Showing posts with label doubling down. Show all posts
Showing posts with label doubling down. Show all posts

Monday, August 18, 2008

Deutsche Bank Is Doubling Down In Vegas.....

I´m pretty sure that the statement "Problem loans stable" at page 27 from their latest results won´t be repeated in the comming quarters...... Throwing good money after bad money has not often worked. This is especially true when you see the clip further down and watch the latest Las Vegas Statistics..... You really have to work at Wall Street or the financial complex to see light at the end of the tunnel..... I assume that the light is coming from a fast moving train ....

Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die Aussage "Problem loans stable" siehe Seite 27 letztes Quartalsergebnis in den nächten Quartalen sicher nicht mehr wiederholt werden kann..... Schlechtem Geld noch gutes hinterherzuschmeissen ist in den seltensten Fällen die richtige Entscheidung gewesen. Seht Euch den Clip zu dem im Feuer stehenden Projekt an und werft einen Blick auf die letzten Las Vegas Besucherstatistiken und man muß ziemlich "kühn" kalkulieren um hier auch nur ein kleines Licht am Ende des Tunnels zu sehen.... Ich tippe darauf das das Licht eher das eines heranrauschenden Zuges sein wird...... Hier noch ein passender Artikel der FAZ Ausgespielt in Las Vegas. Lesenwert!

DEUTSCHE BANK dug itself into a $10 billion commercial-real-estate hole. So far, the German bank is doing a decent job clambering out. But the tale raises questions about Deutsche's judgment.

The bank's exit from its Manhattan hole is off to a fast start. Just last summer, Deutsche helped real-estate mogul Harry Macklowe buy seven office towers for $7.5 billion. Mr. Macklowe soon ran into trouble. But Deutsche persuaded him to surrender the buildings, avoiding painstaking foreclosure proceedings.

Three of the towers have already been sold, two are under contract and the last two are expected to go soon. True, they're selling for about 25% less than Mr. Macklowe paid, and Deutsche will lose money. But a swift exit at a modest loss is probably the best outcome that could have been achieved.

Las Vegas, though, is another story. Deutsche is foreclosing on the $3.5 billion Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino after developer Ian Bruce Eichner defaulted. Rather than sell the half-finished project into a depressed market, Deutsche will take possession.


> I especially like the somment " The concept that will stand the test of time"..... Impossible to suppress Schadenfreude while watching the clip..... :-)
> Besonders beeindruckend ist in diesem Zusammenhang der Schlußsatz "The concept that will stand the test of time"......... Zwecklos bei Ansicht des Clips nicht in Schadenfreude zu verfallen.... :-)
Deutsche will have to raise its bet with another $1 billion investment in the development, at the same time local operator Boyd Gaming has shelved a $5 billion project on the Strip. That looks like a risky double-down for a bank already exposed to MGM Mirage's cash-strapped $11 billion CityCenter project nearby.
> I´m not sure if they are already on the hook but when even Dubai World is late in raising as much as $3.5 billion for their $11.2 billion CityCenter project in Las Vegas it is not a very good sign.....MGM, Dubai Fall Behind on $3.5 Billion Loan for Las Vegas Plan . Watch the folling clip and it is no wonder why they are falling behind.....
> Ich bin mir nicht sicher ob die Deutsche Bank hier schon im "Feuer" steht. Wenn aber selbst Dubai als Hauptinvestor momentan Probleme hat Kredite zu bekommen ist dies sicher kein gutes Zeichen..... MGM, Dubai Fall Behind on $3.5 Billion Loan for Las Vegas Plan . Schaut Euch den Clip an und es ist wenig verwunderlich warum es Finanzierungsprobleme gibt.......
Project CityCenter - Las Vegas Luxury Condos

Even so, Deutsche's biggest hole may not be in Vegas, but in its reputation. It made the sucker's mistake of overlooking history, backing two racy developers with well-chronicled failures. It also was apparently blinded by the market's former momentum. In New York, it expected skyscraper rents to soar by 75%. In Las Vegas, it seems to have overestimated growth prospects and Sin City's resilience to a slowing U.S. economy.

Deutsche might be forgiven for failing to anticipate the full extent of the credit crunch. It has nevertheless revealed two weak cards in its hand: its ability to assess both borrowers and risk.

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Sunday, June 15, 2008

Investors Hit $10bn Loss In US Financials

Never catch a falling knife.......It remains to be seen if the Sovereign Wealth Funds won´t double down..... :-) Just watch todays news on Barclays....... It seems like they still havn´t lost enough..... At least they bought into a strong currency..... ;-)

Greife nie in ein fallendes Messer..... Bin wirklich gespannt ob sich die staatlich kontrollierten Fonds wirklich ernsthaft zurückhalten. Das Beispiel Barclays zeigt momentan noch ein anderes Bild. Mann könnte auch sarkastisch sagen das hier der "Anfängerfehler" gemacht wird und die Positionen "verbilligt" werden..... :-). Die Verluste sind anscheinend noch nicht schmerzhaft genug..... Immerhin haben Sie sich dank der "gelungenen" Investment in eine "starke" Währung eingekauft ...... ;-) Investors hit $10bn loss in US financials FT
Investors who backed US financial companies’ drive to raise much-needed capital are sitting on nearly $10bn in paper losses amid a continued slump in the sector’s shares, a Financial Times analysis shows.

The negative returns suffered by investors are likely to make it more difficult and expensive for US financial groups to tap equity markets if, as expected, the credit crunch forces them to raise more capital.

“Raising funds from equity investors is becoming increasingly complicated because the performance of financial stocks during and after the spate of fund-raisings has been so abysmal,” said a Wall Street banker who advises institutions.

The setbacks suffered by equity investors come as sovereign wealth funds – a rich source of capital at the beginning of the crisis – have moved to the sidelines after seeing the value of investments fall in companies such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.

Investors who bought the $65bn-plus in common and convertible shares issued by large US financial institutions since last October have seen their total investments fall by more than $9.7bn – a negative return of about 15 per cent – according to an FT analysis of Dealogic data.

> I doubt that all of the SWF were as smart as the following....

> Glaube kaum das alle SWF ähnlich weitsichtig wie der nachfolgende agiert haben.....

FT Abu Dhabi’s Adia, meanwhile, had structured its November investment in Citi in a way that gave it the right to go back and strike better terms on its deal, heightening its downside protection to match the terms GIC and Kia struck with Citi.

> Lets hope for them that this kind of term is still in place during the next few capital raising attempts from Citi.... :-)

> Bleibt zu hoffen das diese Kalusel auch noch nach der 3. und 4. Runde von Kapitalerhöhungen bei Citi in Kraft ist...... :-)

Those who took part in the $1.2bn recapitalisation of the bond insurer Ambac last March are nursing paper losses of more than 70 per cent. And fund managers who backed a $1.2bn capital raising by fellow monoline insurer MBIA have seen their investment shrink by 60 per cent.

Shareholders in Citigroup who thought that the sharp fall in the stock made last month’s $4bn share issuance a buying opportunity face a 24 per cent loss.

Of the 20-plus fund raisings by US banks and insurers since the onset of the crisis, only two – by the student loan provider Sallie Mae and the regional lender Sovereign Bancorp – show a small positive return

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