Basic 101: Derivatives and Credit-Default Swaps

I wanted to use this posting to explain the terms 'derivatives' and 'credit default swaps' (CDS) in the most easy to understand manner possible and connect them to what's going on in Greece so people can really understand what the terms mean and what's going on currently in the news.  But rather than write like a dry economics textbook  and put the reader to sleep, I will do my best to explain using real-world everyday examples.

Let's start with derivatives.  The best way to explain what they are is to take you with me on a magic trip to a casino, specifically the roulette table.  If you're not familiar with roulette and how you bet, etc, hopefully you can still follow along and understand.

The picture above shows what the roulette table looks like.  You can bet on anything- whether the ball on the roulette wheel will land on a specific number, odd or even, black or red and so forth..

Let us say for this example you take $50 in chips and place on the 'Even' box.  This means if the ball lands on an even number between 2-36, you win, if its Odd, you lose.. BUT..your odds are not 50-50.  There are two other numbers on the wheel, 0 and 00 and if the ball lands on either, you will lose your $50

So what do you do to prevent the possibility of the ball landing on 0 or 00 and losing your $50?  You 'hedge' your bet so as to minimize your potential losses.  If you were to place a $10 chip on the 0 and 00 boxes separately, you've just created two derivatives i.e. insurance bets.

Now you're still open to risk because the roulette wheel's spin can land on an Odd number and you lose everything, but the risk has been minimized.  Now usually those entities that engage in derivatives make sure they're protected as much as possible.

So using this example, say you placed a $10 chip on 'Odd' as well, then you have all scenarios covered- 'Even', 'Odd' and 0 & 00.  Your chance at a big payday is greatly minimized but if you were in roulette for the long term, and not just 3-4 spins, then its a safe way to bet and gradually make money.  

Banks and financial  entities are not in the investing game for the short term. They are constantly investing and as long as nothing puts them at risk of a Lehman Bros-type collapse, they will continue wheeling & dealing, and using derivatives as stopgaps against big losses.

Now that you understand what basically derivatives are, let's focus our attention on credit default swaps (CDS).

In this example, we have 4 people- Amy, Beth, Cindy and Dara.

Amy needs money badly so she borrows $500 from Beth at high interest.  Beth lent it to Amy because the profit potential at high interest was too great to pass up, but she really doesn't have a lot of faith she'll get her $$ back.  So Beth contacts Cindy.

Cindy says to Beth for a $25 fee she will insure the loan so that if Amy defaults, she will pay whatever portion of the $500 + interest wasn't repaid if Amy stops paying Beth.  So for the nominal fee, Beth feels secure she'll get all her money back no matter what and at this point it doesn't matter Who the money comes from.  Cindy is acting as an insurance agent.

Now Dara believes Amy will never repay so she wants to get in on the action.  She is a speculator.  Dara also pays Cindy $25 because if Amy defaults, Cindy will be now responsible to two people, Beth and Dara, to cover the portion of the original $500 loan + interest which Amy stops paying.

So here's where it gets tricky...

If Amy pays on time and Beth gets her money back, then Cindy profited $50 while Dara lost her $$ on a speculation bet.  BUT- if Amy stops paying after let's say $100, then Cindy is on the hook for $400 + interest to Beth and Dara EACH!

Oh yes- I forgot, Cindy only has $300 in her life savings so there's absolutely No way she will be able to make good on the insurance to both Beth and Dara.  She only offered the CDS as a means to get quick money and never imagined she'd have to cover the loan!

So Cindy is now forced to 'loan' Amy the $$ she needs to pay Beth even if Amy never repays her back, so as to not trigger the CDS making Cindy on the hook to repay both Beth And Dara, the speculator, which Cindy is in no position to do.
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Now let's tie this all into what's currently going on in Greece.

Investors purchased Greek bonds or 'debt' at high interest rates because Greece's credit rating was so poor.  Because they felt a bit insecure as to what happens if Greece stops paying i.e. default, investors made hedge bets in the form of CDS to banks and financial institutions in Europe who received money at this point for doing nothing but giving assurances to insure the Greek debt so investors would not take a loss or 'haircut'

If Greece pays their debts, the banks keep the money with no losses.

If/when Greece defaults, it means the CDS trigger in... this means they have to pay back the difference of the billions in euros the Greeks defaulted on, not only to the investors, but also speculators who do not directly hold Greek debt but still got in on the action to bet on Greece's default.

Now the European financial institutions thought to themselves, "Maybe we've over-extended ourselves with all these CDS".  So they made insurance bets or sold derivatives to US banks and financials so that if Greece did default, it would somewhat minimize their losses because these US banks would have to pick up the difference.

This exposed US banks and financial institutions to risk from Greek default while keeping 100% of the money if Greece pays their debts.

So basically what's happened is this-  Greece is pretty much insolvent.  It needs more loans to keep making its payments to the investors who hold its debt.  The money is lent by the IMF and ECB not because they expect Greece to pay them back.  Its because its more financially beneficial to give Greece 100 billion euro, let's say, then to have to pay out trillions of euro in CDS to all the investors and speculators upon a default.

I hope this helps people understand what's going on with Greece, the Eurozone, the US and why everyone is so scared of Greece defaulting even though realistically the nation has no chance to survive on its own, and this everyone is in a great quandry.