The secret plot to derail the Greek bailout

Warning:  This is a very long post but a very important one to read...  

** To break up a potentially long read, we have injected photos of butterflies, both because they are lovely to look at and they symbolize 're-birth' which is the grande theme of this post.  We talk of Greece trying to prevent default... if it was a caterpillar, it would be like trying to prevent chrysalis.

So we begin..  

There are two ways a corporation or nation defaults..

1)  The corporation or nation openly declares bankruptcy

2)  The corporation or nation does everything humanly possible to avoid it but powerful forces behind the scenes ensures it happens to their benefit

Greece should have taken option #1, for revenge sake

Instead in spite of public pronouncements and agreements to the contrary, they are being forced into option #2, and to be honest, we are unsure if the Greek leadership, much less the people even know or understand this...

We at A&G have done much research and have written extensively on this topic, not because our focus is usually Greek concerns or possess any ethnic or emotional ties to the country.    We cover it because we see the default at minimum as the first 'Victory' in the war against banking and finance; the first Real and Genuine pain the financial elites will feel since September, 2008.   

And when it comes, it will be long overdue.

As we said previously, we've done much study and there are two questions we couldn't fully understand in this geopolitical chess game-  1) Why was an agreement made in Brussels on Sunday night when many of the involved parties truly want Greece to default and be gone from the euro?, and 2)  What role is the US playing, especially financially in this kabuki, especially since everyone knows the US bails out the world?

After reading an array of sources, we feel we finally have a much better understanding of the complex theater being enacted before our eyes and can piece together a timeline as to what has happened recently and what is going to occur over the next four weeks (Greece must pay its next installment of debts by March 20th- that is not a flexible date)

On Monday, January 16th, Presidential staff and Fed advisers convened with a dozen or more top Wall Street bankers. Its purpose was to brief a select group on the White House and Geithner approved operation to amputate the eurozone’s obviously gangrenous Greek leg.

Just 24 hours later, a remarkable undercover bailout slush fund was set up for the use of the ECB under Mario Draghi. On that day, the financial website Wealth Wire posted a piece suggesting the Fed was ‘up to something mysterious', and Jonathon Trugman of the New York Post’s financial desk wrote this: ‘Essentially, we just bailed out Europe’s banking system with the full faith and credit of the United States’.

Subsequently, a former Fed official told the Wall Street Journal that the Reserve was indeed bailing out Europe by operating in the shadows – aka a loan masquerading as a currency swap.

Former Vice President of the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas, Gerald O’Driscoll told the Journal:

“The Fed is using what is termed a “temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement” with the European Central Bank (ECB).  Simply put, the Fed trades or “swaps” dollars for euros. The Fed is compensated by payment of an interest rate (currently 50 basis points, or one-half of 1%) above the overnight index swap rate. The ECB, which guarantees to return the dollars at an exchange rate fixed at the time the original swap is made, then lends the dollars to European banks of its choosing.

The two central banks [ECB and US] are engaging in this roundabout procedure because each needs a fig leaf. The Fed was embarrassed by the revelations of its prior largess with foreign banks. It does not want the debt of foreign banks on its books. A currency swap with the ECB is not technically a loan.”

Well, swap or loan, it all went into the eurobank prop-up operation.  During the period following that transfer, the ECB lent $483bn in various amounts to just over 500 banks in the eurozone. 

So let's stop here and refresh what's happened so far-  US taxpayer $$ has been used once again to bailout Europe's banks and financial institutions.  If you ever wonder how the US has so much pull and sway in the UN and in economic, military and geopolitical affairs, perhaps this type of 'deal' answers it.

Let's continue..

That swap i.e. 'loan' deal was outlined to the key Wall St players on January 16th. In a nutshell, it was “We bale out the eurobanks for Mario, and in return they [the EU States] build a firewall around Greece”. It was the start of what became known as ‘amputate and cauterise’. Goldman Sachs played a pivotal role in the session.

The US view is this: Greece must default outside the euro, and become a leper.  Secretary Geithner thinks the Europeans don’t have the money to make the banks ultra-safe…and that means an immediate contagion blowback to the US, with disastrous consequences. (It also means Obama's re-election chances are severely hindered if the US experiences anything close to another 'Lehman') 

So we, the US, must covertly help the ECB render the eurobanks safe – and in return, they need to step up to the plate by leveraging whatever firepower they need to ensure the whole mess stops at Greece.

Simple.

The key players at this meeting were Timothy Geithner, Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein, a tight group of White House Obamites, Ben Bernanke (at “a safe distance”), Mario Draghi, and IMF boss Christine Lagarde.  The President as well as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton were fully aware of the meeting but neither attended.

As a consequence, from this point onwards Christine Lagarde began to play serious hardball about the need for a massive firewall investment by EU member States. Concurrently, Secretary Clinton applied every ounce of available pressure to the Sino-Japanese credit line as a potential further source of bricks in the wall.

Clinton’s State Department seems to have had some degree of success. Less so Lagarde: she has come up hard against Berlin’s refusal to expose Germany further.

The view in the Fed and Washington is that the Europeans are welching on the deal which is peculiar since really they never had Berlin on board in the first place.  Germany does not want to expose themselves to even greater debt, and recently their legislative body enacted legislation prohibiting it.  At the recent G-20 meeting, Lagarde has threatened to pull funding for the Greek bailout unless the IMF gets their way and a 750bil euro firewall is created.

So that's were things stand today, February 24th.  Everyone wants a Greek default except for the 'chess piece' in the game that should have wanted it all along, and thus now is reduced its significance to that of scapegoat 'pawn' -- Greece.

And in case you think we didn't provide enough evidence to explain why Greece will be defaulting soon (even if it doesn't want to), here's a few more reasons:

* The credit rating agency S&P today joined Fitch and Credit Suisse in seeing the Greek Bailout as akin to 'default'.  From appearances, it seems all will call default one second after the bond swap officially takes place. Whether that triggers CDS (credit default swaps) remains to be seen...

* The Greek consitutional change demanded by the Troika (to hierachise debt before other expenditure) will not be possible by the Greek bailout closure date. And they knew that all along.

* European creditor countries are demanding 38 specific changes in Greek tax, spending and wage policies by the end of this month and have laid out extra reforms that amount to micromanaging the country’s government for two years, according to the Financial Times. There is no way the Greeks will stand for that either.  The program is being set up to fail, as many of these conditions will be impossible to achieve

* In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mario Draghi’s support for the deal remains understated bordering on tepid: he suggested that the sceptical market response to Tuesday’s rescue deal suggested many doubted Athens would follow through on a promised austerity cure. “It’s hard to say if the crisis is over,” he warned.

* Commerzbank AG Chief Executive Martin Blessing yesterday said of the Brussels deal, “The participation in the haircut is as voluntary as a confession during the Spanish Inquisition”.

In summary:  If Greece does not default by March 20th, it will be an outright shock to A&G since so many major players in the secret contagion 'game' are working very hard behind the scenes to make sure it does happens.  The goal is to cut off the financial bleeding at Greece before spreading to bigger and more important nations that require too much funding to bail, and because many believe they will be insulated by any financial blowback, thus the potential for a financial tsunami turning into a ripple.   

We believe they are wrong on both accounts.

Grecian Spring

Well the market is down today... -135pts as of 2:15p est..

Would be nice to see a four-digit decline; a '1' or '2' in front of that '135' but still, considering the Dow has been going up for all of 2012 without any rationale or reason beyond empty optimism and the Hunger to profit, we'll celebrate any triple digit down days.

Yesterday we demonstrated once again how deeply uninformed Americans are to the realities going on in Greece.  But as much as blame could be placed on the average person for not caring about anything or anyone outside of the immediate sphere of 'self',  it is also the fault of American media for intentionally doing a piss-poor job to accurately reporting on how troublesome the economic rots of the Eurozone are.

I guess media is incapable of serving corporate master and Truth equally.

Ultimately the economic and political demise of Greece will affect us all, so people better start paying attention to it as if it was local news or your favorite sports team, and not some profit-making nuisance or distant problem far, far away somewhere in the Mediterranean.

Here's some of the latest news and pieces of interest from Greece from today:

--  Greek Bailout "unagreed" 24 hrs after it was agreed upon.  The leader of the rightwing Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS), Georgios Karatzaferis woke up to reality that the cuts would destroy what's left of Greece and pulled back support.  The Euro's value vs the Dollar plunges...  Their political party does not have enough votes in Parliament to derail the 25% reduction in minimum wage, 15,000 job cuts and other austerity sacrifices outright but let's just say their point of view is becoming more and more prevailing, especially as there's April elections to consider.

--  Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has pledged to do "everything necessary" to rescue the €130bn bail-out package for Greece, and said that any senior members of Government who opposed him would be ousted.   Since at least 3 members of the coalition have resigned in protest, maybe ousters aren't necessary.

Isn't democracy just Wonderful?   Anyone who disagrees with your leadership or policy decisions, you simply 'oust'.  Of course Pamademos is a technocrat and wasn't elected by the people (he's simply a banker working for the EU and financial interests to ensure they get their money by all means necessary)

Papademos also said if Greece defaulted, there'd be 'uncontrolled chaos'.  Seems he forgot to finish the sentence... 'for the financial sector'.  And if there is chaos in Greece and the rest of the world, it will be due in large measure because the powers that be refused to make contingencies.  To the stubborn bastards who control global finance there never is nor was an Option B, so any chaos will be intentionally created to scare future debtors from defaulting.

-- Though more symbolic than reality, The Federation of Greek Police have threatened to arrest EU/IMF officials, accusing them, in a formal letter, of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty". They also wrote, ""Since you are continuing this destructive policy, we warn you that you cannot make us fight against our brothers. We refuse to stand against our parents, our brothers, our children or any citizen who protests and demands a change of policy."

There will come a point when the police stop fighting the protesters and join the struggle- then all bets are off, even across the Atlantic.  Hope you have some cash in a sock or something because your local bank will be on government-imposed 'holiday' for a few days to prevent a panic run.

The Greek situation also reminds me of the situation in Wisconsin last February involving that coward Governor Walker, who is in the pocket of the Tea Party controlled Koch Brothers.  He wanted to destroy the unions by making it illegal to collective bargain, so he targeted teachers, firefighters, everyday workers, etc..  The one union that was exempt from the law-- the police union.  That's what all third-world and third-rate leaders do- essentially bribe the police because without them, the leaders are powerless and emasculate.

Well now you're caught up to speed...

If you read this blog, we know you are informed and care.  But your friends... your family... your neighbors are still in a complete state of utter ignorance when it comes to the economic storm clouds coming from Greece and the rest of the Euro.   I could express a thousands analogies but I will only do one:

Due to globalization and banking interdependence, all the nations of the world are economically intertwined, like lights on a string.  When one bulb blows, it will affect all others, no matter how seemingly far away it appears on the string.

Random Musings- Greece, America & apathy

~ A pie chart breakdown of where Greece's bailout money goes.  Only 19 cents on the dollar, or rather euro actually go back to the Grecian economy i.e. its populace.

No one respects deadlines anymore...

Frustrating... just frustrating..

The big news out of Greece over the weekend was that its leaders had just 24 hours to work out a deal with its EU, ECB & IMF creditors that would complete the selling of their nation and souls to their creditors.

Only 24 hours for Greece's leaders to agree to "the minimum wage be cut to less than 600 euros ($790) a month ($4.94/hr) and that at least one holiday allowance, the so-called 13th and 14th wages, be abolished, and pensions paid by supplementary funds should be cut by 35 percent" (AP)

Just 24 hours to agree to this harsh austerity or Default.

And what happens??   Talks extended into Monday...

Not sure what there really is to talk about.  The choices are really like an evil person saying "We will cut your left and right arm off as well as your right foot, or we will kill you outright"   How much deliberation does one need on a choice like that?  When does the pride instinct kick in?

We've learned and observed many lessons over the past 39 months.  Among them is that few to no world leader truly cares about its people, especially in a crisis, and when the choice is between reality and can-kicking, everyone including the common people want it kicked.  Happily so.

Also learned that few people in the US have really been affected so far by this recession.  Most of the people hurt and harmed were those in such bad shape from policies of the last 30 years that even in economic boom, they'd be going bankrupt, foreclosed upon and all that.  Very few others have.

You walk in most malls.. still see it bustling.. still see plenty of vapid, anti-social, technology addicted teenage morons with their headphone buds in ears and texting away without a care in the world.. Still see plenty of consumers consuming with credit cards swiping and registers cha-chinging all the live long day.. Still see people emotionally oblivious to everything outside their immediate family and more immediate needs.

The biggest lesson learned with few exceptions is that in this whole global economy narrative of crumbling banks, bailouts, recession and supposed "recovery", from politicians to investors to everyday people, there really is no one to cheer or root for.  And so few heroes.

Politicians are corrupt, bankers/financiers are evil, Investors are vermin and most everyday people won't fight back in any meaningful way.  Could be apathy or a fear that god-forbid, all their 'stuff' will be taken from them.  And the youth- they have the most cause to fight since every 18yr old college student without a silver spoon or teat to suckle upon, becomes a debt slave via student loans before legally allowed to take their first drink.  And that debt never, ever, Ever go away... Even in a bankruptcy.

In other parts of the world, youth fight back, or at least try to.

Angry Youths Attack House Of Greek President Papoulias; Hurl Rocks, Molotov Cocktails (AP) -- "About 30- 50 Greek youths arrived by motorbike and on foot just after 8 p.m, hurled a Molotov cocktail, rocks and paint at the house but stopped short of attacking the two guards at the President’s house"

In America, they sit outside in parks for days and weeks on end sipping coffee from thermoses while listening to their ipods and texting nothing important while mainstream America ignores them.

Either we've become That lazy and detached a nation, or those suffering the most still believe so much in the whole Left-Right political canard that no one wants to embarrass or hurt Obama's chances at re-election with a sincere dust-up.   I can't imagine such restraint if McCain/Palin were running the nation with exact same economic policies or even say a Bush third-term.

So, deadline extended in Greece one more day.  We still assume all will be worked out to the powerful banking interests' will...  or who knows, be extended another day.

Greece is the nation that invented democracy.   Would be nice if they be less like Athens and more like Sparta.

When know-it-alls know nothing

~ "I'm tellin' ya.. you gotta' be in the market!  Buy lotta stocks.. ya Gotta!"

Don't know which I hate more- the stock market, those who invest in it or those who report on it.  Tough call- all equally dreadful and in the case of investors and media, both worthy of a face scratching.  The reasons we've stated too often to take time to repeat here.  Suffice it to say, if you're not part of the 1%, you should be wanting to sharpen your claws as well...

But as much as I despise these entities, they also make me laugh at times.  I tend to find it humorous when cocky cock know-it-alls think they have all the answers and can accurately predict economic events based on assumption that all will work out when push comes to shove, then are proven wrong.

Here's a headline from this morning:


Emerging Stocks Set for Biggest Monthly Gain in Three on Greece Optimism (Bloomberg) -- "Emerging-market stocks rose, with the benchmark index set for its largest monthly gain since October, after Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said major progress has been made in debt-swap talks... he’s “strongly committed” to reaching a debt-swap accord with bondholders that is crucial to lowering Greece’s debt burden and freeing up another round of aid before the country faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($19 billion) bond payment on March 20."

And the market rejoiced and figuratively held hands as they danced around in the garden of eternal optimism and never-ending profit making...  La La La...

But then later in afternoon...

Greek officials attack EU and IMF as debt talks stall (Guardian.UK) -- "Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country's mounting debts appeared to stall... a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds...


"On the negotiations over the bailout funds, Greek MPs have objected to demands by the troika for further wage cuts and reductions in the minimum wage.  The troika (European Union, International Monetary Fund & European Commonwealth Bank) doesn't appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses," said the government aide. "No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we're very worried.""

A&G does not pretend to hide the fact we want this to fail and overall, desire Greece to do what it should have done two years ago... Default.

 "Meowww... hate investors & banks sooo much.. Meeeowww!! Rrrr Rrrrr"

Investors and banks have not had to take any real financial hit or punishment since the global economic crisis began with Lehman Bros in Oct, 2008. That is now 39 months.  Its about time they did..  Its about time the ultra-wealthy around the world who do nothing but create misery in populaces then financially profit from it, hemorrhage Severe losses and feel real pain.

Unfortunately the way this game has been played for over 3 years, there's always some magic trick or scheme or compromise pulled from thin air (or someone's ass) to keep all the plates spinning so no one at the top financial echelon ever feels any economic pain.   So we're realistic to the probability that all will work itself out for the bankers and the Investors will continue to rejoice and 'dance'.

But Lord knows, we are not hoping for it.

And if Greece sells all of its soul to the banks, well there's always a ray of hope that the Portuguese wont.. or the Irish... or the Italians.. or the Spanish..

Basic 101: Derivatives and Credit-Default Swaps

I wanted to use this posting to explain the terms 'derivatives' and 'credit default swaps' (CDS) in the most easy to understand manner possible and connect them to what's going on in Greece so people can really understand what the terms mean and what's going on currently in the news.  But rather than write like a dry economics textbook  and put the reader to sleep, I will do my best to explain using real-world everyday examples.

Let's start with derivatives.  The best way to explain what they are is to take you with me on a magic trip to a casino, specifically the roulette table.  If you're not familiar with roulette and how you bet, etc, hopefully you can still follow along and understand.

The picture above shows what the roulette table looks like.  You can bet on anything- whether the ball on the roulette wheel will land on a specific number, odd or even, black or red and so forth..

Let us say for this example you take $50 in chips and place on the 'Even' box.  This means if the ball lands on an even number between 2-36, you win, if its Odd, you lose.. BUT..your odds are not 50-50.  There are two other numbers on the wheel, 0 and 00 and if the ball lands on either, you will lose your $50

So what do you do to prevent the possibility of the ball landing on 0 or 00 and losing your $50?  You 'hedge' your bet so as to minimize your potential losses.  If you were to place a $10 chip on the 0 and 00 boxes separately, you've just created two derivatives i.e. insurance bets.

Now you're still open to risk because the roulette wheel's spin can land on an Odd number and you lose everything, but the risk has been minimized.  Now usually those entities that engage in derivatives make sure they're protected as much as possible.

So using this example, say you placed a $10 chip on 'Odd' as well, then you have all scenarios covered- 'Even', 'Odd' and 0 & 00.  Your chance at a big payday is greatly minimized but if you were in roulette for the long term, and not just 3-4 spins, then its a safe way to bet and gradually make money.  

Banks and financial  entities are not in the investing game for the short term. They are constantly investing and as long as nothing puts them at risk of a Lehman Bros-type collapse, they will continue wheeling & dealing, and using derivatives as stopgaps against big losses.

Now that you understand what basically derivatives are, let's focus our attention on credit default swaps (CDS).

In this example, we have 4 people- Amy, Beth, Cindy and Dara.

Amy needs money badly so she borrows $500 from Beth at high interest.  Beth lent it to Amy because the profit potential at high interest was too great to pass up, but she really doesn't have a lot of faith she'll get her $$ back.  So Beth contacts Cindy.

Cindy says to Beth for a $25 fee she will insure the loan so that if Amy defaults, she will pay whatever portion of the $500 + interest wasn't repaid if Amy stops paying Beth.  So for the nominal fee, Beth feels secure she'll get all her money back no matter what and at this point it doesn't matter Who the money comes from.  Cindy is acting as an insurance agent.

Now Dara believes Amy will never repay so she wants to get in on the action.  She is a speculator.  Dara also pays Cindy $25 because if Amy defaults, Cindy will be now responsible to two people, Beth and Dara, to cover the portion of the original $500 loan + interest which Amy stops paying.

So here's where it gets tricky...

If Amy pays on time and Beth gets her money back, then Cindy profited $50 while Dara lost her $$ on a speculation bet.  BUT- if Amy stops paying after let's say $100, then Cindy is on the hook for $400 + interest to Beth and Dara EACH!

Oh yes- I forgot, Cindy only has $300 in her life savings so there's absolutely No way she will be able to make good on the insurance to both Beth and Dara.  She only offered the CDS as a means to get quick money and never imagined she'd have to cover the loan!

So Cindy is now forced to 'loan' Amy the $$ she needs to pay Beth even if Amy never repays her back, so as to not trigger the CDS making Cindy on the hook to repay both Beth And Dara, the speculator, which Cindy is in no position to do.
_____________

Now let's tie this all into what's currently going on in Greece.

Investors purchased Greek bonds or 'debt' at high interest rates because Greece's credit rating was so poor.  Because they felt a bit insecure as to what happens if Greece stops paying i.e. default, investors made hedge bets in the form of CDS to banks and financial institutions in Europe who received money at this point for doing nothing but giving assurances to insure the Greek debt so investors would not take a loss or 'haircut'

If Greece pays their debts, the banks keep the money with no losses.

If/when Greece defaults, it means the CDS trigger in... this means they have to pay back the difference of the billions in euros the Greeks defaulted on, not only to the investors, but also speculators who do not directly hold Greek debt but still got in on the action to bet on Greece's default.

Now the European financial institutions thought to themselves, "Maybe we've over-extended ourselves with all these CDS".  So they made insurance bets or sold derivatives to US banks and financials so that if Greece did default, it would somewhat minimize their losses because these US banks would have to pick up the difference.

This exposed US banks and financial institutions to risk from Greek default while keeping 100% of the money if Greece pays their debts.

So basically what's happened is this-  Greece is pretty much insolvent.  It needs more loans to keep making its payments to the investors who hold its debt.  The money is lent by the IMF and ECB not because they expect Greece to pay them back.  Its because its more financially beneficial to give Greece 100 billion euro, let's say, then to have to pay out trillions of euro in CDS to all the investors and speculators upon a default.

I hope this helps people understand what's going on with Greece, the Eurozone, the US and why everyone is so scared of Greece defaulting even though realistically the nation has no chance to survive on its own, and this everyone is in a great quandry.

Video: Ireland & Austerity

There are many financial problems plaguing the European continent and most if not all those maladies are caused by European and International banks who overreached up until 2008, took massive economic hits when the global economy crashed, then held various nations hostage until their governments agreed to surrender national economic autonomy and allow those financial institutions to pretty much rape and pillage the European populaces through austerity.  

While one could study Greece to get a taste of what happens when banks devastate a nation, I feel a more comprehensive understanding of this Investor-driven plague can be found by studying Ireland, a nation that is similar to Greece in that both nations' economies are Heavily dependent on imports and both have taken IMF loans within the last year.  But whereas Greece holds strikes and protests almost daily, the Irish people are still in a form of shell-shock as to what's hit the nation. 

Below is a very informative video in 2 parts from Max Keiser who when it comes to finance, markets and understanding the global ponzi scheme currently going on, is someone whose opinions I respect. He explains how Ireland's economy was decimated back in 2008, the 'deal with the devil' their government agreed to with the IMF by accepting their loans, and what's ahead for Ireland and her people.

Please watch & understand this is not isolated to the Emerald Isle..  Enjoy~

Ireland- part 1 (10min approx)

Ireland part 2 (10min approx.)

Interesting Irish National Debt Stats......

Stunning....If you want to put a positive spin on it one can argue that there is a lot of room for improvement for the Irish to boost their share.... Of course only if the ECB is willing to slow down their ongoing buying "frenzy" ;-) For more charts click here

Positiv formuliert bleibt da für die Irischen Mitbürger, Banken und Versicherungen noch viel Luft nach oben.....Natürlich nur für den Fall das sich die EZB in den nächsten Jahren mit Ihren Käufen zurückhält....;-) Für mehr Charts in Sachen Irland und Staatsverschuldung bitte hier klicken....

Irish government debt needs you Barclays Capital’s Laurent Fransolet via FT Alphaville

In common with a number of other countries, one of the problems Ireland has faced is the limited domestic investor base for its debt. There is only limited data on who owns the Irish debt. On the domestic side, the Irish central bank has detailed data on holders… Only 15% of the debt is held domestically (the lowest proportion in the euro area), and domestic buyers have not stepped up their purchases recently, in contrast to a number of other euro area countries (eg, Spain, Portugal).

…Irish domestic banks own just €8.5bn of the debt, compared with balance sheets of about €700bn

Similarly, insurance companies and pension funds hold just €3-4bn of Irish government bonds, compared with total fixed income assets of €66bn. These low domestic holdings probably reflect the fact that for a long time, Irish debt was scarce and low yielding, and thus shunned by domestic investors. We think it also shows that in a way, there is potential for more domestic buying, even if these changes in investment policies can take time.

To have an idea of who owns this external debt, we utilise a number of sources. First, we take into account the ECB Securities Markets Programme buying (SMP): in total, about €61bn of Greek, Irish and Portuguese securities have been bought by the ECB. We believe the majority was Greek debt, with the rest slightly skewed in favour of Irish debt (say 15bn to 20bn).

Overall, we assume 30% of the ECB SMP buying has been in Irish debt (€18bn – the SMP likely makes the ECB the biggest single debt holder of Ireland, Portugal and Greece).

Read the last paragraph twice & ( even if i have to repeat myself over and over again ) the Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" is getting even more "funny".... ;-)

Lasst den letzten Absatz in aller Ruhe nocheinmal Revue passieren und (ich wiederhole mich da gerne) der Witz des Tages von Smaghi das der "€ stabiler als die DM ist" nur noch witziger... ;-)

Importantly… Ireland built up a lot of cash deposits in 2008, which it could run down more than €10bn if market access remains limited/too expensive. With monthly cash deficits of about €1.5bn, limited bills redemptions (€2.75bn in Q1 11) and no bond redemption until November 2011 (€4.4bn), Ireland is not under severe pressure to issue large amounts for meeting cash needs. As such, the NTMA confirmed on 9 September that Ireland was fully funded until next June, which is our assessment as well, if Ireland decided to run down its cash balances entirely (although we suspect it will want to keep some cash buffer to hand).

Put the € 18 billion ECB number since March 2010 into perspective with the monthly cash deficit of only € 1.5 billion.... All this in the name of "tightening the unrealistic high spreads vs BUNDS"...... Spin at its best....UPDATE: Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros

Die ganze Sache wird dadurch nicht weniger witzig wenn man die geschätzten 18 Mrd € die die EZB seit März 2010 aufgekauft hat ins Verhätltnis zu dem monatlichen Cash Defizit von 1,5 Mrd € setzt..... Und all das läuft noch immer unter dem Motto "die unrealistischen hohen Renditeaufschläge vs den BUNDS mit dem Marktbild der EU / Politiker / EZB in Einklang zu bringen "..... Mir würden da haufenweise treffendere Begriffe einfallen.... UPDATE: Irish banks' ECB loans rise to 95.1 bln euros

Got GOLD ? ;-)

Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark"

Quotes like this totally "neglecting" the almost € 1 trillion fund to "rescue" the €, IMF involvement, first "QE aka Montizing Of Debt" ever & including the once in a lifetime "elevated" ( at least by Bundesbank standarts... ) CPI close to 4% after the reunification are not suitable to regain at least a few percentage points of the already "diminished" credibility... At least in Germany... ;-)

Wenn man Zitate wie diese lesen muß, die zum einen den fast 1 Billion € schweren Rettungsfonds, der zur Stabilisierung des € notwending gewesen ist, und den Sündefall schlechthin ( Aufkauf von Staatsanleihen ) "ausblenden" sowie gleichzeitig die im Zuge der Wiedervereinigung entstandene Sondersituation von extrem erhöhten CPI Daten von knapp 4% komplett unberücksichtigt läßt, muß sich nicht wundern wenn auch noch der kümmerliche Rest in Sachen Glaubwürdigkeit langsam aber sicher "flöten" geht..Zumindest in Deutschland....;-)

Bloomberg

The euro has proven to be a more stable currency than the Deutsche Mark in the 11 years since its introduction, the board member said in the FAZ commentary.

The average inflation rate in those 11 years is lower than in all countries in the monetary union in the 10 years before, even in Germany, Bini Smaghi said, according to the newspaper.

Sometimes it´s better to stay silent.....

"Reden ist Silber, Schweigen ist GOLD".......

Foreigners Holding 75 % of Greece’s Current Debt Stock

One of the main reasons why the "Smoke & Mirrors" ( excellent link via Yves Smith / NC ) Greece "Rescue" & a hidden bailout ( see the ECB U-TURN My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) has been orchestrated..... It´s still the number one goal to bail out banks & insurers ( see PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks ).....Nobody is too small too fail....Sarcastically one can argue that in hindsight it seems the Lehman "incident" was one of the best things that could have happened to the industry......

Denke das wir hier einen der Hauptgründe für den "Smoke & Mirrors" ( fantastische Zusammenfassung via Naked Capitalism ) Rettungsversuch bzw die indirekten ( siehe die 180 Grad Drehung der EZB My Big Fat Greek Collateral Conversion ) Bailoutbemühungen sehen.... Es geht wie leider immer noch darum Banken und Versicherungen vor möglichen Schäden zu "beschützen" ( siehe PIIGS Claims On European Banks: $1.5 Trillion; France Most On Hook In PIIGS Implosion & Ireland Stunned To Uncover "Truly Shocking" Information By Its Banks )...... Keiner ist unwichtig genug um zu fallen...."Spitz" formuliert könnte man fast meinen das im Nachhinein Lehman für die Branche der bestmöglich anzunehmende Unfall gewesen ist......

The kindness of (bond market) strangers FT Alphaville

With foreigners already holding three quarters of Greece’s current debt stock, convincing them to buy even more becomes increasingly difficult. Here’s what Deutsche’s Gillian Edgeworth says:

"Euroland insists that the Greek sovereign continues to access the market if possible. The sovereign issuer will hope that foreigners remain keen buyers of bonds, though foreigners already hold 75% of the total debt stock.

In the absence of further foreign buying, local institutions will only likely be able to absorb government issuance if domestic banks continue to draw off [European Central Bank] liquidity facilities in size."

Lucky, then, that the ECB decided to revise its acceptance rules for the collateral pledged by Greek banks on Friday

Too bad for the "architects" that so far the spreads havn´t narrowed in a meaningful way.....;-)

Leicht problematisch für die Bailoutakrobaten lediglich das sich zumindest momentan die Spreads nicht wesentlich "eingeengt" haben...... ;-)

Greek debt – spreading like it’s 1999 FT Alphaville

It looks like Hellenic Republic bond spreads over German bunds are back at 1999 levels — when Greece first attempted to join the eurozone but failed because it didn’t meet the required economic criteria

No wonder Gold has been hitting a series of new ATH in € terms ...

Da verwundert es wenig das Gold seit Wochen eine Serie von neues Allzeithoch auf € Basis markiert.....

BBVA Credit Quality Reality Check.....Spain & Portugal NPA Almost Double To 5.1 Percent

Grim is no overstatement......... Keep in mind that BBVA is probably one of the stronger players ( asset management, south america exposure ) when it comes to the Spanish banking system.....No wonder the "complacency" hit a high just two weeks ago...;-)

Übel ist sicher keine Übertreibung.... Verweise vorsorglich mal darauf hin das BBVA ( Asset Management & Südamerika Diversifikation ) als einer der stärkeren Spieler im spanischen Bankenmarkt gilt....Kein Wunder das weltweit die "Sorglosigkeit" noch vor 2 Wochen neue Hochs erreciht hat.... ;-)

BBVA Q4 Report / PDF

Doubtful risks stood at €15,602m, showing a 24.8% increase over the level reported at 30-Sep-2009.

The NPA ratio rose to 4.3%. This was higher than the third-quarter figure due to the aforementioned increase in doubtful assets. In Spain & Portugal the ratio was 5.1%

cleaner / schärfere Version

The Group’s coverage ratio of 57% at 31-Dec-2009 is considered adequate because if the value of the collateral associated to these risks is included (€16,842m), coverage would increase to 165%......

>Let´s hope their collateral comment has priced in the coming implosion of the Spanish housing market ( so far the market has only fallen slightly UPDATE: This BRILLIANT INTERACTIVE CHART gives an excellent hint that we have almost seen nothing yet )..... Otherwise the coverage ratio would be not quite "prudent"......Keep the following stat in mind....

> Bleibt zu hoffen das hier die jahrelange "Implosion" speziell des spanischen Immobilienmarktes eingepreist ist ( bisher ist der Verfall "moderat" gewesen UPDATE: Dieser brilliante INTERAkTIVE CHART zeigt eindrucksvoll das in Spanien in Sachen Korrektur noch "Nachholbedarf" hat ) ...... Ansonsten wären die vorgenommenen Rückstellungen vorsichtig ausgedrückt nicht gerade "weitsichtig".... Dazu sollte man sich nachfolgende Zahl ins Gedächnis rufen.....

Spain Bubble Watch

For a decade, the Spanish housing sector enjoyed uninterrupted growth, as low interest rates encouraged borrowing. Average house prices have nearly quadrupled during the past 10 years. About 750,000 homes were built in Spain in 2006 -- more than in France, Germany and the U.K. combined.

> Combine the number with unemployment rate hitting almost 20 percent and the picture isn´getting better.....

> Wenn man diese Zahl mit einer Arbeitslosenquote nahe 20% kombiniert dürfte klar sein was sich hier die nächsten Jahre abspielen wird......

UPDATE FT Alphaville

....meanwhile, it seems the group was forced to increase provisions after following through on actual foreclosures and acquisitions. In other words, it wasn’t until the bank acquired the assets that it realised the collateral had been misvalued on its books by €200m. The heart of the problem being the misvaluation of the collateral backing the loans.

>With this kind of accounting it is no wonder BBVA has manage to post a profit......But in comparison to Wells Fargo BBVA isn´t loocking so bad......Banks & balance sheet qualities....... Here we go again.... Nice to see that they are still talking about their "strong" capital ratios & the "nice" dividend ( 30% payout ratio )......

>Bei solch "konservativer" Bilanzierung ist es kein Wunder das BBVA es geschafft hat einen Gewinn auszuweisen....Wells Fargo mußte ganz andere "Verrenkungen" unternehmen ... Nur gut das wir in Sachen Bankenbilanzqualität so große Fortschritte gemacht haben..... Beruhigend zu hören das noch immer von der starken Kapitalausstattung und netten Dividende ( 30& Gewinnausschüttung ) geschwärmt wird....

In Spain & Portugal it ( coverage ratio ) was 48%.

>With over 90 percent of mortgages tied to variable rates they can only pray that the ECB will stay on hold for another decade....

>Da in Spanien über 90% der Hypotheken variabel verzinst sind dürfte dort Stoßgebete in Richtung EZB gehen das die Zinsen noch jahrelang auf dem Tief verharren werden....

>Does anybody remember this "fine tuning" news from Jan. 2009.......

>Erinnert sich noch irgendjemand an die "Fine Tuning" Operation der Banco de Espana vom Januar 2009....

How Not To Restore Confidence....."United Arab Emirates & Spain Edition"

Spanish website Cotizalia reports that Spain’s banks and cajas are negotiating on a one-to-one basis with the Bank of Spain to “fine-tune” their 2008 accounts in order to avoid taking catastrophic write-downs on lans.

According to the article, the central bank has agreed to allow the banks to increase the “calendar of amortisation” of these troubled assets, which are said to be mostly loans to property developers.

>Add the following trade ( couldn´t resist.... ) from the Spanish central bank to the mix and i´ll bet that hand in hand with the banking implosion the so far praised Banco de Espana will face some serious headwinds......

>Bei Begutachtung der o.g. Daten und des nachfolgenden Trades ( konnte nicht widerstehen...) wird eher früher als später vom Glanz der bisher so gelobten spanischen Zentralbank nicht viel übrig bleiben.....

Banco de España has already been delving into the covered bond market with money from gold-sale proceeds FT Alphaville May 2009

Barclays Capital on Wednesday morning cites Spain’s Expansion newspaper on a report that Banco de España has already been delving into the covered bond market with money from gold-sale proceeds .

We note that the latest available data, as reported to the IMF for March, show that Spanish gold holdings at end-March were 9.054mn oz, unchanged since end-July 2007. That said, it should also be noted that Spain slashed its gold holdings during 2005-2008: from 16.826mn oz at end-2004 to 9.054mn in July 2007.

PS: Iberia’s weighting is almost 20% of European GDP & Greece only 3%....

PS: Spanien & Portugal stehen mal eben schlappe 20% des European GDP.... Griechenland für 3%.....

ECB: Record 442 billion Euros “Stimulus by Stealth”

HT to Alea for the excellent headline. After reading the latest ECB "Instability" Report....... & the almost irresistable conditions ( despite news like this ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities & Adjustment of risk control measures for newly issued asset-backed securities and for uncovered bank bonds ) it is no surprise to see such a huge number. .......A no brainer...... I can imagine Trichet is already praying that this will work.....I have some serious doubts......Liquidity is & was not the issue..... Core problems ( impaired bank balance sheets, not enough creditworthy borrowers ) are still unsolved and are getting worse on a daily basis..... Update : Spanish banks to get €90 billion bailout

Dank an Alea für die sehr treffende Überschrift. Nachdem ich den letzten ECB "Instability" Report....... gelesen habe und wenn man die unwiderstehlichen Konditionen ( trotz leicht verschärfter Bedingungen / siehe ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities & Adjustment of risk control measures for newly issued asset-backed securities and for uncovered bank bonds ) berücksichtigt dürfte die Höhe nicht wirklich überraschen. Eine echte Lizenz zum Gelddrucken.....Kann mir bildlich vorstellen wie Trichet & Co beten, das dieser Kraftakt endlich dazu führt, das die Kreditmärkte wieder wie gewünscht funktionieren ( Update Banken tragen Milliarden zurück zur EZB ).... Ich denke das auch dieser Versuch maximal etwas Linderung in Form von geringeren Spreads verschaffen wird..... Dummerweise ist mangelnde Liquidität nicht das Problem. Solange die Problematik der bilanztechnisch insolventen Banken nicht gelöst wird und man anerkennt das es im Angesicht einer lang anhaltenden Rezession einfach zu wenig kreditwürdige Unternehmen gibt, dürfte sich die Lage weiter verschlechtern. Wenn man so will handeln die Banken aus Ihrer Sicht ironischerweise momentan das erste Mal nach Jahren der "Trunkenheit" richtig. Tragisch aus deutscher Sicht ist vor allem das unser Bankensystem trotz fehlender eigener Blase dank der desaströsen Exzesse besonders der Landesbanken ( folgerichtig kommen die Sparkassen als Anteilseigner dank massivster Wertberichtigungen auf Ihre LB Anteile in ernste Schieflagen, was das besonders für den Mittelstand bedeutet kann man leicht erahnen..... ) eher einen bzw. den Spitzenplatz der Problemliste belegt..... Updadte: EZB pumpt Rekordbetrag in den Markt FTD & Spanish banks to get €90 billion bailout


ECB pumps €442bn into banking system FT
The European Central Bank on Wednesday pumped hundreds of billions of euros in one-year loans into the eurozone’s weakened banking system, making record amounts of emergency finance available in a bid to unlock credit markets and revive the region’s economies.

In a dramatic step dubbed “stimulus by stealth” in financial markets, the ECB lent €442.2bn for 12 months to more than 1,100 banks at its current benchmark interest rate of 1 per cent.

The high demand for the funds, in what was the ECB’s first ever auction for one-year loans, reflected a growing realisation by the banks that emergency funding may not be available again on such favour-able terms.

The central bank’s action could boost the eurozone’s recovery prospects by lowering market interest rates and creating more scope for banks to lend to the private sector.

The ECB action, which attracted 1,121 bidders – more than usual in ECB operations – had an immediate impact in driving down overnight and longer-term market interest rates, though the full effects are still to feed through.

Don Smith, economist at inter-dealer broker Icap, said: “The massive scale and undoubted success of this tender almost entirely reflects the cheapness of the funds on offer.”

The previous largest amount injected in a single ECB operation was €348.6bn in December 2007.

The economic impact will depend on whether demand for liquidity in future ECB market operations is reduced as a result of Wednesday’s action, as well as whether banks step up lending.

“They must pass it along,” Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, an ECB executive board member, said in Rome.

> "...must pass it along" This kind of rhetoric will only be working in China ( see Number Of The Day "Credit Explosion In China" & todays must see Borrowed in China from FT Alphaville ). Probably ( after FT Alphavilles update DEFINITELY ) the NPL from the not so distant future...... Smaghi probably one of the ECB members pressing for "quantitive easing" ( despite intense discussions among the ECB members so far almost non existent ).......

> "...must pass it along" Wird wohl ein Wunschgedanke bleiben..... In China sieht das momentan ganz anders aus ( siehe Number Of The Day "Credit Explosion In China" sowie die aktuellen Daten für Juni Borrowed in China WAHNSINN!). Da wird solchen Wünschen wenn Sie von der richtigen Stelle geäußert werden "bedingungslos" Folge geleistet. Die Chancen das es sich um die faulen Kredite von morgen handelt sind nicht zu unterschätzen ( nach dem Update von FT Alphaville eine "leichte" Untertreibung )...... Unschwer zu erkennen das Smaghi eher dem Camp innerhalb der EZB angehört die PRO "Quantitive Easing" ( bisher trotz intensiver Diskussionen praktisch kaum vorhanden ) sind......

WSJ

By promising a full allocation of all bids on Wednesday, the ECB has effectively passed responsibility for any easing of policy to the banks themselves, giving license to any institution that thinks it can lend the money profitably into the real economy.

AJ via Alea

“If I were a bank I would be gathering up all the furniture to use as collateral to take part.” said Erik Nielsen, European economist at Goldman Sachs.

AMEN!

ECB "Instability" Report.......

Not much stability to be found in the ECB Financial Stability Review ( Warning : Over 200 Pages ) ......



Ich konnte wenig Stabilität im 226 Seiten langen EZB Stabilitätsüberblick finden.....

FT

Banks in the 16-nation eurozone face $283bn of further losses this year and next as the recession forces them to write off bad loans, the European Central Bank warned yesterday

> Wishful thinking.....



> Denke das die EZB wie im Regelfall der Musik mal wieder gnadenlos hinterger läuft.... Die Summe würde jeder wohl nur allzu gern für bare Münze nehmen.... Na ja , die EZB erwartet ja auch bereits für 2010 wieder Wachstum.....



The warning, which helped push down the euro against the dollar, came just hours before Moody's, the credit rating agency, downgraded 30 Spanish banks and cajas (unlisted regional savings institutions / see Moody’s bank downgrades, pain in Spain edition & Spanish Banks CDS Ouch!!! via Alea), citing the worsening quality of their loans ( see Chart Of The Day - " 90 Day Delinquency Rates In Spanish RMBS" ) and the struggling Spanish economy.



FT Alphaville

MADRID, June 16 (Reuters) - The number of houses sold in Spain fell by 47.6 percent in April compared to a year earlier, marking the largest percentage fall in 16-straight months of decline, the National Statistics Institute said on Tuesday.

The fates of the eurozone economy and its banks have become increasingly interlinked, the ECB said yesterday in its latest financial stability review report, with bank losses increasingly being caused by bad loans, rather than losses on securities.



Risks to the stability of the financial sector remained high, it said, while "uncertainty prevails" over the banking system's ability to absorb further shocks.



> The exposure to Eastern Europe isn´t "helpful"



> Die extrem starke Stellung in Osteuropa wird die nächsten Jahre ebenfalls wenig hilfreich sein.



Banks' exposure to eastern Europe The Economist

Lucas Papademos, ECB vice-president, said that "a negative interplay" between the financial sector and the economy had become clearer since the start of this year. He stopped short of calling for more transparent stress testing. The ECB, which acts as the monetary authority for the countries that share the euro, is not a bank supervisor.

In spite of the scale of the bank losses forecast by the ECB, its prediction was less gloomy than the International Monetary Fund, which in April put expected writedowns this year and next at $750bn, although taking account of loss provisions and write-offs up until May this year would reduce that to about $540bn.

> I´ll go with the IMF...... Especially in the face of news like this Record Job Losses in Europe via Financial Ninja.... I think it is a safe bet that record job losses will be popping up a a regular basis for years to come....



> Ich bin da eher der Meinung des IMF...... Besonders da wir diese Meldung ( Record Job Losses in Europe via Financial Ninjy ) die nächsten Jahre wohl noch öfter zu hören bekommen werden......



The gap between the ECB and IMF forecasts is due to different assumptions, for instance on the performance of loans.

The ECB also expressed confidence that the eurozone's largest banks could endure any further economic deterioration, saying "most . . appear to be sufficiently well capitalised to withstand severe but plausible downside scenarios".

> Needless to say that i beg to differ...... Taxpayer to the rescue....... This is especially true for the German Landesbanken ( seeGermany's Subprime Crisis: Interview With Achim Dubel & A darkened outlook for Germany’s banks ) The "funny" part is that they were once created to support local economies and are owned by regional governments and savings banks aka the taxpayer.......



> Brauche wohl nicht zu erwähnen das ich diese Meinung nicht teile..... Denke das der Steuerzahler schon bald wieder im großen Stil erneut die Zeche zu zahlen hat ( Bad Banks..... ) Da machen solche Geschichten ( Abstruse Investments der Landesbanken ) gleich doppelt so viel Spaß ....... Passender als Extra 3 ( siehe "Werbespot" der HSH Nordbank ) kann man das Debakel aus deutscher Sicht kaum zusammenfassen ( AusnahmeGermany's Subprime Crisis: Interview With Achim Dubel ) ..... :-)

Chart Of The Day - " 90 Day Delinquency Rates In Spanish RMBS"

One or two more quarters and the 2008 vintages are already catching up with 2005....Let´s hope the ECB with their € 60 billion QE in covered bond purchases ( Update : ECB Said to Have Debated 125 Billion-Euro Asset Package in May ) isn´t getting as reckless as the Fed ( for their latest latest stunt see Fed Bends Over Backward For CMSA, Will Feed Inflation Capacitor With More Toxic Garbage via Zero Hedge ) or the spanish central bank with their brilliant move in selling gold to buy spanish mortgages ( see here).....

Noch ein oder zwei Quartale und die 2008er Daten der "überfälligen" Hypothekenzahlungen werden bereits die für das Jahr 2005 locker hinter sich gelassen haben.....Bleibt zu hoffen das die EZB mit Ihrem QE Versuch ( Kauf von € 60 Mrd Covered Bonds / Pfandbriefen UPDATE: ECB Said to Have Debated 125 Billion-Euro Asset Package in May ) zumindest nicht ganz so unverfroren und unverantwortlich agiert wie es die Fed ja momentan im Wochenryhthmus praktiziert ( siehe gestriges Beispiel Fed Bends Over Backward For CMSA, Will Feed Inflation Capacitor With More Toxic Garbage via Zero Hedge ). Wie bereits vorher berichtet ( siehe hier ) übertrumpft die spanische Zentralbank mit der Entscheidung Ihre Goldreserven zu vertickern und dafür in spanische Hypotheken zu investieren aber selbst Bernanke. Und das ist wirklich ne reife Leistung........ Geradezu Oscarverdächtig......



Hat tip FT Alphaville

With unemployment running close to 20 percent i think it is a safe bet that we are just starting to see the pain ( despite the relief from lower interest payments, almost 100 percent of mortgages have variable rates ( see European Mortgage Market / Percentage Of Variables Rates ) and the Spanish borrower is benefitting heavily from the 1% EZB rate ) But i doubt that this will lead to a much different outcome than in the US ( see A Delinquent Spike / Chart US Delinquencies ) .......

Dank einer Arbeitlslosenquote von knapp 20% dürfte hier demnächst eine Explosion an faulen Krediten fast garantiert sein ( und das trotz der massiven Entlastung durch die sinkenden Zinsbelastungen, im Gegensatz zu Deutschland werden fast 100% der Hypotheken variabel verzinst ( siehe European Mortgage Market / Percentage Of Variables Rates ). Es gibt europaweit wohl kaum eine Kreditnehmergruppe die mehr vom momentanen 1% Leitzins der EZB profitiert , ich denke das selbst dieser Fakt ein ähnliche Entwickluung wie in den USA ( unbedingt den Chart angucken A Delinquent Spike / Chart US Delinquencies ) bestenfalls verlangsamen kann......

UPDATE: Scrutiny of Spain’s potential banking pain increases & Spanish banking pain, Caja Madrid RMBS edition

Caja Madrid - Spain’s second-largest savings bank - said it would skip EUR1.12m in interest payments on residential mortgage-backed securities due to soaring defaults on the underlying home loans.

Caja Madrid issued its RMBS II bonds in 2006....

When defaults reach 18.3 percent, all investors except for those in the highest-ranked notes will be cut off, according to Standard & Poor’s. About 16 percent of the underlying mortgages are now either in arrears by more than 90 days or have already defaulted, S&P data show.

Caja Madrid has sold 9.2 billion euros of mortgage-backed bonds since 2006 in four transactions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The lender packaged home loans it made to borrowers at the peak of Spain’s 14-year real-estate boom

Spain Bubble Watch

For a decade, the Spanish housing sector enjoyed uninterrupted growth, as low interest rates encouraged borrowing. Average house prices have nearly quadrupled during the past 10 years. About 750,000 homes were built in Spain in 2006 -- more than in France, Germany and the U.K. combined.

ECB Tightens Rules On Liquidity Facilities

You know that something was wrong when it was lucrative to dump Australian credit card paper to the ECB..... In general it will be very difficult to shut down the Pandora´s Box of the very broad collateral that all central banks have agreed to accept or at least put up a haircut that is reflecting the underlying risk adequately .... It will be very interesting to see how the central banks balance sheets will look like within a few years...... But compared to what
Chinas central bank is facing Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital ( stunning !! ) the ECB is looking less foolish on a relative basis ......... :-) One of the reasons why i like gold....

Wenn es sich lohnt australische Kreditkartenforderungen zu verpacken und bei der EZB abzuladen wird es aber auch höchste Zeit das die Bedingungen angepasst werden..... Generell ist festzustellen das es den Zentralbanken rund um den Globus sehr schwer fallen dürfte das breite Spektrum das als Sicherheit akzeptiert wird auf ein gesundes Maß zurückzufahren bzw wirklich dem Risiko angemessenen Abschlägen zu versehen. Möchte mir lieber nicht vorstellen wie die Bilanzen der Zentralbanken in ein paar Jahren aussehen werden. Denke es ist nicht verwegen zu behaupten das sich dort ne Menge recht "zweifelhafter" Papiere wiederfinden werden...... Verglichen mit aktuellen Problemen der chinesischen Zentralbank sieht das ganze aber schon wieder halb so wild aus Main Bank of China Is in Need of Capital ..... Wirklich unfassbar! :-) Einer der der etlichen Gründe warum ich eine Goldposition im Depot für mehr als angemessen halte..... Aus der FT Deutschland EZB wird bei Sicherheiten vorsichtiger

Bank Bond Risk Soars to Five-Month High as ECB Tightens Lending
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting European bank bonds from default rose to the highest in five months after the European Central Bank tightened its criteria for lending.

The ECB will charge banks more to borrow by reducing the amount it lends to as little as 16.4 percent below the face value of collateral pledged, President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt today. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Financial index of subordinated debt for 25 European banks and insurers jumped 12 basis points to 177, the highest since April 1, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 6 p.m. in London.....

The ECB is changing its requirements to head off abuse by financial institutions. The ECB accepts a broader range of collateral for loans than the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, including bonds with credit ratings five levels below AAA and asset-backed securities, prompting some firms to create bonds specifically to use as collateral to borrow from the ECB......

`Gaming the System'
ECB council member Yves Mersch said in an interview last month that the central bank is concerned that some financial institutions are ``gaming the system.''

The ECB lent 467 billion euros ($670 billion) last week to banks with operations in the 15-country euro area. Lenders in Spain have almost tripled borrowings from the Frankfurt-based ECB in the past year, the fastest increase in Europe, according to data from the countries' central banks. Spanish banks have stored up 89 billion euros of asset-backed securities to pledge as collateral, according to UniCredit SpA.

Bonds backed by mortgages and other assets accounted for 18 percent of the ECB's loan collateral at the end of 2007, up from 4 percent in 2004, Fitch Ratings data show.

Sydney-based Macquarie Group Ltd. sold bonds backed by Australian consumer loans in June through a special-purpose company in Ireland, enabling investors to use the notes as collateral to borrow from the ECB.

Haircut
The new rules on collateral, which will take effect from February, will apply a discount of 12 percent on asset-backed bonds, up from as little as 2 percent, Trichet said. Bonds that don't trade or are difficult to value will have an additional so-called haircut of 5 percent, Trichet said. The ECB will lend 5 percent less than the face value of unsecured bank bonds.....

WSJ

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the changes would only affect a “small fraction” of the more than one trillion euros of assets banks submit as collateral each year. Asset-backed securities amounted to 16% of the collateral in 2007.

via the FT ( HT Naked Capitalsim )

The changes, which take effect from February 1, include increases in the average “haircuts” applied to asset-backed securities. A haircut is the amount deducted from the market value of a product when judging its value as collateral. In future, a blanket 12 per cent haircut will apply, replacing a previous sliding scale of between 2 per cent and 18 per cent. There will be penalties for asset-backed securities valued using models and for unsecured bank bonds.

Für alle illiquiden ABS nimmt die EZB künftig unabhängig von Laufzeit oder Verzinsung zunächst einen Bewertungsabschlag von 5 Prozent auf den Nominalwert vor und zieht dann zusätzlich einen Risikoabschlag (Haircut) von pauschal zwölf Prozent ab. Damit ergibt sich ein durchschnittlicher Abschlag von 16,4 Prozent. Bisher gelten für solche Papiere nur Haircuts von 2 bis 18 Prozent

The next table is taken from page 39 GUIDELINE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK and is shwoing the structure before yesterdays announcement

Die nachfolge Tabelle ist von Seite 39 GUIDELINE OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK und zeigt die Aufteilung vor der gestrigen Ankündigung.
Here is the ECB release from yesterday introducing a new category

Hier nun die EZB Veröffentlichung von gestern die zudem eine neue Kategorie einführt

4 September 2008 - Biennial review of the risk control measures in Eurosystem credit operations

With regard to the risk control measures applied to marketable assets, a new liquidity category for marketable assets will be introduced (see Table 6 of the “General Documentation”). This new category IV will be composed of credit institution debt instruments (other than Jumbo and traditional covered bank bonds) that were previously part of category III. Old category IV will be renamed category V. The valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets in the different liquidity categories will be as follows

* Assets in this liquidity category that are given a theoretical value (in accordance with Section 6.5 of the “General Documentation”) will be subject to an additional valuation markdown of 5%

As can be seen from the table, assets in new liquidity category V (former liquidity category IV) will be subject to a haircut of 12% regardless of their residual maturity and coupon structure. This corresponds to the level of haircuts that was previously assigned to assets in this liquidity category with a fixed coupon and a residual maturity of over ten years. Furthermore, assets in this liquidity category that are given a theoretical value (in accordance with Section 6.5 of the “General Documentation”) will be subject to an additional valuation haircut. This haircut will be applied directly to the theoretical value of the asset in the form of a valuation markdown of 5%, which corresponds to an additional haircut of 4.4%

Levels of valuation haircuts applied to eligible marketable assets in relation to fixed coupon and zero coupon instruments (percentages)
	Liquidity categories
	Category I		Category II		Category III		Category IV		Category V
Residual maturity (years)	Fixed coupon	Zero coupon	Fixed coupon	Zero coupon	Fixed coupon	Zero coupon	Fixed coupon	Zero coupon	Fixed or zero coupon
0-1	0.5	0.5	1	1	1.5	1.5	6.5	6.5	12*
1-3	1.5	1.5	2.5	2.5	3	3	8	8
3-5	2.5	3	3.5	4	4.5	5	9.5	10
5-7	3	3.5	4.5	5	5.5	6	10.5	11
7-10	4	4.5	5.5	6.5	6.5	8	11.5	13
>10	5.5	8.5	7.5	12	9	15	14	20

The ECB will no longer accept securities in which the issuer bank or a related party is providing support to the transaction through currency swaps or emergency backstop loans, Trichet said.

It will also require bonds to be publicly rated and for the rankings to be explained in published reports. The securities should have new reports from rating firms every three months.

``The losers are the banks retaining bonds to raise cheap collateral, now the cost will be higher,'' said Luca Jellinek, a London-based strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. ``The winners are the rest of the euro system whose collateral has been edged out by retained ABS.''