Ox bladder does Not taste like Chicken

Wild posting header I know... trust me, it all fits in by the end of the reading...

Another frustrating market day.. here we go..

Market is up about 130pts as of 2:38p

OK, fine.. why?

"Wednesday's gains were pushed by strong manufacturing data and positive signals from Greece. U.S. factories boosted output in January by the most in seven months, according to the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index. And the Commerce Department said construction spending rose 1.5 percent in December for the fifth consecutive monthly gain. "This is a market that is hungry for good news, and when it gets it, it responds very positively," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist for RidgeWorth Investments."  (AP)


Oh Jeebus Crispus!!~  What a load of...  Hmm.. Where to begin:

~ Bougatsa- a Greek pastry & breakfast treat


1)  For those who didn't look at yesterday's blog posting, Greek debt talks have dramatically taken a turn for the worse with the Greek govt calling an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss what to do.  Banks don't want to take any real losses (negotiated credit markdowns thus far have been covered by insurance so banks and investors don't take any real hit)   They want Greece to cut pensions and lower the minimum wage, something Greek politicians know if they do, will be political suicide at minimum and anarchy & overthrow at worst.   


Of course for some inexplicable reason, Greece still feels the need to calm and soothe markets so a government spokesman released an empty statement that negotiations will conclude within days. 


And this empty piece of (fill in cuss word) statement raised hopes!  


I guess Rat investors are much like horny teenage boys-- it doesn't take much effort to raise their um.. hopes.  

2)  People read headlines and take positives on face value.  I mean who wants to dispute anything 'good' if it keeps the ruse of a growing economy going and Wall St profits growing?   Sooo.. the market also is up today because "construction spending rose 1.5 percent in December for the fifth consecutive monthly gain".  That figure, called PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) which is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector, was at 54.1 for January.  December 2011's PMI was 53.1  So.. Yay!!!  


Oh, but wait-- what was PMI last year, say February 2011?  It was 59.8.  And what was it in March and April?  It was 59.7.    In fact here's the chart for the past 12 months.



Jan 2012 54.1   Jul 2011  51.4
Dec 2011 53.1   Jun 2011 55.8
Nov 2011 52.2 May 2011 54.2
Oct 2011  51.8   Apr 2011 59.7
Sep 2011 52.5 Mar 2011 59.7
Aug 2011 52.5       Feb 2011 59.8


I guess an eternal optimist can say January's figures are the best in seven months and this means things are Really getting better.   And a person in the world of reality can say seven months later, and the manufacturing sector's production still hasn't matched last July.  We know which choice the (fill in your most vile cussword) Investors made.   How about you?

3)  I thought the quote at the end of the AP story was interesting and telling.. I will repeat it:  "This is a market that is hungry for good news, and when it gets it, it responds very positively,"   


Hmm... Hungry for good news... Hungry for pretend good news... Hungry for Anything to justify the market rally.    Reminds me of of the TV show "Fear Factor"- there's a part of the show where contestants have to eat something truly disgusting and vile, like ox bladder, tarantula or elephant penis and if they don't, they can't continue with the competition.    


Usually there's three kinds of contestants:  the first are normally brave and courageous-- the type to skydive or climb mountains, but when it comes to the grotesque, they have too much dignity and common sense to ingest something putrid into their healthy bodies and pretend its 'food'.    The second type are similar to the first, but they psych themselves-- convince themselves that everything in the world ultimately tastes like chicken, and engorges on the inedible nastiness.


Then there's the third type- they're hungry.  Hungry not necessarily to eat but hungry for money... hungry to win... to be better than everyone else and nothing is off the table in that pursuit.  So they will eat the horribleness; they will devour and overtly go 'Mmmmm' to try to convince everyone else the rot their eating is something delicious because to this kind of person, there is no such thing as inedible or indigestible-- everything is an eating opportunity; a means to profit and win.


Guess which type Investors are?

The Bailout Bus Keeps Rolling......

Looking into the PMI Investor Presentation & MGIC Investor Presentation and their "sky high" ( not just a few billions.... ) in exposure it should be clear that this is also another "hidden" bailout for the banks......The knowledge that the "Bailout Bus" keeps on rolling might explain Cramer´s Bull Case For Banks.... Even if he wasn´t honest enough to mention the "moral hazard trade" in his 10 reason to rush into the banking sector.....;-)

Ein Blick in die PMI Investor Präsentation & MGIC Investor Präsentation die einen "astronomisch" hohen Betrag ( rede nicht nur von einigen Mrd... ) an versicherten Schadensfällen ausweisen genügt um zu erkennen das hier neben den PMI Aktionären und Anleihebesitzern vor allem die Banken begünstigt werden die seinerzeit die Versicherung gezeichnet haben......Genau diese Bailoutgarantie erklärt auch Cramer´s Bull Case For Banks... Schade nur das er nicht so ehrlich gewesen ist den "Moral Hazard Trade" unter den 10 Kaufaurgumenten in Sachen Banken aufgeführt hat.... ;-)

H/T Matson

Insuring Against an End to Moral Hazard WSJ

The bailout bus keeps rolling. Last week's programs to forgive mortgage principal were good news for mortgage insurers. But PMI Group's share-price surge had an extra lift from Freddie Mac.

The mortgage giant gave a new PMI subsidiary the green light to write insurance for loans that Freddie guarantees. PMI needed the blessing—and got a similar one from Fannie Mae—because its main subsidiary may be banned in some states from writing policies if it breaches regulatory capital rules.

If that happened, PMI's future would be in even greater doubt. The company lost nearly $1.6 billion over the past two years and warned that "as a result of continued losses, we will need to raise significant additional capital and/or achieve significant statutory regulatory relief."

What is curious is that Freddie's and Fannie's support potentially puts taxpayer dollars at risk, while helping PMI shareholders—the company's stock jumped more than 40% last week. The moves also come as debate continues over how much skin in the game homeowners should have.

Help for PMI, and for Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp. last month, is also notable because Freddie has suggested that firms like this mightn't be able to meet future claims.

Freddie in its annual filing said "some of our mortgage insurers lack sufficient ability to fully meet all of their expected lifetime claims-paying obligations to us as they emerge." PMI has the lowest credit rating of Freddie's rated mortgage-insurance counterparties.

With the government, through Fannie and Freddie, willing to play such games to keep small fry like PMI and MGIC alive, it shows quite how far away Uncle Sam is from a real solution on "too big to fail."

See also As GSE Delinquencies Hit All Time Highs, What About The Monolines? ZH

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