Showing posts with label collateral. Show all posts
Showing posts with label collateral. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Foreigners Holding 75 % of Greece’s Current Debt Stock

One of the main reasons why the "Smoke & Mirrors" ( excellent link via Yves Smith / NC ) Greece "Rescue" & a hidden bailout ( see the ECB U-TURN My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) has been orchestrated..... It´s still the number one goal to bail out banks & insurers ( see PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks ).....Nobody is too small too fail....Sarcastically one can argue that in hindsight it seems the Lehman "incident" was one of the best things that could have happened to the industry......

Denke das wir hier einen der Hauptgründe für den "Smoke & Mirrors" ( fantastische Zusammenfassung via Naked Capitalism ) Rettungsversuch bzw die indirekten ( siehe die 180 Grad Drehung der EZB My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) Bailoutbemühungen sehen.... Es geht wie leider immer noch darum Banken und Versicherungen vor möglichen Schäden zu "beschützen" ( siehe PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks )...... Keiner ist unwichtig genug um zu fallen...."Spitz" formuliert könnte man fast meinen das im Nachhinein Lehman für die Branche der bestmöglich anzunehmende Unfall gewesen ist......

The kindness of (bond market) strangers FT Alphaville

With foreigners already holding three quarters of Greece’s current debt stock, convincing them to buy even more becomes increasingly difficult. Here’s what Deutsche’s Gillian Edgeworth says:

"Euroland insists that the Greek sovereign continues to access the market if possible. The sovereign issuer will hope that foreigners remain keen buyers of bonds, though foreigners already hold 75% of the total debt stock.

In the absence of further foreign buying, local institutions will only likely be able to absorb government issuance if domestic banks continue to draw off [European Central Bank] liquidity facilities in size."

Lucky, then, that the ECB decided to revise its acceptance rules for the collateral pledged by Greek banks on Friday

Too bad for the "architects" that so far the spreads havn´t narrowed in a meaningful way.....;-)

Leicht problematisch für die Bailoutakrobaten lediglich das sich zumindest momentan die Spreads nicht wesentlich "eingeengt" haben...... ;-)

Greek debt – spreading like it’s 1999 FT Alphaville
It looks like Hellenic Republic bond spreads over German bunds are back at 1999 levels — when Greece first attempted to join the eurozone but failed because it didn’t meet the required economic criteria



No wonder Gold has been hitting a series of new ATH in € terms ...

Da verwundert es wenig das Gold seit Wochen eine Serie von neues Allzeithoch auf € Basis markiert.....

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

BBVA Credit Quality Reality Check.....Spain & Portugal NPA Almost Double To 5.1 Percent

Grim is no overstatement......... Keep in mind that BBVA is probably one of the stronger players ( asset management, south america exposure ) when it comes to the Spanish banking system.....No wonder the "complacency" hit a high just two weeks ago...;-)

Übel ist sicher keine Übertreibung.... Verweise vorsorglich mal darauf hin das BBVA ( Asset Management & Südamerika Diversifikation ) als einer der stärkeren Spieler im spanischen Bankenmarkt gilt....Kein Wunder das weltweit die "Sorglosigkeit" noch vor 2 Wochen neue Hochs erreciht hat.... ;-)

BBVA Q4 Report / PDF
Doubtful risks stood at €15,602m, showing a 24.8% increase over the level reported at 30-Sep-2009.

The NPA ratio rose to 4.3%. This was higher than the third-quarter figure due to the aforementioned increase in doubtful assets. In Spain & Portugal the ratio was 5.1%
cleaner / schärfere Version

The Group’s coverage ratio of 57% at 31-Dec-2009 is considered adequate because if the value of the collateral associated to these risks is included (€16,842m), coverage would increase to 165%......
>Let´s hope their collateral comment has priced in the coming implosion of the Spanish housing market ( so far the market has only fallen slightly UPDATE: This BRILLIANT INTERACTIVE CHART gives an excellent hint that we have almost seen nothing yet )..... Otherwise the coverage ratio would be not quite "prudent"......Keep the following stat in mind....

> Bleibt zu hoffen das hier die jahrelange "Implosion" speziell des spanischen Immobilienmarktes eingepreist ist ( bisher ist der Verfall "moderat" gewesen UPDATE: Dieser brilliante INTERAkTIVE CHART zeigt eindrucksvoll das in Spanien in Sachen Korrektur noch "Nachholbedarf" hat ) ...... Ansonsten wären die vorgenommenen Rückstellungen vorsichtig ausgedrückt nicht gerade "weitsichtig".... Dazu sollte man sich nachfolgende Zahl ins Gedächnis rufen.....

Spain Bubble Watch

For a decade, the Spanish housing sector enjoyed uninterrupted growth, as low interest rates encouraged borrowing. Average house prices have nearly quadrupled during the past 10 years. About 750,000 homes were built in Spain in 2006 -- more than in France, Germany and the U.K. combined.

> Combine the number with unemployment rate hitting almost 20 percent and the picture isn´getting better.....

> Wenn man diese Zahl mit einer Arbeitslosenquote nahe 20% kombiniert dürfte klar sein was sich hier die nächsten Jahre abspielen wird......

UPDATE FT Alphaville

....meanwhile, it seems the group was forced to increase provisions after following through on actual foreclosures and acquisitions. In other words, it wasn’t until the bank acquired the assets that it realised the collateral had been misvalued on its books by €200m. The heart of the problem being the misvaluation of the collateral backing the loans.

>With this kind of accounting it is no wonder BBVA has manage to post a profit......But in comparison to Wells Fargo BBVA isn´t loocking so bad......Banks & balance sheet qualities....... Here we go again.... Nice to see that they are still talking about their "strong" capital ratios & the "nice" dividend ( 30% payout ratio )......

>Bei solch "konservativer" Bilanzierung ist es kein Wunder das BBVA es geschafft hat einen Gewinn auszuweisen....Wells Fargo mußte ganz andere "Verrenkungen" unternehmen ... Nur gut das wir in Sachen Bankenbilanzqualität so große Fortschritte gemacht haben..... Beruhigend zu hören das noch immer von der starken Kapitalausstattung und netten Dividende ( 30& Gewinnausschüttung ) geschwärmt wird....

In Spain & Portugal it ( coverage ratio ) was 48%.

>With over 90 percent of mortgages tied to variable rates they can only pray that the ECB will stay on hold for another decade....

>Da in Spanien über 90% der Hypotheken variabel verzinst sind dürfte dort Stoßgebete in Richtung EZB gehen das die Zinsen noch jahrelang auf dem Tief verharren werden....

>Does anybody remember this "fine tuning" news from Jan. 2009.......

>Erinnert sich noch irgendjemand an die "Fine Tuning" Operation der Banco de Espana vom Januar 2009....

How Not To Restore Confidence....."United Arab Emirates & Spain Edition"

Spanish website Cotizalia reports that Spain’s banks and cajas are negotiating on a one-to-one basis with the Bank of Spain to “fine-tune” their 2008 accounts in order to avoid taking catastrophic write-downs on lans.

According to the article, the central bank has agreed to allow the banks to increase the “calendar of amortisation” of these troubled assets, which are said to be mostly loans to property developers.

>Add the following trade ( couldn´t resist.... ) from the Spanish central bank to the mix and i´ll bet that hand in hand with the banking implosion the so far praised Banco de Espana will face some serious headwinds......

>Bei Begutachtung der o.g. Daten und des nachfolgenden Trades ( konnte nicht widerstehen...) wird eher früher als später vom Glanz der bisher so gelobten spanischen Zentralbank nicht viel übrig bleiben.....

Banco de España has already been delving into the covered bond market with money from gold-sale proceeds FT Alphaville May 2009

Barclays Capital on Wednesday morning cites Spain’s Expansion newspaper on a report that Banco de España has already been delving into the covered bond market with money from gold-sale proceeds .

We note that the latest available data, as reported to the IMF for March, show that Spanish gold holdings at end-March were 9.054mn oz, unchanged since end-July 2007. That said, it should also be noted that Spain slashed its gold holdings during 2005-2008: from 16.826mn oz at end-2004 to 9.054mn in July 2007.

PS: Iberia’s weighting is almost 20% of European GDP & Greece only 3%....

PS: Spanien & Portugal stehen mal eben schlappe 20% des European GDP.... Griechenland für 3%.....

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

ECB: Record 442 billion Euros “Stimulus by Stealth”

HT to Alea for the excellent headline. After reading the latest ECB "Instability" Report....... & the almost irresistable conditions ( despite news like this ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities & Adjustment of risk control measures for newly issued asset-backed securities and for uncovered bank bonds ) it is no surprise to see such a huge number. .......A no brainer...... I can imagine Trichet is already praying that this will work.....I have some serious doubts......Liquidity is & was not the issue..... Core problems ( impaired bank balance sheets, not enough creditworthy borrowers ) are still unsolved and are getting worse on a daily basis..... Update : Spanish banks to get €90 billion bailout

Dank an Alea für die sehr treffende Überschrift. Nachdem ich den letzten ECB "Instability" Report....... gelesen habe und wenn man die unwiderstehlichen Konditionen ( trotz leicht verschärfter Bedingungen / siehe ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities & Adjustment of risk control measures for newly issued asset-backed securities and for uncovered bank bonds ) berücksichtigt dürfte die Höhe nicht wirklich überraschen. Eine echte Lizenz zum Gelddrucken.....Kann mir bildlich vorstellen wie Trichet & Co beten, das dieser Kraftakt endlich dazu führt, das die Kreditmärkte wieder wie gewünscht funktionieren ( Update Banken tragen Milliarden zurück zur EZB ).... Ich denke das auch dieser Versuch maximal etwas Linderung in Form von geringeren Spreads verschaffen wird..... Dummerweise ist mangelnde Liquidität nicht das Problem. Solange die Problematik der bilanztechnisch insolventen Banken nicht gelöst wird und man anerkennt das es im Angesicht einer lang anhaltenden Rezession einfach zu wenig kreditwürdige Unternehmen gibt, dürfte sich die Lage weiter verschlechtern. Wenn man so will handeln die Banken aus Ihrer Sicht ironischerweise momentan das erste Mal nach Jahren der "Trunkenheit" richtig. Tragisch aus deutscher Sicht ist vor allem das unser Bankensystem trotz fehlender eigener Blase dank der desaströsen Exzesse besonders der Landesbanken ( folgerichtig kommen die Sparkassen als Anteilseigner dank massivster Wertberichtigungen auf Ihre LB Anteile in ernste Schieflagen, was das besonders für den Mittelstand bedeutet kann man leicht erahnen..... ) eher einen bzw. den Spitzenplatz der Problemliste belegt..... Updadte: EZB pumpt Rekordbetrag in den Markt FTD & Spanish banks to get €90 billion bailout


ECB pumps €442bn into banking system FT
The European Central Bank on Wednesday pumped hundreds of billions of euros in one-year loans into the eurozone’s weakened banking system, making record amounts of emergency finance available in a bid to unlock credit markets and revive the region’s economies.

In a dramatic step dubbed “stimulus by stealth” in financial markets, the ECB lent €442.2bn for 12 months to more than 1,100 banks at its current benchmark interest rate of 1 per cent.

The high demand for the funds, in what was the ECB’s first ever auction for one-year loans, reflected a growing realisation by the banks that emergency funding may not be available again on such favour-able terms.

The central bank’s action could boost the eurozone’s recovery prospects by lowering market interest rates and creating more scope for banks to lend to the private sector.

The ECB action, which attracted 1,121 bidders – more than usual in ECB operations – had an immediate impact in driving down overnight and longer-term market interest rates, though the full effects are still to feed through.

Don Smith, economist at inter-dealer broker Icap, said: “The massive scale and undoubted success of this tender almost entirely reflects the cheapness of the funds on offer.”

The previous largest amount injected in a single ECB operation was €348.6bn in December 2007.

The economic impact will depend on whether demand for liquidity in future ECB market operations is reduced as a result of Wednesday’s action, as well as whether banks step up lending.

“They must pass it along,” Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an ECB executive board member, said in Rome.

> "...must pass it along" This kind of rhetoric will only be working in China ( see Number Of The Day "Credit Explosion In China" & todays must see Borrowed in China from FT Alphaville ). Probably ( after FT Alphavilles update DEFINITELY ) the NPL from the not so distant future...... Smaghi probably one of the ECB members pressing for "quantitive easing" ( despite intense discussions among the ECB members so far almost non existent ).......

> "...must pass it along" Wird wohl ein Wunschgedanke bleiben..... In China sieht das momentan ganz anders aus ( siehe Number Of The Day "Credit Explosion In China" sowie die aktuellen Daten für Juni Borrowed in China WAHNSINN!). Da wird solchen Wünschen wenn Sie von der richtigen Stelle geäußert werden "bedingungslos" Folge geleistet. Die Chancen das es sich um die faulen Kredite von morgen handelt sind nicht zu unterschätzen ( nach dem Update von FT Alphaville eine "leichte" Untertreibung )...... Unschwer zu erkennen das Smaghi eher dem Camp innerhalb der EZB angehört die PRO "Quantitive Easing" ( bisher trotz intensiver Diskussionen praktisch kaum vorhanden ) sind......

WSJ

By promising a full allocation of all bids on Wednesday, the ECB has effectively passed responsibility for any easing of policy to the banks themselves, giving license to any institution that thinks it can lend the money profitably into the real economy.
AJ via Alea
“If I were a bank I would be gathering up all the furniture to use as collateral to take part.” said Erik Nielsen, European economist at Goldman Sachs.
AMEN!

Thursday, September 4, 2008

ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities

You know that something was wrong when it was lucrative to dump Australian credit card paper to the ECB..... In general it will be very difficult to shut down the Pandora´s Box of the very broad collateral that all central banks have agreed to accept or at least put up a haircut that is reflecting the underlying risk adequately .... It will be very interesting to see how the central banks balance sheets will look like within a few years...... But compared to what
Chinas central bank is facing Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital ( stunning !! ) the ECB is looking less foolish on a relative basis ......... :-) One of the reasons why i like gold....

Wenn es sich lohnt australische Kreditkartenforderungen zu verpacken und bei der EZB abzuladen wird es aber auch höchste Zeit das die Bedingungen angepasst werden..... Generell ist festzustellen das es den Zentralbanken rund um den Globus sehr schwer fallen dürfte das breite Spektrum das als Sicherheit akzeptiert wird auf ein gesundes Maß zurückzufahren bzw wirklich dem Risiko angemessenen Abschlägen zu versehen. Möchte mir lieber nicht vorstellen wie die Bilanzen der Zentralbanken in ein paar Jahren aussehen werden. Denke es ist nicht verwegen zu behaupten das sich dort ne Menge recht "zweifelhafter" Papiere wiederfinden werden...... Verglichen mit aktuellen Problemen der chinesischen Zentralbank sieht das ganze aber schon wieder halb so wild aus Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital ..... Wirklich unfassbar! :-) Einer der der etlichen Gründe warum ich eine Goldposition im Depot für mehr als angemessen halte..... Aus der FT Deutschland EZB wird bei Sicherheiten vorsichtiger

Bank Bond Risk Soars to Five-Month High as ECB Tightens Lending
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting European bank bonds from default rose to the highest in five months after the European Central Bank tightened its criteria for lending.

The ECB will charge banks more to borrow by reducing the amount it lends to as little as 16.4 percent below the face value of collateral pledged, President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Financial index of subordinated debt for 25 European banks and insurers jumped 12 basis points to 177, the highest since April 1, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 6 p.m. in London.....

The ECB is changing its requirements to head off abuse by financial institutions. The ECB accepts a broader range of collateral for loans than the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, including bonds with credit ratings five levels below AAA and asset-backed securities, prompting some firms to create bonds specifically to use as collateral to borrow from the ECB......

`Gaming the System'
ECB council member Yves Mersch said in an interview last month that the central bank is concerned that some financial institutions are ``gaming the system.''

The ECB lent 467 billion euros ($670 billion) last week to banks with operations in the 15-country euro area. Lenders in Spain have almost tripled borrowings from the Frankfurt-based ECB in the past year, the fastest increase in Europe, according to data from the countries' central banks. Spanish banks have stored up 89 billion euros of asset-backed securities to pledge as collateral, according to UniCredit SpA.

Bonds backed by mortgages and other assets accounted for 18 percent of the ECB's loan collateral at the end of 2007, up from 4 percent in 2004, Fitch Ratings data show.

Sydney-based Macquarie Group Ltd. sold bonds backed by Australian consumer loans in June through a special-purpose company in Ireland, enabling investors to use the notes as collateral to borrow from the ECB.

Haircut
The new rules on collateral, which will take effect from February, will apply a discount of 12 percent on asset-backed bonds, up from as little as 2 percent, Trichet said. Bonds that don't trade or are difficult to value will have an additional so-called haircut of 5 percent, Trichet said. The ECB will lend 5 percent less than the face value of unsecured bank bonds.....

WSJ
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the changes would only affect a “small fraction” of the more than one trillion euros of assets banks submit as collateral each year. Asset-backed securities amounted to 16% of the collateral in 2007.

via the FT ( HT Naked Capitalsim )

The changes, which take effect from February 1, include increases in the average “haircuts” applied to asset-backed securities. A haircut is the amount deducted from the market value of a product when judging its value as collateral. In future, a blanket 12 per cent haircut will apply, replacing a previous sliding scale of between 2 per cent and 18 per cent. There will be penalties for asset-backed securities valued using models and for unsecured bank bonds.

Für alle illiquiden ABS nimmt die EZB künftig unabhängig von Laufzeit oder Verzinsung zunächst einen Bewertungsabschlag von 5 Prozent auf den Nominalwert vor und zieht dann zusätzlich einen Risikoabschlag (Haircut) von pauschal zwölf Prozent ab. Damit ergibt sich ein durchschnittlicher Abschlag von 16,4 Prozent. Bisher gelten für solche Papiere nur Haircuts von 2 bis 18 Prozent


The next table is taken from page 39 GUIDELINE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK and is shwoing the structure before yesterdays announcement

Die nachfolge Tabelle ist von Seite 39 GUIDELINE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK und zeigt die Aufteilung vor der gestrigen Ankündigung.
Here is the ECB release from yesterday introducing a new category

Hier nun die EZB Veröffentlichung von gestern die zudem eine neue Kategorie einführt

4 September 2008 - Biennial review of the risk control measures in Eurosystem credit operations
With regard to the risk control measures applied to marketable assets, a new liquidity category for marketable assets will be introduced (see Table 6 of the “General Documentation”). This new category IV will be composed of credit institution debt instruments (other than Jumbo and traditional covered bank bonds) that were previously part of category III. Old category IV will be renamed category V. The valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets in the different liquidity categories will be as follows

* Assets in this liquidity category that are given a theoretical value (in accordance with Section 6.5 of the “General Documentation”) will be subject to an additional valuation markdown of 5%

As can be seen from the table, assets in new liquidity category V (former liquidity category IV) will be subject to a haircut of 12% regardless of their residual maturity and coupon structure. This corresponds to the level of haircuts that was previously assigned to assets in this liquidity category with a fixed coupon and a residual maturity of over ten years. Furthermore, assets in this liquidity category that are given a theoretical value (in accordance with Section 6.5 of the “General Documentation”) will be subject to an additional valuation haircut. This haircut will be applied directly to the theoretical value of the asset in the form of a valuation markdown of 5%, which corresponds to an additional haircut of 4.4%


Levels of valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets in relation to fixed coupon and zero coupon instruments (percentages)
Liquidity categories
Category I Category II Category III Category IV Category V
Residual
maturity
(years)
Fixed coupon Zero coupon Fixed coupon Zero coupon Fixed coupon Zero coupon Fixed coupon Zero coupon Fixed or zero coupon
0-1 0.50.5111.51.56.56.512*
1-3 1.51.52.52.53388
3-5 2.533.544.559.510
5-7 33.54.555.5610.511
7-10 44.55.56.56.5811.513
>10 5.58.57.5129151420

The ECB will no longer accept securities in which the issuer bank or a related party is providing support to the transaction through currency swaps or emergency backstop loans, Trichet said.

It will also require bonds to be publicly rated and for the rankings to be explained in published reports. The securities should have new reports from rating firms every three months.

``The losers are the banks retaining bonds to raise cheap collateral, now the cost will be higher,'' said Luca Jellinek, a London-based strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``The winners are the rest of the euro system whose collateral has been edged out by retained ABS.''

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Monday, May 19, 2008

The Flexible Friend.....Some Credit Card Data

Thank god the credit crisis and the recession that never started are already over.....But i assume it´s hard even for a bull trying to explain the already sky high delinquency rate.... Nice to see that the Fed ( just a few weeks ago ) and other central banks are willing to take the securitized credit card debt as collateral. Lets hope the haircut will be big enough and the way too often toxic waste won´t be rolled over indefintely.......... This post ECB Concerned Over Swap-O-Rama Exit Strategy from Mish is showing that there are already schemes in place to "design" securities to limit the haircut & to make them available as collateral . One more reason to be bullish on gold.... Especially when you take a look at this graph Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Gottseidank ist die Kreditkrise und die nicht eingetroffenen Rezession bereits vorbei....... Dann aber sollten die bereits jetzt astronomischen Rückstandsraten bei den Kreditkarten selbst für die Daueroptimisten aber für noch mehr Beunruhigung sorgen. Immerhin ist es gut zu wissen das zur Not die Fed ( erst seit einigen Wochen ) und andere Zentralbanken auch die verbrieften Kreditkartenforderungen als Sicherheit akzeptieren. Bleibt nur zu hoffen das die angenommenen Risikoabschläge ausreichend sein werden und das diese oft fragwürdigen Papiere nicht auf alle Ewigkeit prolongiert werden ..... Wie dieses Posting ECB Concerned Over Swap-O-Rama Exit Strategy von Mish zeigt hat es nicht lange gedauert bis die Marktteilnehmer Strategien entwickelt haben um dieses System zu Ihren Gunsten zu nutzen. Wenn man das mit einem Blick auf die grafische Darstellung der FED Bilanz kombiniert hat man leicht einen gewichtigen Grund mehr langfristig eine bullishe Meinung zum Gold zu haben....UPDATE: Das paßt wie die Faust auf Auge.....Zentralbanken können auch bankrottgehen FAZ & Sind Verbraucherkredite der nächste Krisenherd? FT Deutschland
Credit-Card Firms May Look Alluring, But Threats Loom WSJ
The quickest way to pay top dollar for something you don't need is to make an impulse buy on your credit card. Investors eyeing shares in credit-card companies as a quick way to profit from an economic recovery should also resist the temptation to buy right now.

A growing feeling that stand-alone credit-card lenders will weather the economic slowdown has started to lift shares in firms like American Express Co., Discover Financial Services and Capital One Financial Corp.

But recent credit-card data indicate that none of the big card companies -- including the large card units at banks like Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. -- are in the clear. Rising defaults could weigh on earnings for longer than expected.

Since the credit crisis began, investors have expected rising charge-offs -- the term given for losses caused by defaults -- at credit-card companies. Two big negatives were identified: Job losses and, for many borrowers, a sharply reduced ability to use home-equity loans to pay off more expensive card balances.

Credit did deteriorate. Moody's Investors Service reports that, for the card lenders it tracks, the annualized charge-off rate -- which measures defaults as a percentage of loans outstanding -- rose to 6.05% in March from 4.64% a year earlier. The charge-off rate peaked at just over 7% during the 1991 and 2001 recessions, according to Moody's.

Credit-card bulls -- believing that a recession may be avoided -- think charge-offs won't go to recession highs. If so, firms like Capital One could look forward to sharply higher earnings as lower defaults would allow lenders to ease off on the expense of building their loan-loss reserves.

But two key data points indicate defaults climbing higher, not falling fast.

First, card borrowers are starting to pay back less of their outstanding balances each month. Analysts at Oppenheimer & Co. say that a sustained decline in the amount borrowers repay each month, compared with a year-earlier, can be a leading indicator that borrowers will start to fall behind on payments.

Oppenheimer calculates that, for the companies it covers, borrowers paid back 19% of their balance on average in April, down from 19.7% in the year-earlier period. American Express's borrowers paid down 23.8% of their balances in April, down from 25% a year ago, according to Oppenheimer. Conversely, Capital One borrowers paid down 18.5% of their balances last month, up from 17.6% a year earlier.

Also worrisome are data from Moody's suggesting that borrowers are finding it harder to become current on credit-card loans once they fall behind. The ratings firm notes that the amount of loans on which borrowers have skipped three or more payments has started to rise more quickly than loans that have missed one or two. Once borrowers are three payments behind, fewer of them ever catch up.

Federal Reserve data say revolving credit outstanding -- which tracks credit-card balances -- increased 6.7% in the first quarter, compared with the year-earlier period. Borrowers are taking on more debt to support spending through the slowdown.
It's a gamble for card companies to lend more to people who are turning to relatively expensive debt because they're cash strapped.

And it's a bad bet for investors to load up on the card companies taking that gamble.

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