Saturday, March 27, 2010

Weekend Humor & Update Blogroll

Time for an extra dose of humor & an update.....Cannot believe that i missed Keen so far..... On top of the well known Dilbert i highly recommend to bookmark Alex ....The Greece Episode explains why........

Höchte Zeit für ne extra Portion Humor & ein Update....Kaum zu verzeihen das ich Keen bisher nicht dauerhaft verlinkt habe..... Neben dem inzwischen bekannten Dilbert empfehle ich sich Alex als festen Tagesordnungspunkt vorzunehmen..... Die Griechenland Episode erklärt warum.....



UPDATE BLOGROLL:

Steve Keen´s Debtwatch & Financial Times Money Supply & King World News

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Another "Reassuring" Sovereign Debt Chart........

Almost as "impressive" as this chart...... Taken from Dylan Grice Discusses When To Take Profits On Gold: Hint - Not For A Long While via ZH UPDATE: Speaking of Portugal and sovereign risk: a downgrade

Fast so "eindrucksvoll" wie dieser Chart...... Mehr zum Chart gibt es in Dylan Grice Discusses When To Take Profits On Gold: Hint - Not For A Long While via ZH UPDATE: Speaking of Portugal and sovereign risk: a downgrade

A reduction of this magnitude without a depression and social "tensions" is highly unlikely ...... Especially when the numbers are based on "realistic" forecasts that even would make "Wall Street Finest" proud.....

Eine Reduzierung in dieser Größenordnung ist ohne eine gefühlte Depression sowie starken sozialen "Spannungen" nicht vorstellbar..... Besonders vertrauenerweckend ist zudem das die Prognosen auf gewohnt konservativen Annahmen basieren die selbst Wall Street Finest blaß aussehen lassen..... ;-)

via NYT

This explains why GOLD Is Not A $ Story........ Wouldn´t also surprise me if charts like this won´t be seen as "unusual" any more down the road......

Damit erklärt sich auch leicht warum GOLD keinesfalls lediglich eine $ Story ist........ Zudem befürchte ich insgeheim das selbst zur Zeit noch aussergewöhnliche Charts wie dieser nicht länger die absolute Ausnahme bleiben......

The following story fits perfectly.......

Die nachfolgende Meldung passt da hervorragend ins Gesamtbild......

Obama Pays More Than Buffett as U.S. Risks AAA Rating

March 22 (Bloomberg) — The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama. Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.
Reassuring........ At least the worldwide banking system is now "well capitalised" and not in danger of needing another bailout....... ;-)

Sehr vertrauenserweckend.... Immerhin sind ja inzwischen die Banken weltweit "well capitalised" und dürften die Sanierung der Staashauhalte auf Jahre hinaus nicht weiter belasten..... ;-)

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Cramer´s Bull Case For Banks..... I Can Smell A Top... ;-)

Oh boy..... After the ( even by his standarts.... ) famous "Housing & Bank Stock Shortage" call from January 2008 ( NO KIDDING > see "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls" ) was a little bit "premature" he is predicting a bank stock shortage version 2.0.... Would at least be honest if he mentioned the "ultimate moral hazard trade" & the "Enron-esque characteristics" when it comes to accounting as the two main reasons behind the motives to own banks.. ;-)

Die Euphorie ist zurück........ Nachdem derselbe Typ Januar 2008 leicht "verfrüht" bereits einmal eine "Housing & Bank Stock Shortage" ( siehe "Ten Trillion $ Worth Of Good Calls") proklamiert hat ist es höchtse Zeit für eine Version 2.0.....Wäre zumindest ehrlich gewesen wenn er in seinen 10 Gründen die unbedingt dafür sprechen sofort massiv Bankaktien zu kaufen den "ultimativen Moral Hazard Trade" sowie die kreative Bilanzierung die stark "Enron-esque characteristics" aufweist als die Topgründe aufführen würde.... ;-)





Just for the record here are the two main ETF´s tracking the financial sector.....

Nur um die Daten festzuhalten nachfolgend die beiden relevanten Bank/Finanz EFT´s....

Financial Select Sector ETF) $ 15,47 & KBW Regional Banking (ETF) $ 25,47

Needless to say that both ( along with almost every asset class worldwide ) are trading at 52 week highs & had the longest winning streaks since 1995.....Especially Citigroup seems to be a "real bargain"... ;-)

Überflüssig zu erwähnen das die EFT´s ( wie fast alle anderen Anlageklassen weltweit ) auf Jahreshochs stehen & gerade die längste Gewinnserie seit 1995 hinter sich haben....Besonders Citigroup scheint ein "echtes Schnäppchen" zu sein... ;-)

John Hussman Rips Apart CNBC ZH

In reflecting on why the past 15 years have been so riddled by irresponsible speculation, it is impossible to ignore the rise over that same period of widely-viewed financial programming that is equally riddled with cartoonish content that encourages short-term thinking and speculation (buy-buy-buy! sell-sell-sell! boo-yah!)
"Anti Spin" from Chris Whalen via NC ( MUST READ!!!!)

In fact, the banking system is continuing to sink under bad loans and even worse securities losses. Telling the public that the banks are “fixed” is irresponsible. Unfortunately this false perception is widespread, including among major media such as CNBC and also with a number of my clients in the hedge fund world.
But at least Bubblevision is a very good tool to spot sentiment......

Immerhin muß man Bubblevision lassen das es kaum ein besseres Barometer gibt wenn es darum geht die Stimmungen "einzufangen".....

UPDATE: Unrelated....... Ohne Bezug.... ;-)

Citi: Bove Raises to “Buy”; Citicorp Is New Model for U.S. Banks
He figures Citi is worth about $8.50 in that outlook.
"Wall Street Finest & Lehman June 2008 ZH

Hoenig Says Big Banks Must Either Add $210 Billion In New Capital Or Reduce Total Assets By $3 Trillion; Bank Capital Raises Imminent ZH

Monday, March 8, 2010

Maybe This Time It Is Different.........

So far every bet against the Japanese bond market was a disaster..... But the latest move from the GPIF ( $1.37 trln / 66.32percent of its assets in domestic bonds ! see Profile GPIF Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan ) is really looking "unconventional".....

Bisher ist jeder der gegen japanische Staatsanleihen (JGB) gewettet hat übelst auf den Bauch gefallen.... Da der letzte Schritt des 1.37 trln $ schweren und zu knapp 66% in JGB´s investierten GPIF ( mehr Details GPIF Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan ) allerdings doch recht "unkonventionell" daherkommt ist der Ausgang zwischen Bullen und Bären wohl ungewisser denn je.....

H/T Claire Morel / Reuters

‘Japan’s brewing fiasco’ SocGen’s Dylan Grice via FT Alphaville

The biggest JGB holder on the planet – the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) – which has already admitted it’s no longer able to roll maturing bonds, has announced that it will open credit lines so it doesn’t have to sell them to fund its obligations…

To spell that out: we are going into a year in which the government has ¥213 trillion of bonds to roll over… and the biggest holder of JGBs is openly admitting he has no new inflows of money

Click here & here to get the entire report... Some pretty scary charts & the following stat............

Den kompletten Research Report gibt es hier & hier ... Einige extrem unschöne Charts sowie die nachfolgende Zahl..........

So who will fund the Japanese government´s deficit in the future? It is not likely to be the international capital markets, especially if its bonds are offering only a 1.5% yield.

But if international investors were to demand triple that, pricing JGBs in line with international bond market peers (all priced too generously in my opinion) the game would soon be up because Japan´s current debt service already amounts to 35% of pre-bond issuance revenues.

H/T Zero Hedge

For more on this topic make sure you visit the excellent slide show Japan - The Point Of No Return from Vitaliy N. Katsenelson via Barry

Wer mehr zu diesem Thema sehen möchte dem empfehle ich die erstklassige Ansammlung von Charts Japan - The Point Of No Return von Vitaliy N. Katsenelson via Barry

GOLD Is Not A $ Story........ ;-)

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

GOLD Is Not A $ Story........

Nice addtition to an earlier posting.....

Nette Ergänzung zu einem früheren Posting.....

Barrons

[Pedal to Metal]

Unrelated..... ;-) / Ohne jeden Bezug..... ;-)

8 reasons Wall Street loses another 20% in this decade Paul B. Farrell

.... the past decade. Wall Street lost trillions, lost 11% of your money. Adjusted for inflation, Wall Street lost 20% of your money.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Germany vs. Greece

Time to end the populism ( important to note that the outburst comes only from one or two desperate politicians ) and start to look on the bright side of life......

Unglaublich das ausgerechnet ein Focus Cover solch eine populistische ( möchte darauf hinweisen das diese Attacken lediglich von einem bis zwei verzweifelten Politikern gefahren werden ) Reaktion hervorrufen kann.... Höchste Zeit für mehr Sachlichkeit auf allen Ebenen.....



H/T Ptoemmes

PS: IT WAS OFFSIDE / ES WAR ABSEITS ! ;-)

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Three Quarters Of All German Exports Going To Europe

Correction: For 2009 the number is 63% ......I´m pretty sure the "experts" have figured this "minor" fact into their as usual conservative "Reported Earnings vs Operating Earnings Formula" for German companies ( and with almost $265 Billion in goodwill on the balance sheets of German listed companies this "magic" technique is more important than ever....) ....... Even while several "German Titans" are tied to global growth ( in my mind not sustainable ) i think it is important to keep the strong dependency on Europe in mind when very soon the same guys will tell us that the weak € will rescue Germany/Europe etc..... UPDATE: Spain’s woes and Germany’s export model could mean double dip Edward Harrison

KORREKTUR: Für 2009 beträgt der Anteil 63%..... Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die "Experten" die extrem starke Abhängigkiet von Europa ( UPDATE : Deutsche Exporteure erleiden herben Rückschlag ) wie gewohnt in Ihre extrem "konservativen" "Reported Earnings vs Operating Earnings Formula" miteinbezogen haben ( und bei schlappen 189 Mrd € in Goodwill die in DAX,MDAX und TECDAX Bilanzen schlummern ist diese "magische Formel" wichtiger denn je.... ) . Selbst wenn einzelne deutsche Firmen überdurchschnittlich vom globalen Wachstum ( welches meiner Meinung nicht nachhaltig ist ) profitieren kann man gespannt sein wie lange es dauert das trotz extremer Euroabhängigkeit der schwache € als Kaufargument "ausgepackt" wird.....Selbstredend von denselben "Experten"..... UPDATE: Spain’s woes and Germany’s export model could mean double dip Edward Harrison

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of provisional data, 75.0% (EUR 746.6 billion) of all goods exported from Germany in 2008 (to the value of EUR 994.9 billion) went to European countries.

The second largest sales market for German goods was Asia with a share of 11.8% (EUR 117.2 billion), followed by America with a share of 10.2% (EUR 102.0 billion).

Only 2.0% (EUR 19.7 billion) of all German exports were sold to Africa and 0.8% (EUR 7.6 billion) to Australia and Oceania.

Compared to Tony Dwyer with his unique "playbook" the DAX estimates indeed look muted. ;-)

Verglichen mit dem US "Experten"
Tony Dwyer sehen allerdings die Prognosen für den DAX noch moderat aus.....;-)
H/T TGTGT

I just couldn´t resist to post this quote........

Konnte mir einfach nicht verkneifen das nachfolgende Zitat zu posten.......

BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey October
"Europe is emerging phoenix-like from the ashes as confidence in its banks boosts overall confidence in European equities," said Gary Baker, head of European equity strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
:-) !