China´s National Bureau Of Statistics Is Funny.....

This kind of "accounting" makes even the BLS & BEA jealous.....

Diese Zahlen können es fast mit "Berchnungsmodellen" ( denke hier besonders an den Arbeitsmarktbericht und das GDP ) der USA aufnehmen........ Allen die immer noch auf dem Trip sind das China die Lokomotive für die Erholung sein wird sollten sich nicht von den offiziellen Zahlen blenden lassen und Ihre Erwartungen merklich zurückschrauben......

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is gathered in a “scientific and realistic method,” Ma Jiantang, the agency’s director, said at a briefing in Beijing yesterday

Albert Edwards LOL China FT Alphaville

As the debate over how bad things in China are rages on, growing Sino-sceptic Albert Edwards offers his two pennies on the country’s latest statistics.

Well, to be accurate, he laughs out loud at them:

That this outturn was bang in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg makes it all the more unbelievable in my mind. All other economic data worldwide have been surprising massively on the downside and China should be no exception. A few hours earlier, for example, South Korea reported Q4 GDP had declined a hefty 5.6% QoQ, massively worse than a Reuter’s consensus which looked for a contraction of 2.7%! I naively thought that this QoQ decline was already annualized, but it was not. On a US style of reporting, the South Korean economy contracted at a 20% annualised rate in Q4. Asia is in depression. Whatever the heavily manipulated Chinese GDP is telling us, that economy must now be contracting. The Yuan needs to be devalued.

So the key thing that’s fishy according to Edwards is just how bang on line the numbers were. As for Tim Geithner’s bizarre declaration on Thursday that China was manipulating its currency (presumably a call for China to allow the yuan to appreciate?) Alberts actually believes the reverse is needed. The yuan must be devalued.

And he’s got a point. As he highlights, inter-regional trade within Asia is what appears to be suffering the most (blowing all notions of “decoupling” firmly out the window). This is clearly reflected by the sharp fall in Japanese exports, which fell no less than 35 per cent year-on-year in the last quatrer according to the latest figures. As Alberts stresses (his emphasis):

…we cannot highlight strongly enough how truly mindboggling Japan’s collapse in exports to China are. Last July they were expanding at a 16% yoy pace. Now they are contracting at a 35% yoy rate! This is a phenomenon throughout the region. Hence despite the notoriously manipulated Chinese GDP data showing a shocking slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% yoy, I would eat my hat if the Chinese economy was doing anything other than contracting right now.

So there you have it readers, if the Chinese economy proves not to be contracting Mr. Edwards will - for he has said so - eat his hat.


> Combine the economic slump with the suppression from the comminust party you have a very "explosive" mixture..... And i think the "events" in China will easily rival the protest we are already facing in parts of Europe ( see European governments face protests over economy / Reuters )

> Wenn man die Talfahrt jetzt mit der Unterdrückung der herrschenden Partei kombiniert dürfte das für eine extrem explosive "Stimmung" sorgen. Teile Europas machen gerade vor was trotz Zensur auch in China ans Licht kommen wird ( siehe European governments face protests over economy / Reuters )

More On China´s Slowdown......

Havn´t heard the word decoupling for a long long time....... It will be interesting what will happen to the population will react when the slowdown intensifies ( i think it will ).... This can easily spread into trouble for the communist party..... UPDATE via Naked Capitalism Roubini Foresees Chinese Hard Landing

Könnt Ihr Euch noch an die schöne These erinnern das China sich vom Rest der Welt abkoppeln kann..... Denke es wird sehr interessant zu beobachten wie die Bevölkerung auf einen dramatische Verlangsamung des Wachstums reagieren wird.....Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die schon jetzt vorhandene Unzufriedenheit leicht explodieren könnte. In der Verlangsamung liegt also ein gewaltiges Maß an politischem Sprengstoff.... Bleibt zu hoffen das die kommunistische Partei Ihre bereits jetzt höchst fragwürdige Politik nicht noch weiter "überzieht"....... Passend hierzu via Naked Capitalism Roubini Foresees Chinese Hard Landing

WSJ Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. said three Chinese customers have defaulted on long-term iron-ore purchase agreements, but that two other buyers have agreed to step in -- albeit paying a much lower price. In addition, the new buyers, which are already shareholders, agreed to underwrite a capital-raising effort and they could end up owning as much as 40% in the Australian miner.

Mount Gibson said the new sales agreements were struck at a much lower price and its profits would take a "material" hit in the financial year that ends June 30, 2009.

The Australian company's willingness to accept a much lower price for its ore, at least over the next couple of months, shows how quickly a global slowdown has pegged back China's economy, forcing Chinese steel mills to slow production and pushing down iron-ore prices.

UPDATE via Bloomberg Scrap-Steel Buyers Cancel Purchases as Prices Tumble

Havn´t Heard The Word Decoupling For A Long Time......

I think it is safe to say that the downturn isn´t solely the result from the government efforts ( raising price for gasoline, hiking reserve requirements & rates, lending restrictions, yuan appreciation etc ) to slow down the economy.... Just one look at the CIMC Chart ( claimes to make 50 percent of all shipping containers ) is enough to see that the slowdown in the US has spread already to Europe and is now hitting Asia/China. It will be interesting to see if the communist party in China will still be able to keep the people "quiet" & "under control" during a longer lasting downturn......

Denke es ist nicht vermessen zu sagen das sich die nachfolgende Übersicht nicht alleine aus den Versuchen der chinesischen Regierung ( höhere Benzinpreise, Erhöhung der Mindestreservesätze und Zinsen, Verschörfung der Kreditbedingungen, Aufwertung des Yuan´s usw ) geschuldet ist.... Ein weiter Blick auf den CIMC Chart ( stellen nach eigenen Angaben 50% aller Schiffahrtscontainer her ) weist ebenfalls darauf hin das die viel zu oft gehörte These der "Abkopplung" einzelner Regionen nichts weiter als Wunschdenken gewesen ist. Der US Abschwung hat Europa bereits voll erfasst und ist gerade dabei Asien und den Rest der Welt mit voller Wucht zu treffen.

Bin wirklich gespannt ob der Kommunitischen Partei gelingt auch während einer länger anhaltenden wirtschaftlichen Schwächephase die Kontrolle im Land zu behalten. Habe nachdem was ich in letzter Zeit in Sachen Umwelt, Korruption, Unabhängigkeit der Justiz, Presse-und Meinungsfreiheit usw gehört habe ensthafte Zweifel....

Booming China Suddenly Worries That a Slowdown Is Taking Hold NYT



UPDATE:
Brad Setser has a different view

Brad Setser hat eine andere Sicht der Dinge

Executive confidence "Doom and gloom" / Economist

Keep this in mind when you hear that some parts of the world are decoupling from the US..... Sounds almost too good to be true....

Diesen Chart sollte man sich vor Augen halten wenn wie so oft vom abkoppeln einzelner Märkte von den schwachen USA gesprochen wird. Wäre fast zu schön um wahr zu sein....

Economist

WHAT holiday cheer? The latest quarterly poll of chief financial officers conducted by Duke University, Tilburg University and CFO magazine, a sister publication of The Economist, makes for grim reading. Of the 1,275 finance chiefs quizzed, those in Europe and America were more gloomy about their regional economies than ever before, with pessimists far outnumbering optimists. A third of companies in both regions, from a wide range of industries, said that they were directly affected by the recent credit-market turmoil. Optimism is relatively higher in Asia.