Prime Time Humor.....

Thanks to Gary Varvel!



















Souring Prime Loans Compound Mortgage Woes WSJ



MBA: Record 13.2 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q2 Calculated Risk

The Market Ticker

Delinquency cure rates refer to the percentage of delinquent loans returning to a current payment status each month. Cure rates have declined from an average of 45% during 2000-2006 to the currently level of 6.6%. It is important not only to observe total roll rates, but delinquency cure rates as well, according to Managing Director Roelof Slump.

In addition to prime cure rates dropping to 6.6%, Alt-A cure rates have dropped to 4.3%, from an average of 30.2%, and subprime is down to 5.3% from an average of 19.4%. 'Whereas prime had previously been distinct for its relatively high level of delinquency recoveries, by this measure prime is no longer significantly outperforming other sectors,' said Slump.

More On "The Less Bad Is Good" Mantra.......

The perfect fit to yesterdays post But Still Better Than Expected........ ....

Paßt wie die Faust aufs Auge zum gestrigen Post But Still Better Than Expected........

Refining, the weakest link in the recovery Stephen Schork via FT Alphaville

Demand, not only for gasoline, but for other major products markets as well, is going the wrong way, i.e. from the top left to the bottom right on the charts. Thus, Big Oil is straining under the weight of poor margins.

It is now hard to reconcile these earnings reports, demand was lousy in the second quarter (and it not any better today). Yet, this market was being fed a fantastic lie back then… the less bad is good mantra.

Thus, whereas spot crude oil on the NYMEX finished the first quarter just below $50 a barrel (49.66) it finished the second quarter just below $70 (69.89). Crude oil rallied 40 percent as profits at the world’s largest oil companies were tumbling.

Why?

Because this market wanted to ignore the obvious and lull itself to sleep with silly pseudo-intellectual catchphrases… green shoots, crocuses, mustard seeds and this season’s rookie of the year… the second derivative.

Thus, while we were led to believe that demand for oil was rising in the second quarter, hence the justification for that 40 percent surge on the NYMEX, we now have the balance sheets from Exxon, Shell et al. that prove it was a lie.

Look at the screenshot of headlines we pasted on the top of today’s report. Profits for Big Oil are down as demand is at generational lows.

However, look at the very first headline, the NYMEX was higher esterday because “… corporate earnings boost confidence…”

Huh?

According to this one article, demand for oil and therefore profits for oil companies are down, but the NYMEX rallied yesterday because Motorola (mobile phone maker) had a smaller than projected loss and Calphalon (cookware) and Paper Mate (writing instruments) had better than expected profits

.

You really cannot make this up......

Das ist so absurd das man sich unweigerlich fragt ob wir schon wieder den 1. April haben.... :-)

More Green Shoots...... US Corporate Default Rate Edition

Green Shoots as far as the eye can see......... The "Green Shoots" or "Second Derivitive" nonsense will vanish as fast as the other buzz words like "Contained" , "Decoupling", "Cash On The Sidelines" , "Stock Are Cheap" etc......

Noch mehr Futter für all diejenigen die in jeder veröffentlichten Zahl momentan Green Shoots erkennen ..... Just kidding...... Bin mir sicher das die Bezeichnungen "Green Shoots" oder "Second Derivative" sich nahtlos in die Reihe der letzten Modebezeichnungen ( "Contained", Decoupling", "Cash On The Sidelines" usw ) einreihen werden. Warum wundert es mich eigentlich nicht das alle permanent suggerieren das das nun der Zeitpunkt gekommen ist einzusteigen.....

Thanks to Telegraph

FT Alphaville S&P said on Monday the US corporate default rate had hit a seven-year high:

Corporate defaults continue to rise rapidly in 2009, nearly matching the number in all of 2008. Through May 13, 2009, 121 issuers defaulted, affecting debt worth $297.22 billion. By comparison, 126 defaults were recorded in all of 2008, affecting debt worth $433 billion. Of the 121 defaults in 2009, 85 are from the U.S., 21 are from emerging markets, seven are from Europe, six are from Canada, and one each is from Australia and Japan.

Nice to see that markets are allowed to work in at least some parts of the market........Now add the following chart & read examples like this ( see Another Private Equity Deal That Went Bust Within 24 Months ) and you get even more green shoots.... Sarcasm off......

Immerhin schön zu sehen das dem Markt zumindest in einigen ausgewählten Teilen der Wirtschaft erlaubt wird zu arbeiten....... Der nachfolgende Chart kombiniert mit Beispielen wie diesem lassen erahnen das hier in der nächsten Zeit noch die ein oder andere nette Überraschung auf uns wartet.......

Number Of The Day " Percentage Of US Companies With A Junk Rating"

About 50% of U.S. companies have below-investment-grade credit ratings