Bisher ist jeder der gegen japanische Staatsanleihen (JGB) gewettet hat übelst auf den Bauch gefallen.... Da der letzte Schritt des 1.37 trln $ schweren und zu knapp 66% in JGB´s investierten GPIF ( mehr Details GPIF Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan ) allerdings doch recht "unkonventionell" daherkommt ist der Ausgang zwischen Bullen und Bären wohl ungewisser denn je.....
H/T Claire Morel / Reuters‘Japan’s brewing fiasco’ SocGen’s Dylan Grice via FT Alphaville
The biggest JGB holder on the planet – the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) – which has already admitted it’s no longer able to roll maturing bonds, has announced that it will open credit lines so it doesn’t have to sell them to fund its obligations…
To spell that out: we are going into a year in which the government has ¥213 trillion of bonds to roll over… and the biggest holder of JGBs is openly admitting he has no new inflows of money
Click here & here to get the entire report... Some pretty scary charts & the following stat............Den kompletten Research Report gibt es hier & hier ... Einige extrem unschöne Charts sowie die nachfolgende Zahl..........
So who will fund the Japanese government´s deficit in the future? It is not likely to be the international capital markets, especially if its bonds are offering only a 1.5% yield.
But if international investors were to demand triple that, pricing JGBs in line with international bond market peers (all priced too generously in my opinion) the game would soon be up because Japan´s current debt service already amounts to 35% of pre-bond issuance revenues.
H/T Zero Hedge
For more on this topic make sure you visit the excellent slide show Japan - The Point Of No Return from Vitaliy N. Katsenelson via Barry
Wer mehr zu diesem Thema sehen möchte dem empfehle ich die erstklassige Ansammlung von Charts Japan - The Point Of No Return von Vitaliy N. Katsenelson via Barry
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