Grecian Spring

Well the market is down today... -135pts as of 2:15p est..

Would be nice to see a four-digit decline; a '1' or '2' in front of that '135' but still, considering the Dow has been going up for all of 2012 without any rationale or reason beyond empty optimism and the Hunger to profit, we'll celebrate any triple digit down days.

Yesterday we demonstrated once again how deeply uninformed Americans are to the realities going on in Greece.  But as much as blame could be placed on the average person for not caring about anything or anyone outside of the immediate sphere of 'self',  it is also the fault of American media for intentionally doing a piss-poor job to accurately reporting on how troublesome the economic rots of the Eurozone are.

I guess media is incapable of serving corporate master and Truth equally.

Ultimately the economic and political demise of Greece will affect us all, so people better start paying attention to it as if it was local news or your favorite sports team, and not some profit-making nuisance or distant problem far, far away somewhere in the Mediterranean.

Here's some of the latest news and pieces of interest from Greece from today:

--  Greek Bailout "unagreed" 24 hrs after it was agreed upon.  The leader of the rightwing Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS), Georgios Karatzaferis woke up to reality that the cuts would destroy what's left of Greece and pulled back support.  The Euro's value vs the Dollar plunges...  Their political party does not have enough votes in Parliament to derail the 25% reduction in minimum wage, 15,000 job cuts and other austerity sacrifices outright but let's just say their point of view is becoming more and more prevailing, especially as there's April elections to consider.

--  Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has pledged to do "everything necessary" to rescue the €130bn bail-out package for Greece, and said that any senior members of Government who opposed him would be ousted.   Since at least 3 members of the coalition have resigned in protest, maybe ousters aren't necessary.

Isn't democracy just Wonderful?   Anyone who disagrees with your leadership or policy decisions, you simply 'oust'.  Of course Pamademos is a technocrat and wasn't elected by the people (he's simply a banker working for the EU and financial interests to ensure they get their money by all means necessary)

Papademos also said if Greece defaulted, there'd be 'uncontrolled chaos'.  Seems he forgot to finish the sentence... 'for the financial sector'.  And if there is chaos in Greece and the rest of the world, it will be due in large measure because the powers that be refused to make contingencies.  To the stubborn bastards who control global finance there never is nor was an Option B, so any chaos will be intentionally created to scare future debtors from defaulting.

-- Though more symbolic than reality, The Federation of Greek Police have threatened to arrest EU/IMF officials, accusing them, in a formal letter, of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty". They also wrote, ""Since you are continuing this destructive policy, we warn you that you cannot make us fight against our brothers. We refuse to stand against our parents, our brothers, our children or any citizen who protests and demands a change of policy."

There will come a point when the police stop fighting the protesters and join the struggle- then all bets are off, even across the Atlantic.  Hope you have some cash in a sock or something because your local bank will be on government-imposed 'holiday' for a few days to prevent a panic run.

The Greek situation also reminds me of the situation in Wisconsin last February involving that coward Governor Walker, who is in the pocket of the Tea Party controlled Koch Brothers.  He wanted to destroy the unions by making it illegal to collective bargain, so he targeted teachers, firefighters, everyday workers, etc..  The one union that was exempt from the law-- the police union.  That's what all third-world and third-rate leaders do- essentially bribe the police because without them, the leaders are powerless and emasculate.

Well now you're caught up to speed...

If you read this blog, we know you are informed and care.  But your friends... your family... your neighbors are still in a complete state of utter ignorance when it comes to the economic storm clouds coming from Greece and the rest of the Euro.   I could express a thousands analogies but I will only do one:

Due to globalization and banking interdependence, all the nations of the world are economically intertwined, like lights on a string.  When one bulb blows, it will affect all others, no matter how seemingly far away it appears on the string.

When know-it-alls know nothing

~ "I'm tellin' ya.. you gotta' be in the market!  Buy lotta stocks.. ya Gotta!"

Don't know which I hate more- the stock market, those who invest in it or those who report on it.  Tough call- all equally dreadful and in the case of investors and media, both worthy of a face scratching.  The reasons we've stated too often to take time to repeat here.  Suffice it to say, if you're not part of the 1%, you should be wanting to sharpen your claws as well...

But as much as I despise these entities, they also make me laugh at times.  I tend to find it humorous when cocky cock know-it-alls think they have all the answers and can accurately predict economic events based on assumption that all will work out when push comes to shove, then are proven wrong.

Here's a headline from this morning:


Emerging Stocks Set for Biggest Monthly Gain in Three on Greece Optimism (Bloomberg) -- "Emerging-market stocks rose, with the benchmark index set for its largest monthly gain since October, after Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said major progress has been made in debt-swap talks... he’s “strongly committed” to reaching a debt-swap accord with bondholders that is crucial to lowering Greece’s debt burden and freeing up another round of aid before the country faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($19 billion) bond payment on March 20."

And the market rejoiced and figuratively held hands as they danced around in the garden of eternal optimism and never-ending profit making...  La La La...

But then later in afternoon...

Greek officials attack EU and IMF as debt talks stall (Guardian.UK) -- "Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country's mounting debts appeared to stall... a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds...


"On the negotiations over the bailout funds, Greek MPs have objected to demands by the troika for further wage cuts and reductions in the minimum wage.  The troika (European Union, International Monetary Fund & European Commonwealth Bank) doesn't appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses," said the government aide. "No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we're very worried.""

A&G does not pretend to hide the fact we want this to fail and overall, desire Greece to do what it should have done two years ago... Default.

 "Meowww... hate investors & banks sooo much.. Meeeowww!! Rrrr Rrrrr"

Investors and banks have not had to take any real financial hit or punishment since the global economic crisis began with Lehman Bros in Oct, 2008. That is now 39 months.  Its about time they did..  Its about time the ultra-wealthy around the world who do nothing but create misery in populaces then financially profit from it, hemorrhage Severe losses and feel real pain.

Unfortunately the way this game has been played for over 3 years, there's always some magic trick or scheme or compromise pulled from thin air (or someone's ass) to keep all the plates spinning so no one at the top financial echelon ever feels any economic pain.   So we're realistic to the probability that all will work itself out for the bankers and the Investors will continue to rejoice and 'dance'.

But Lord knows, we are not hoping for it.

And if Greece sells all of its soul to the banks, well there's always a ray of hope that the Portuguese wont.. or the Irish... or the Italians.. or the Spanish..

Can't have oxymorons without 'morons'

~ Greek drachma coins

The know-nothings who run the global financial world, and by extension, run and own the financial media, have recently been a wee bit more honest and forthright about Greece's economic situation than any time in the past few years.

Many are openly acknowledging that Greece will default.  But there's a catch isn't there?  Always seems to be one...

The new cool, kitchy-catchy catchphrase to be sweeping the globe on the Top 40 'Bullshit Double-Speak Phrases of the Week Countdown' IS ~drum roll~ :

'Orderly Default'

Of course this is an oxymoron, much like 'military intelligence' or 'sexy pig'.  And if this "orderly" destruction of a nation's economy was so easy or even possible, why wasn't it done two years ago before hundreds of billions of euros were dumped down Greece's drain and its corrupt leaders were so passionately determined to not go back to the drachma and sovereign autonomy?

But for laughs, here's how the scum who control global finance explain it:  Greece's creditors, bondholders, etc allow on its own for Greece to 'default' by taking very large haircuts and supposedly because this is all done "voluntarily", it will not trigger what the European banks and EU fears the most-  Credit Default Swaps

~ 1000 drachma note

CDS are a form of insurance bondholders take out when their investments pose a risk of not being paid back.  The insurance is offered and sold freely from institution to institution, but no one really expects there to be a day they'd have to be paid back.

Think of it like this- Let's say insurance companies sell tons of hurricane coverage policies for NYC and New England residents, never expecting a True Cat. 5 hurricane to directly hit.  So buying the policy is no biggie... the insurance company is happy to take your money.  But if the unforeseen becomes reality, the insurance companies can never cover even a portion of the total damage it would bring.

CDS are no different with one exception-  unlike acts of God, banks and other financials can easily manipulate economics and finance to suit their purposes.

Greece had to be propped up all this time to protect them, not the Greeks.   Now that the realization is upon everyone that Greece will default, the goal is to now perpetrate the investor 'confidence' con -- convince credit rating agencies, banks, and all vested parties the default is 'orderly' and essentially contained.

Will they succeed?  Probably.. unfortunately..   but Hopefully not.

Someone somewhere in global finance and investing-land Must take severe pain and hardship.  Someone somewhere must lose their shirt...

Sink or swim on your own, and if you drown, no one picks you up...  Could have sworn that was what Adam Smith Capitalism was all about...

~ Ancient drachma coins set as cufflinks

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PS.. Didn't feel like writing a new post when a couple sentences suffice..

Reuters headline today:  'IMF seeks $600 Billion more in funds'

Because the US runs/controls the IMF they supply 17.4% of its budget

17.4% of $600 billion is $104.4 billion.. that's how much More money in US taxpayer dollars is requested/needed to bailout Europe's national rots

It Never ends does it?   Perhaps economic capitulation and financial "reset" isn't such a terrible option in comparison..

Basic 101: Derivatives and Credit-Default Swaps

I wanted to use this posting to explain the terms 'derivatives' and 'credit default swaps' (CDS) in the most easy to understand manner possible and connect them to what's going on in Greece so people can really understand what the terms mean and what's going on currently in the news.  But rather than write like a dry economics textbook  and put the reader to sleep, I will do my best to explain using real-world everyday examples.

Let's start with derivatives.  The best way to explain what they are is to take you with me on a magic trip to a casino, specifically the roulette table.  If you're not familiar with roulette and how you bet, etc, hopefully you can still follow along and understand.

The picture above shows what the roulette table looks like.  You can bet on anything- whether the ball on the roulette wheel will land on a specific number, odd or even, black or red and so forth..

Let us say for this example you take $50 in chips and place on the 'Even' box.  This means if the ball lands on an even number between 2-36, you win, if its Odd, you lose.. BUT..your odds are not 50-50.  There are two other numbers on the wheel, 0 and 00 and if the ball lands on either, you will lose your $50

So what do you do to prevent the possibility of the ball landing on 0 or 00 and losing your $50?  You 'hedge' your bet so as to minimize your potential losses.  If you were to place a $10 chip on the 0 and 00 boxes separately, you've just created two derivatives i.e. insurance bets.

Now you're still open to risk because the roulette wheel's spin can land on an Odd number and you lose everything, but the risk has been minimized.  Now usually those entities that engage in derivatives make sure they're protected as much as possible.

So using this example, say you placed a $10 chip on 'Odd' as well, then you have all scenarios covered- 'Even', 'Odd' and 0 & 00.  Your chance at a big payday is greatly minimized but if you were in roulette for the long term, and not just 3-4 spins, then its a safe way to bet and gradually make money.  

Banks and financial  entities are not in the investing game for the short term. They are constantly investing and as long as nothing puts them at risk of a Lehman Bros-type collapse, they will continue wheeling & dealing, and using derivatives as stopgaps against big losses.

Now that you understand what basically derivatives are, let's focus our attention on credit default swaps (CDS).

In this example, we have 4 people- Amy, Beth, Cindy and Dara.

Amy needs money badly so she borrows $500 from Beth at high interest.  Beth lent it to Amy because the profit potential at high interest was too great to pass up, but she really doesn't have a lot of faith she'll get her $$ back.  So Beth contacts Cindy.

Cindy says to Beth for a $25 fee she will insure the loan so that if Amy defaults, she will pay whatever portion of the $500 + interest wasn't repaid if Amy stops paying Beth.  So for the nominal fee, Beth feels secure she'll get all her money back no matter what and at this point it doesn't matter Who the money comes from.  Cindy is acting as an insurance agent.

Now Dara believes Amy will never repay so she wants to get in on the action.  She is a speculator.  Dara also pays Cindy $25 because if Amy defaults, Cindy will be now responsible to two people, Beth and Dara, to cover the portion of the original $500 loan + interest which Amy stops paying.

So here's where it gets tricky...

If Amy pays on time and Beth gets her money back, then Cindy profited $50 while Dara lost her $$ on a speculation bet.  BUT- if Amy stops paying after let's say $100, then Cindy is on the hook for $400 + interest to Beth and Dara EACH!

Oh yes- I forgot, Cindy only has $300 in her life savings so there's absolutely No way she will be able to make good on the insurance to both Beth and Dara.  She only offered the CDS as a means to get quick money and never imagined she'd have to cover the loan!

So Cindy is now forced to 'loan' Amy the $$ she needs to pay Beth even if Amy never repays her back, so as to not trigger the CDS making Cindy on the hook to repay both Beth And Dara, the speculator, which Cindy is in no position to do.
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Now let's tie this all into what's currently going on in Greece.

Investors purchased Greek bonds or 'debt' at high interest rates because Greece's credit rating was so poor.  Because they felt a bit insecure as to what happens if Greece stops paying i.e. default, investors made hedge bets in the form of CDS to banks and financial institutions in Europe who received money at this point for doing nothing but giving assurances to insure the Greek debt so investors would not take a loss or 'haircut'

If Greece pays their debts, the banks keep the money with no losses.

If/when Greece defaults, it means the CDS trigger in... this means they have to pay back the difference of the billions in euros the Greeks defaulted on, not only to the investors, but also speculators who do not directly hold Greek debt but still got in on the action to bet on Greece's default.

Now the European financial institutions thought to themselves, "Maybe we've over-extended ourselves with all these CDS".  So they made insurance bets or sold derivatives to US banks and financials so that if Greece did default, it would somewhat minimize their losses because these US banks would have to pick up the difference.

This exposed US banks and financial institutions to risk from Greek default while keeping 100% of the money if Greece pays their debts.

So basically what's happened is this-  Greece is pretty much insolvent.  It needs more loans to keep making its payments to the investors who hold its debt.  The money is lent by the IMF and ECB not because they expect Greece to pay them back.  Its because its more financially beneficial to give Greece 100 billion euro, let's say, then to have to pay out trillions of euro in CDS to all the investors and speculators upon a default.

I hope this helps people understand what's going on with Greece, the Eurozone, the US and why everyone is so scared of Greece defaulting even though realistically the nation has no chance to survive on its own, and this everyone is in a great quandry.