Monday, December 22, 2008

Merry Christmas / Frohe Weihnachten

I´ll be taking a few days off over the holidays & the new year and wish every reader & their families a merry christmas and a healthy new year.

Ich werde mir über die Feiertage mal eine Auszeit gönnen und wünsche allen Lesern & deren Familien ein besinnliches Weihnachtsfest und ein gesundes neues Jahr.


I guess "Bad Santa" has to work overtime this year........

Tippe mal das "Bad Santa"dieses Jahr ein paar mal mehr ausrücken muß........

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Number Of The Day "Japan´s Export Plunge Record 27 Percent"

WOW! The strong Yen didn´t help......... I expect that the entire currency complex has the potential to become the next "battleground" ( hopefully not combined with "trade wars" see Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. from Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)........ The race to the bottom is already underway..... Let´s hope that we won´t see a crash of a major currency ( british Pound )...... At least there will be always a bull market ( one weak vs another less weak currency)..... Got Gold......?

Donnerwetter! Bleibt zu hoffen das wir als vergleichbare Exportnation etwas besser abschneiden...... Denke den Japanern wird gerade jetzt der erstarkte Yen nicht sonderlich gefallen..... Ich befürchte das uns das Thema Wechselkurse in den kommenden Jahren desöfteren heimsuchen wird ( hoffnetlich nicht auch in Form von "Handelskriegen" siehe auch Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. von Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)...... Der Versuch die Währung möglichst schwach zu halten ist weltweit bereits im vollen Gange. Ich würde mir nur wünschen das wir das ohne Kollaps eine der größeren Währungen überstehen. Denke da besonders an das britische Pfund...... Immerhin ermöglichen diese Märkte immer einen garantierten Bullenmarkt ( schwache vs einer wenigen schwachen Währung ) ...... Got GOLD?

Thanks to Bespoke

Japan Exports Plunge Record 27% as Recession Deepens Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.

Exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. That was more than the 22.3 percent decline estimated by economists and the sharpest since comparable data were made available in 1980.

Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34 percent and sales to China slumped the most in 13 years

The government today lowered its assessment of the world’s second-largest economy, saying it’s “worsening” for the first time since 2002. Gross domestic product shrank in the past two quarters, sending Japan into its first recession since 2001.

Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and Sony Corp. are among the companies that are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits dwindle. Car exports slid 32 percent last month, the most ever, and semiconductors slumped 29 percent, the ministry said.

UPDATE : Toyota Forecasts First Operating Loss in 71 Years on Yen, Sales

Compounding the drop in demand is the stronger yen, which erodes overseas profits. Every 1 yen gain against the dollar and euro trims Toyota’s annual operating profit by 40 billion yen and 6 billion yen, according to the company. The carmaker in November based its second-half earnings outlook on 100 yen to the dollar and 130 yen to the euro.



Today’s report showed the global recession is spreading to the emerging markets that propped up exports as demand from the U.S. and Europe evaporated. Exports to Asia fell 27 percent, the most in 22 years. Shipments to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, tumbled 25 percent, the steepest decline since 1995.

Exports to Europe slid 31 percent, the second-most ever.

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Banana Republik Watch "Korea Edition"

Oh boy....... At least they have still a few people left in Korea paying attention to analysts at all....... Sooner or later they will realize that they very often provide the best value as an contrary indicator ( see Wall Street Finest ) .......

Leider kein Witz...... Immerhin gibt in Korea anscheinend noch einige die überhaupt einen Pfifferling auf das Urteil von sogenannten Analysten setzen....... Ich nutze Sie seit Jahren nur noch als Kontraindikator bzw. zur wenn ich mal wieder was aus den Rubriken Satire & Science Fiction lesen möchte....... Spare mir so das Abo der "Titanic"...... :-).... Hier ein paar Beispiele ( siehe Wall Street Finest )......

South Korea to investigate foreign brokerages (FT) South Korean’s broking regulator is to
investigate all “sell” recommendations by foreign brokerages
made in the last three months in the wake of a fall of nearly 40 per cent in the benchmark Kospi index this year.

The Korean Securities Dealers Association said on Wednesday it had asked 19 foreign brokerages, including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, to submit all “sell” reports on Korean shares issued between September and November.

“The public consensus is that foreign research reports are having a negative impact on stock prices
,” the KSDA said. “The public see some problems about their fairness so we want to review the reports.”

The association said it expected to receive the “sell” reports by the end of this week, and would review “whether their reports are fair or whether their sell calls were based on proper reasons.”

However,
the association is not asking for research reports from local brokerages, which rarely issue “sell” recommendations
The KSDA conducted a similar probe into both domestic and foreign brokerages two years ago.

The investigation follows growing complaints by local companies against foreign research reports recommending “sell” on their shares.

In October, the FSS warned JP Morgan about a research report recommending that investors sell Hana Financial Group shares, saying that the recommendation was based on “too conservative” non-performing loans ratio.
JP Morgan later terminated coverage of Hana, saying that it cannot have access to necessary information critical to its research. JP Morgan declined to comment on the case.

In September, Goldman Sachs issued a “sell” report on Kookmin Bank, the country’s biggest commercial lender. Kookmin immediately replaced Goldman Sachs with Merrill Lynch as its adviser for selling treasury shares.

Foreign brokerages in Korea have long been plagued by suspicions that “sell” calls are linked to short-selling activities. Financial regulators have undertaken a separate investigation into short-selling but the results have yet to be announced.

Foreign brokers dispute these claims. “It is nonsense. We have strict standards against such practices. We have a strong firewall between research and investment departments,” said a senior official at a foreign brokerage. “We wonder if the probe is really to protect investors.”

The investigation has sparked strong resistance among foreign brokerages, whose reports are increasingly influential in the local stock market.

“We are completely flabbergasted by this move. Analysts independently issue their opinion for institutional investors, based on their research and insight into the companies. It is totally up to our clients and investors whether or not to take the view,” another foreign brokerage said.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Number Of The Day " European Volvo Net New Truck Orders Now Negative"

I have a strong feeling that we will see similar order intakes from other parts of the world & and different industries in the not so distant future...... I cannot help but somehow the erosion ( or implosion ) of the backlock from the homebuilders comes to my mind....... I assume we will see a comeback of "vendor financing" ...... I have already heard chatter on this topic in several conference calls from GE, Siemens, Boeing, EADS etc...... Wouldn´t be the first time this "strategy" will be backfiring down the road..... But with very few companies having a strong balance sheet going into this long downturn there is at least some hope this won´t get out of control.... But with the culture to prefer short term gains still not dead .......

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher das wir ähnliche Orderdaten demnächst auch aus anderen Teilen der Welt und leider auch aus anderen Branchen sehen werden....... Das ganze ruft in mir Erinnerungen an die Implosion der angeblich vollen Auftragsbücher bei den Homebuildern wach....... Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher das wir demnächst ein Comeback der Lieferantefinanzierung sehen werden....... Konkrete Aussagen zu diesemThema gab es bereits von Siemens, GE, Boeing und EADS...... Wäre nicht das erste mal das diese Strategie auf lange Sicht mit hohen Risiken verbunden ist. Da aber kaum ein Unternehmen momentna ne starke Bilanz vorzuweisen hat dürften uns Auswüchse wie in der Vergangenheit ( erinnere an die Telekomzulieferer die nachher auf Mrd. an Forderungen sitzen geblieben sind ) erspart bleiben......

Reuters World number two truckmaker Volvo said on Tuesday deliveries had tumbled 21 percent year-on-year in November and that its order book was shrinking rapidly amid a sharp market contraction.

Volvo, whose brands include Renault, Nissan Diesel and Mack as well as its own name, said deliveries fell 42 percent in its biggest market, Europe, and 22 percent in North America.

Volvo has already suffered the effects of this decline, reporting in late October a 100 percent fall in order bookings after clearing its books of uncertain orders and cancellations ( see Number / Shocker Of The Day "Volvo New Truck Orders"..... ) . .

Volvo said a weak order trend from the third quarter had continued

with the number of cancelled orders in October and November eclipsing new orders by some 1,800 trucks in Europe.

"When we saw zero order intake in the third quarter, it looked like this couldn't get any worse -- but it has," said an analyst who asked not to be identified.

"A negative order intake in Europe, that probably had not been anticipated by the market."


> To end on a positive note..... Volvo is up almost 4 percent on this kind of news ( and 30% from the bottom a few weeks ago ) and all competitors ( Scania, MAN, Daimler ) are also in the green.......

> Nach soviel Doom & Gloom ist es zumindest mehr als bemerkenswert das Volvo fast 4% im Plus notiert ( und nebenbei bemerkt satte 30% vom Tief vor einigen Wochen ) und auch alle relevanten Wettbewerber ( Scania, MAN, Daimler ) im grünen Bereich sind......

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Chart Of The Day "Dow Vs Gold"

The following chart was buried in the comments from my previous post on gold (Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ). I think this perspective on the valuation of gold deserves "deserves" a sperate post. Further blogging activity will be light until 2009



Der nachfolgende Chart war in den Kommentaen zum letzten Goldposting ( Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan. ) vergraben. Denke der ist so aussagekräftig das das ich Ihn nochmal gesondert poste. Meine Blogginaktivität wird über die Feiertage bis Anfang 2009 minimal sein.



Chart Of The Day

How significant is this bear market? It all depends on how you measure. When measured in US dollars, the Dow currently trades 39.5% off its October 2007 record high. However, when measured with that other world currency (gold), the picture is actually more dismal. To help illustrate the point, today's chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 10.5 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces it took back in 1999.

When priced in gold, the US stock market has been in a bear market for the entire 21st century.



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Thursday, December 11, 2008

This Ponzi Scheme Won´t Get A Bailout.......

Unlike others...... I still hope that at least the $ 50 billion number won´t be confirmed but it really looks like this story has the potential to rival the failed auto bailout. Even if the real number is only a fraction this will send shockwaves trough the hedge fund industry and could lead to much more forced selling..... At least the players now burned with billions call themselves "smart money" so we really shoulnd´t feel any mercy ( especially after you have read the "Cassandra Does Tokyo" or "Ft Alphaville" link. Naked Shorts back in 2001 questioned this how "Bernie" Madoff "created" his performance Madoff tops charts;skeptics ask how ).... On the auto topic it wouldn´t surprise me if we will see a TARP solution for the automakers during the next few days..... Wouldn´t be the first u turn from Paulson... :-)

Das wird ein Schneelballsystem sein das im Gegensatz zu anderen an Wall Street nicht rausgehauen wird..... Ich hoffe insgeheim immer noch das die Summe von 50 Mrd $ nicht bestätigt wird aber nichtsdestotrotz hat diese Geschichte das Zeug selbst den gescheiterten Rettungsversuch der US Autoindustrie zu toppen. Selbst wenn die Summe um einiges geringer ausfällt wird dieser Vorfall zu einem weiteren massiven Vertrauensverlust und einem Run auf die Hedge Fonds und damit zu weiteren massivsten Zwangsverkäufen führen...... Dab zu den Geschädigten wohl in erster Linie andere Hedge Fonds gehören hält sich mein Mitgefühl aber sehr in Grenzen ( besonders nachdem man den Insiderbericht von "Cassandra Does Tokyo" & "FT Alphaville" Link gelesen hat die klar belegen das die ausgewiesenen Gewinne seit Jahren nicht stimmig sein können. Siehe auch diese Schlagzeile aus dem Jahr 2001 von Naked Shorts Madoff tops charts;skeptics ask how)........In Sachen Autoindustrie würde es mich nicht wundern wenn plötzlich ( binnen der nächsten Tage ) doch noch eine Lösung im Rahmen der TARP Gelder gefunden wird..... Wäre ja nicht die erste 180 Grad Wendung von Paulson & Co......

Bernie Madoff: The Indictment Original Filing / Original Anklagegeschrift via Henry Blodget / Clusterstock A MUST READ!

He Madoff with how much??? FT Alphaville

“This guy has managed to produce 1-1.2% PER MONTH, year after year after year…” Quote from a ( now money losing ...) client on May 2 2008 ...... via FT Alphaville

Madoff ‘Big Lie’ Hits Fairfield Sentry, Kingate Funds Bloomberg

A $50 Billion Fraud? So Where is the Money? Naked Capitalism

Ex-Nasdaq-Chef wegen Milliarden-Betrugsverdacht festgenommen Der Spiegel

The Madoff Complaint Calculated Risk

Bernie Comes Out of the Closet Cassandra Does Tokyo

> Hard to believe that this "likable" person has probably committed the "mother Of All Ponzi Schemes"....

> Fällt einem schwer zu glauben das dieser "sympatische" ältere Herr die "Mutter aller Schneeballsysteme durchgezogen hat.....


> Too bad that Madoff couldn´t hide his losses under some kind of level 3 accounting......

> Zu dumm das im Gegensatz zu den Banken Madoff seine Verluste nicht hinter der Level 3 Bilanzkosmetik verschleiern konnte......

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Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Gold’s Post-Bubble Performance In The UK, US And Japan.

I still think that we will see deflation in the US and other parts of the world but in the end i think the report from Dresdner is spot on....... Needless to say that i call myself a goldbug and have "little" faith in any fiat currency...... It´s probably helpful ( often overlooked ) to note that Gold in reaching new highs in almost every other world currency besides the $ ( see Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Would be nice to see a goldchart vs the Icelandic Krona or the Forint......

Ich bin nach wie vor der Meinung das es in naher Zukunft eine Deflation in weiten Teilen der Welt geben wird. Im Endeffekt wird es aber zu dem im Dresdner Report geschilderten Ergebnis kommen...... Wohl überflüssig zu erwähnen das ich ein Goldbug bin und mein Misstrauen hinsichtlich Währungen nicht nur auf den $ ( obwohl dort extrem ausgeprägt ...) beschränkt ist.....Werde zumindest nicht mehr ganz so offen belächelt wie noch vor einigen Jahren..... PS: Bei der Qualität der heimischen Wirtschaftspresse ist es wenig überraschend das oftmals lediglich der Goldpreis in $ behandelt wird. Dabei wird wie nicht anders zu erwarten in schöner Regelmäßigkeit ausser Acht gelassen das Gold in den anderen Leitwährungen momentan nahe historischen Hochs notiert ( siehe Goldchart in €, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Yen etc ) . Habe leider keinen Goldchart vs islänsiche Krone oder ungarischen Forint auftreiben können......

Thanks again to Wall Street Follies

FT Alphaville

One way to combat the mess of a bubble popping is, as Dresdner puts it,“reducing confidence in the value of money” — i.e. creating inflation.

What the rise in the US and UK gold price tells us is that those two countries (assuming gold is in fact acting as an inflationary hedge here) are not shying away from their inflationary task.

They are, unlike Japan, really going for it.

Dresdner - Gold performance

Back to Dresdner:

Japan had no Japanese precedent to study. The last experience of deflation was buried so far in the past that anyone predicting a recurrence could be safely dismissed as a crank. The BoJ was dominated by inflation vigilantes who bitterly rued inflating the bubble and were determined at all costs to avoid a repeat. They remained far behind the curve and allowed growth in the monetary base to collapse. The contrast with the United States could not be clearer. Ben Bernanke is an authority on the historical experiences of deflation, and in his famous speech of 2002 laid out his playbook for all to see.
And to conclude:

No policy response to a post-bubble bust can ever be free of unintended consequences. The speed and scale of the current economic fiasco as good as ensures that the mistakes will be serious. The key question for investors is whether over the long haul their bias will be deflationary (too little, too late) or inflationary (too much, too fast). Given the different pressures that policymakers are working under, we find it hard to believe that the world as a whole will choose the Japanese path.
UPDATE: Prefect timing.....

If you still have some doubts make sure you read the latest (desperate) Fed effort via Naked Capitalism Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet

Sollte immer noch leichte Zweifel bestehen dem empfehle ich einen Blick auf den neuesten (verzweifelten) Versuch der Fed zu werfen Fed Ponders Issuing Debt to Finance Its Mushrooming Balance Sheet Via Naked Capitalism

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Sunday, December 7, 2008

Another Private Equity Deal That Went Bust Within 24 Months

Commercial Real Estate (CRE) & Private Equity...... When ever you hear this combination during the next few years it will be almost to 100 percent in connection with disastrous deals...... No surprise that Blackstone & Fortress are involved once again....... :-) The enitire CRE complex will be the next very very big headache for the balance sheets from banks...... It´s a safe bet that we will hear similar stories also from the LBO front on a regularly basis ( see Tribune Co. Could Be Flirting With Bankruptcy NYT) ......

Wann immer in den nächsten Monaten die Begriffe Commercial Real Estate & Private Equity im Zusammenhang auftauchen kann man sicher sein das es sich fast zu 100% um das implodieren von Mrdschweren Deals handelt...... Sicher auch kein Zufall das die Namen Blackstone und Fortress in schöner Regelmäßigkeit auftauchen..... Der gesamte Bereich der gewerblichen Immobilien wird noch für extrem große Kopfschmerzen bei den Bänkern und entsprechend große Löcher in den Bilanzen der Banken sorgen...... Wir werden uns an ähnliche Schlagzeilen vor allem auch im Zusammenhang mit den berühmt berüchtigen LBO´s von "Pirate " Equity sowie fremdfinanzierten Übernahmen im allgemeinen ( z.B. CONTI/SCHAEFFER..... ) gewöhnen müssen..... UPDATE: Erster großer Autozulieferer meldet Insolvenz an Manager Magazin

WSJ Extended Stay Could Transfer Chain to Lenders
Extended Stay Hotels Inc. is in early talks that could result in turning the hotel chain over to its lenders, a sign of the deep trouble awaiting the commercial real-estate business.

Extended Stay's difficulties signal a new phase of distress in commercial real estate, because they arise directly from the weakening economy. Until now, problems have mostly involved developers unable to obtain refinancing for otherwise healthy operations.

Lightstone Group LLC, Lakewood, N.J., bought Extended Stay from Blackstone Group LP for $8 billion in April 2007. The deal was highly leveraged, hastening Extended Stay's troubles. The chain has no major debt expirations due soon
But Extended Stay's cash flow is crashing, as business activity across the country contracts. That is putting fewer people in its 684 U.S. and Canadian hotels, used by corporate travelers on long assignments. Extended Stay has 13,000 employees. It is too soon to say if a takeover by lenders would result in layoffs or hotel closings, according to people familiar with the matter.

As conditions deteriorate, Extended Stay has been forced into discussions with its lenders, and people involved in the talks say a transfer of ownership could come within a month or two. Extended Stay has recently hired Lazard Ltd. as financial adviser and New York law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges as bankruptcy counsel......

During the real-estate lending boom, Wall Street originated $600 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities. The default rate on commercial mortgage debt has remained near historic lows, even while residential-related debt suffered a severe downturn.

But that is now beginning to change, sending new shock waves into much-battered banks, private-equity funds and other financial institutions that participate in the $1 trillion commercial real-estate debt market. Hotel landlords typically are the first to feel the pain in a downturn because hotels have the shortest leases in real estate -- one night at a time.
> I just cannot wait for this deal Hilton's $20 Billion Sale to Blackstone Is Completed to blow up........
> Ich denke es wird nicht mehr lange dauern und der absolute Königsdeal unter den Hotelbuyouts ( Hilton's $20 Billion Sale to Blackstone Is Completed ) dürfte in ähnliches Fahrwasser geraten.....

( OKTOBER 2007 ) The sale, for $26 billion including debt, is a record for the hotel industry. New York-based Blackstone, which already owns the La Quinta lodging chain, joins Apollo Management LP and TPG Inc. in targeting hotel companies for their cash flow and real estate.

An Extended Stay failure reveals how a commercial real-estate downturn could ripple through the financial system.

When Lightstone Group and preferred equity partner Arbor Realty Trust bought Extended Stay from private-equity firm Blackstone Group in 2007, it borrowed more than $7.4 billion. Wachovia Corp., Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Fortress Investment Group put in $3.1 billion in so-called mezzanine financing, which isn't as highly secured as other types of debt. People involved in the transaction say an analysis of the company's value shows that much or all of the mezzanine debt could be wiped out in any renegotiated deal.
Bondholders have hired Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin for restructuring talks.

Extended Stay is still meeting its debt service, but people familiar with the matter say it could default within the next 60 days if the economic downturn continues as expected. Revenue per available room, or RevPar, a common hotel-industry measure, will be down more than 10% this year at Extended Stay, according to someone familiar with the matter. Much of that decline has come in the last two months.

But it was the Extended Stay deal that was Mr. Lichtenstein's biggest. Extended Stay has operations in 44 states and Canada. It was also among his riskiest deals, as

Lightstone, with help from Arbor Realty, arranged to put down just $600 million of equity, or 8% of the total price. (Blackstone, which made about $3 billion on the sale, kept an equity interest.)
Mr. Lichtenstein saw increasing demand from business travelers who needed hotel accommodations for weeks or even months at a time. He also believed he could unlock value at Extended Stay by taking advantage of the chain's size and paying more attention to management.

A couple of months after the deal closed, Mr. Lichtenstein acknowledged the easy money that helped him complete the deal had disappeared. "We were one of the last deals in," he said.

Troubles also have surfaced at Lightstone's Prime Retail division, which owns roughly 30 malls and shopping centers in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Lightstone has sought to turn over at least six of its malls to lenders after falling behind on debt payments.

UPDATE via NYT:

Similar screenplays/attributes can be attached to almost every other deal from "pirate" equity since 2005....

Ähnlichen Drehbüchern dürften fast alle Übernahmen von "Pirate" Equity seit 2005 früher oder soäter folgen......

The Boom Went Bust

In a report by the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, 86 companies weren’t meeting their debt obligations through mid-November of this year, with 53 of those, or 62 percent, having ties to private-equity firms at one point in their lives.

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Saturday, December 6, 2008

Update Blogroll

I have been lazy in updating my blogroll for some time now. Here are some new entries that i reald regularly.

Ich bin ich letzter Zeit etwas nachlässig in Sachen Atualisierung meiner Blogroll gewesen. Hier ein paar Neuzugänge die ich in schöner regelmäßigkeit selber lese.

Jesse's Café Américain

EconomicPic Data

Paul Kedrosky´s Infectious Greed

Option ARMageddon

Have a nice weekend. Time for a repost of a classic. I think we are somewhere between Stage 3 & 4......

Allen ein schönes Wochenende. Mal wieder höchste Zeit ein mehr als treffendes Video zu posten. Denke wir sind irgendwo zwischen Stufe 3 & 4.....

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

I Want My Buyback Back......" Sears / Eddie Lampert Edition"

This is even worse than Daimler ( see How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... ). Unbelievable that only 24 month ago Eddie "the Eagle" Lampert was viewed as the next Warren Buffet and was the paid hedge funds guy...... But with his current holdings ( see ESL Holdings i´ll bet that he will be out of business very soon.......

Dieses Beispiel schafft es sogar Daimler vom Sockel ( siehe How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... ) zu stossen. Unfassbar das Eddie "the Eagle" Lampert noch vor 24 Monaten als der nächste Warren Buffet gefeiert worden ist und als einer der bestbezahlten Hedgefondsmanager gegolten hat...... Wenn man einen Blick auf seine aktuellen Beteilgungen wirft ( siehe ESL Holdings ) dürfte klar sein das dieser Typ demnächst ausgezockt hat..... Bin mir ziemlich sicher das die Rubrik "I Want My Buyback Back" demnächst das Potential hat täglich für "Betroffenheit" zu sorgen.....

Since the third quarter of fiscal 2005, when our repurchase plan was first approved, we have repurchased approximately 41.4 million of our common shares at a total cost of $4.9 billion pursuant to the program. As of November 28, 2008, we had approximately 123.6 million common shares outstanding.

> You do the math........ My calculator shows something close to $ 117........ To put things into perspective......Todays marketcap is just 4.5 billion........

> Wer nachrechnen möchte dürfte wie ich auf ne Summe nahe von 117 $ kommen...... Um das ganze besser ins Verhältnis zu setzen sollte man wissen das die Marktkapitalisierung heute knapp 4,5 Mrd $ beträgt......

[Chart]

> More "healthy" news from the latest Sears release

> Mehr "gesunde" Details der letzten Sears Veröffentlichung.......

During the first three quarters of 2008, significant uses of cash included share repurchases of $558 million (as discussed further below), capital expenditures of $395 million, pension contributions of $204 million, net long-term debt repayments of $196 million and payments on commercial paper borrowings of $129 million. These amounts were offset by a $1.9 billion increase in short-term borrowings, primarily through borrowing on our $4 billion credit facility. Had $94 million of our short-term investment in The Reserve Primary Fund been available short-term borrowings would have increased by $1.8 billion.

Our domestic comparable store sales declined 8.7% during the month of November 2008. This decline includes a decline in comparable store sales of 7.8% at Sears Domestic and 10.0% at Kmart. The month of November 2008 includes two days of the holiday shopping season compared to the month of November 2007 which included nine days due to a one-week shift in the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors has approved the repurchase of up to an additional $500 million of the Company's common shares. This authorization is in addition to the $72 million worth of shares that currently remain available for repurchase under the Company's existing repurchase program

Bruce Johnson ( probably the 3rd ceo/cfo since Lampert took over / der gefühlte 3. oder 4. CEO/CFO seit Lampert das Zepter übernommen hat ) commented, "
After careful consideration and a review of the company's valuation, prospects, cash flow and liquidity, we believe that our shares represent an attractive investment for our shareholders
Given the difficult retail environment and its effect on our free cash flow, we have reduced our rate of repurchases throughout 2008 as we worked to retain flexibility to pursue opportunities and address contingencies. With significant assets and cash flow, we believe Sears Holdings has the flexibility to continue to invest in our business, repay debt, and consider acquisitions opportunities as well."

Have heard similar "wisdoms" before ( see Eddie Lampert Is Averaging Down.....)

Habe ähnliche Weisheiten schon zuvor gehört ( siehe Eddie Lampert Is Averaging Down..... )

March 2007
We allocate capital to initiatives that we believe will provide the greatest returns and create the most value for our shareholders. 2006 was no different, as we deployed capital to repurchase shares,......., as follows: $816 million used for share repurchases (we repurchased over 6 million shares in the year at an average price of about $133 per share);
> Definitley a new quality of the phrase " provide greatest return & most value for shareholders".........

> Definitiv ein neue ganz neue Bedeutung der Begriffe "greatest return & sharholdervalue"....

August 2007
The company repurchased 9.6 million of its shares for a total of $1.5 billion during the second quarter ( $ 156,25 )
November 2007
We repurchased 6.7 million common shares at a total cost of $0.9billion (or $131.72 per share) under our share repurchase program duringthe third quarter of fiscal 2007
Jan 2008
During the ten weeks ended January 11, 2008, we repurchased 4.9 million common shares at a total cost of $513 million (or $105.46 per share) under our share repurchase program.
> Too bad that Sears isn´t important enough for a bailout......... :-)

> Zu dumm das Sears für einen Bailout zu unbedeutend ist......... :-)

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Monday, December 1, 2008

More Wisdoms From Hank Paulson

Almost impossible to track all of his flip flopping and nonsense........But as long as they can still find enough foreign buyers to finance this "brilliant" piece of thinking....... Unfortunately it seems that Bernanke and the Fed has a similar kind of thinking...... Start the helicopters........

Fast unmöglich mit all seine ganzen "Wesiheiten" schrittzuhalten..... Aber solange die USA es immer noch schaffen diese "brilliante" Sichtweise zu finanzieren....... Dummerweise hat Bernanke und die Fed anscheinend eine ähnliche Sichtweise...... Zeit die Helikopter zu starten......


Bertrand Benoit FT - To the German radio presenter, the real news about the measures announced by Washington on Tuesday to jolt banks into lending again was not so much the astronomical costs, but a little-noticed comment in Hank Paulson’s statement.

“Millions of Americans,” croaked the US Treasury secretary, were being denied credit or facing rising credit card rates, “making it more expensive for families to finance everyday purchases”.

The notion that families should finance everyday purchases on credit, the anchor commented, “suggests Washington has still to understand what brought us there in the first place”.

> AMEN!

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Sunday, November 30, 2008

Number Of The Day " Percentage Of US Companies With A Junk Rating"

This at the start of a deep and long recession...... After the events of the last 3 month it is valid to wonder how much of this debt will get bailed out ( GM....) or will end up without much disclosure on the Fed´s balance sheet......I wonder how many companies are now on the brink of bankruptcy just because they decided to make big debt financed stock buybacks or megalomaniac takeovers & buyouts......

Diese Zahl bereits am Anfang einer schweren und langwierigen Rezession bedeutet nichts Gutes..... Nach den Ereignissen der letzten 3 Monate darf man wohl berechtigt fragen wieviel von diesem Junk entweder ein Bailout ( GM.... ) bekommen wird oder gar ohne großartige Transparenz in der immer weiter explosionsartig wachsenden Fed Bilanz verschwinden wird..... Tragischerweise befinden sich etliche dieser Unternehmen nur dank massiver schuldenfinanzierter Aktienrückkaufprogramme und größenwahnsinniger schuldenfinanzierter Übernahmen ( denke vor allem an Private Equity aber leider auch an den Fall Siemens VDO, Conti, Schaeffler ) in dieser wohl letzlich "tödlichen" Situation.......


WSJ Junk-Bond Market Has Closed the Door
Yields Upward of 20% Make It Too Pricey for Borrowers; Zero Deals Made It in November


About 50% of U.S. companies have below-investment-grade credit ratings, making the $750 billion junk-bond market a vital source of financing for car makers, airlines, retailers, utilities, restaurant chains and media companies

>The next chart is making things even scarier........ Within the "junk" label the remaining "quality" has deterioting fast and furious especially over the past few years..........

> Der nächste Chart macht alles nur noch erschreckender...... Innerhalb des "Junkuniversums" hat sich zudem die Qulität besonders im Laufe der letzten jahre massiv verschlechtert......

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Thursday, November 27, 2008

Chinese "Shocker" From Home Improvement Retailer Kingfisher

No major news but similar stories are popping up now on a daily basis and are a clear sign that something is brewing in China....... Add this story from the NYT to the mix and combine this with the following image ........ No wonder the Communist Party is very busy ( slashing rates & reserve requirements, stimulus plans, stop the YUAN appreciation, elimination or reducing export tariffs , etc ...... )

Die Meldung für sich genommen ist nicht sonderlich spektakulär. Da man aber momentan fast tagtäglich mit ähnlich lautenden Meldungen aus dem einstigen Hoffnungsträger konfrontiert wird, kann man es wohl als Zeichen sehen das sich irgendetwas ernsthaftes in China zusammenbraut...... Passend hierzu auch der sehr anschauliche Bericht der NYT. Wenn man die aktuelle Nachrichtenlage nun mit der nachfolgenden Illustration kombiniert....... Kein Wunder das die Kommunistische Partei sich in letzter Zeit hyperaktiv zeigt ( radikale Senkung der Zinssätze sowie der Mindestreservesätze, ein nicht gerade kleines Konjunkturpaket, Aussetzung der YUAN Aufwertung, Streichung oder Reduzierung von Exportzöllen usw.......... )

UPDATE: Chinese official warns on downturn via FT Alphaville

The downturn in the Chinese economy accelerated over the past month and could lead to high unemployment and social unrest, the country’s top economic planner warned on Thursday.

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Kingfisher Plc, Europe's largest home-improvement retailer, fell in London trading after reporting a wider loss and tumbling sales in China, one of the overseas markets it counts on as U.K. demand withers.

Slowing demand in China is ``likely to be weaker and last longer than previously anticipated,'' the London-based company said today, as fewer consumers buy new apartments and seek out homewares. The retailer, which reported third-quarter results today, said confidence was ``shaken'' in all its markets.

The Chinese unit reported a loss of 17 million pounds ($26 million) and sales fell 28.7 percent.
Kingfisher

The Chinese market continued to deteriorate and new apartment sales were again significantly down. The property slowdown has particularly impacted &Q’s business as half its sales were generated from internal design and fit out of new apartments.
The Chinese loss is a ``shocker,'' offsets better-than- expected results in Europe and is ``forcing a reassessment of how major a restructuring could be required,'' Investec analyst David Jeary wrote in a note. He rates Kingfisher ``sell.''

The retailer was the first international home-improvement chain to enter China, where it has about 60 stores
. Revenue there had been falling since last year after the government raised home-deposit requirements to curb speculation. Since July, China has had to shift its focus from containing inflation to sustaining growth as the global economic slowdown spreads.

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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

No Limit Specified........

Lets hope they still can find enough buyers of their treasuries ( see Who Will Be Left To Buy US Treasuries...... & China Slashes Lending Rate to Support Slowing Economy ) to finance their daily bailout ( see Breakdown of the Bailout Rescue Efforts & Various Fed Lending Facilities ) with a yield close to 3% .... The bigger issue down the road could be that the "investors" are demanding bonds that are not $ denominated......Got Gold.....?

Bleibt zu hoffen das die USA es weiterhin schaffen genügend "smarte" Investoren finden ( siehe auch Who Will Be Left To Buy US Treasuries...... & China Slashes Lending Rate to Support Slowing Economy ) die bereit sind dies täglichen Bailouts ( siehe Breakdown of the Bailout Rescue Efforts & Various Fed Lending Facilities ) für 3% in US Währung zu finanzieren..... Die US sollten sich schon einmal entfernt darauf gefasst machen das es in naher Zukunft bald Investoren gibt die keine US Anleihen auf $ Basis mehr abnehmen wollen.......Got Gold...? UPDATE: Netter Bericht der FTD 700 Milliarden? Ha! Es sind 8500 Milliarden

WSJ

[rescue chart]

An even better graph is coming from the NYT

Eine noch besser Übersicht liefert die NYT

bigger / größer

Barry Ritholtz has much more and slightly different data ( but what are a few trillions here and there these days ) and the quote of the day......

Barry Ritholtz hat noch mehr und leicht abweicdhende Daten ( aber was sind heutztage einige Billionen unter Freunden ) zu diesem Thema und ein Zitat das wohl mehr als alles andere die Ausmaße der aktuellen Bailouts beschreibt......

The only single American event in history that even comes close to matching the cost of the credit crisis is World War II: Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillion

The $4.6165 trillion dollars committed so far is about a trillion dollars ($979 billion dollars) greater than the entire cost of World War II borne by the United States: $3.6 trillion, adjusted for inflation (original cost was $288 billion).

Go figure: WWII was a relative bargain.

No wonder the CDS on US Debt are "moving"........ Via FT Alphaville


Kein Wunder das die Absicherung gegen einen möglichen US Bakrott langsam in "Bewegung" kommen..... Dank an FT Alphaville

USA CDS

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Sunday, November 23, 2008

U.S. Agrees To Citigroup Bailout

What a start to a week..... I´m running out of words .... Just a few points...... Reminds me of the UBS bailout ( see UBS Transferring $60 Billion in Dud Assets to Swiss National Bank, Raises $5.3 Billion ).....On top of this it is looking more and more like John Hempton was spot on (make sure you read his theory) .....Hat tip Naked Capitalism.... After the structure & terms of this bailout it will almost be impossible to deny any other enquiries ( GM...... )...... UPDATE: Official Term Sheet is out and has some slightly different numbers & details or read the Summary via FT Alphaville



Da mir anhand der tagtäglichen Ungeheuerlichkeiten bald die Worte fehlen möchte ich lediglich sagen das hier wohl Anleihen aus der Schweiz übernommen worden sind ( siehe UBS Transferring $60 Billion in Dud Assets to Swiss National Bank, Raises $5.3 Billion ).... Zudem empfehle ich dringend nachfolgenden Link von John Hempton zu lesen.... Was zum Zeitpunkt des Postings für viele noch ungeheuerlich erschien ist rückblickend fast als genial zu bezeichnen...... Beide Male geht der Dank an Naked Capitalism ... Die Struktur sowie die Bedingungen diese Bailouts achen es unmöglich überhaupt noch eine Anfrage weiterer Bailouts abzulehnen ( GM.... )..... UPDATE: Das offizielle Memo ist veröffentlicht und beinhaltet einige kleine Abweichungen hinsichtlich Summen und Bedingungen. Eine nette Zusammenfassung gibt es von FT Alphaville



WSJ Billions in Toxic Assets May Be Removed; New Phase for Government Bank Rescue

WASHINGTON – The federal government agreed Sunday to take unprecedented steps to stabilize Citigroup Inc. by moving to guarantee close to $300 billion in troubled assets weighing on the bank's books, according to people familiar with details of the plan.

Treasury has agreed to inject an additional $20 billion in capital into Citigroup under terms of the deal hashed out between the bank, the treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Treasury officials will charge a higher interest rate for the capital injection -- 8% for the first few years
-- than it has charged to dozens of other banks now borrowing money under the government's the $700 billion rescue package approved by Congress last month.

In addition to the capital, Citigroup will have an extremely unusual arrangement in which the government agrees to backstop a roughly $300 billion pool of its assets, containing mortgage-backed securities among other things. Citigroup must absorb the first $37 billion to $40 billion in losses from these assets. If losses extend beyond that level, Treasury will absorb the next $5 billion in losses, followed by the FDIC taking on the next $10 billion in losses. Any losses on these assets beyond that level would be taken by the Fed.

Citigroup would also agree to work to modify -- if possible -- troubled mortgages held in the $300 billion pool, using standards created by the FDIC after the collapse of IndyMac Bank.



The government is not expected to require any management changes, as that was seen as potentially being too destabilizing.

Under terms of the agreement, the Treasury Department and FDIC will guarantee $306 billion of Citigroup loans and securities backed by residential and commercial real estate and other assets, which will remain on the bank's balance sheet. Citigroup will absorb the first $29 billion of losses, with the government stepping in after that as "protection against the possibility of unusually large losses."



> Make sure you read Citi of over-leveraging to put Citi´s loss absorbtion into perpective.......



> Empfehle einen Blick auf Citi of over-leveraging um zu erkennen das die Verlustsumme der Citi ein einziger Witz ist.....



Among the conditions that Citigroup agreed to is "an executive compensation plan, including bonuses, that rewards long-term performance and profitability, with appropriate limitations," according to the Treasury Department. Details on the company's compensation "must be submitted to, and approved by" the government. .....



The plan would essentially put the government in the position of insuring a slice of Citigroup's balance sheet.



Another possibility on the table was the creation of what is sometimes called a "bad bank" -- an outside entity designed to hold some of a financial firm's worst assets. That structure would help Citigroup cleanse itself of billions of dollars in weak assets, these people said.



In either case, taxpayers could be on the hook if Citigroup's massive portfolios of mortgage, credit cards, commercial real-estate and big corporate loans continue to sour.



It was unclear Sunday night whether the government would take an additional equity stake in Citigroup in return for the support. Citigroup previously agreed to issue the government preferred shares in return for the $25 billion the bank received as one of the first nine companies to get capital infusions.



If the government sets up the bad-bank structure, the amount of financial support will be a key variable. If there is too little, investors might conclude that the bad assets will wipe it out, leaving the bank right where it was before.



In addition to $2 trillion in assets Citigroup has on its balance sheet, it has another $1.23 trillion in entities that aren't reflected there. Some of those assets are tied to mortgages, and investors have worried they could cause heavy losses if they are brought back on the company's books.
One rescue structure under consideration would resemble aspects of the $150 billion bailout plan the government struck with American International Group Inc. in November. Two vehicles, funded largely by as much as $52.5 billion in government money, were created to take on risks from some of AIG's souring assets, including exposure to credit derivatives. That deal also reduced interest costs on AIG's previously arranged $60 billion loan from the government.



In Citigroup's case, the government's arrangement likely will be able to accommodate only a sliver of the company's more than $3 trillion in assets, including its holdings in off-balance-sheet entities. Jitters about such "hidden" assets helped trigger the nose-dive in Citigroup's stock last week. Among the off-balance-sheet assets are $667 billion in mortgage-related securities.



Citigroup has tried repeatedly to rid itself of its exposure to those assets. In late September, the company reached an agreement for a government-financed acquisition of Wachovia Corp. Under that planned deal, Citigroup and the government were going to divvy up the losses on $312 billion of assets, with Citigroup absorbing the first $30 billion in losses and the government shouldering the remainder.



Citigroup described that arrangement as intended to insulate it from Wachovia's risky mortgage assets. But Citigroup also would have been able to unload some of its own assets, according to people familiar with the matter.



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Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Chart Of The Day "Junk Yields"

Despite the rollercoaster ride in stocks the action in the bond & debtmarket is even more fascinating....... The main driver of equities for the next few years will be the quality of the balance sheet ( especially after goodwill....) and the timetable for the refinancing of the maturing debt/bonds..... Earnings will be a second-tier issue..... Bondholders will be in the driver seat........ No more attempts to "return value to shareholders" like shown from Daimler ( see How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... )..... Needless to say they are also now begging for some kind of bailout.......

Trotz des tagtäglichen Wahnsinns an den Aktienmärkten spielt sich noch sagenhafteres an den Kredit & Anleihemärkten ab. Denke das in den nächten Jahren wie bereits mehrfach erwähnt vorrangig die Bilanzqualität ( vor allem nach den kommenden Goodwillabschreibungen, da versteckt sich noch so manche Bombe....siehe Die nächste Bilanzbombe tickt FTD, besonders interessant wenn mal wieder auf die niedrige Buchwertbewertung der DAXtitel hingewiesen wird .... Got Gold......) sowie die Zeitachse der kommenden Refinanzierungen der ausstehen Anleihen/Kredite die erste Geige für die Aktienkursentwicklung spielen wird. Die Gewinne ( oder besser ausgedrückt Verluste ) rücken da eindeutig in den Hintergrund. Die Bondholder werden zukünftig das sagen haben..... Immerhin bleibt uns dann der Wahnsinn der schuldenfinanzierten Aktienrückkäufe erspart ( das passiert wenn der Vorstand sich mit Haut und Haaren dem kurzfristigen "shareholder value" & seinen Aktienoptionen verschrieben hat.....Betonung liegt hier auf kurzfristig ... Fragt mal bei Daimler nach... siehe How Daimler Wasted € 7 Billion On Buybacks In Just 15 Months...... )


WSJ

Unrelenting declines in corporate "junk" bonds have pushed yields on these riskier securities to over 20% on average, a record

Bespoke

Based on data from Merrill Lynch, high yield bonds are yielding nearly 1,800 basis points more than comparable Treasuries. In the last month alone, spreads have risen by more than 200 basis points, and since bottoming in the Summer of 2007 at 241 basis points, they are up 645%. To put this in perspective, with the 10-Year US Treasury now yielding 3.4%, a high-yield borrower would need to pay roughly 21.4% per year to take out a ten-year loan. With terms like these, who needs loan sharks?

Much more insight via Naked Cpitalism Junk Bond Yields Up Sharply. On top of this visit FT Alphaville for an even more "impressive" chart on CDS ( see iTraxx Europe at all time high ). Combine all this with this chart and is not difficult to imagine that the worst is still to come.....

Mehr Details mal wieder von Naked Capitalism Junk Bond Yields Up Sharply . Einen noch beeindruckenderen Chart der CDS bietet FT Alphaville ( siehe iTraxx Europe at all time high ). Wenn man nun das Drama mit diesem Chart kombiniert ist unschwer zu erkennen das uns "ruppige" Zeiten ins Haus stehen......

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Mad Cow Disease "Solarworld Edition"......

Wow. I´m not kidding and have double-checked the date ( no it´s not "Fools Day".... ) & the companies website ( no english link available yet UPDATE: See text from the report further down .......). Solarworld, one of the largest solar companies with one of the strongest balance sheets wants to take over all German facilities from Opel ( GM’s Opel May Need EU1.8 Billion Guarantee ) that is on the brink of going under when GM won´t get the bailout. The US equivilant would be that First Solar (FSLR) wants to take over Ford........They want to waste their € 250 mio in cash and their € 750 mio in credit lines (conditional to a guarantee from Germany). On top of this they are demanding a compensation from GM for the 40.000 workers totalling € 1 billion .....Goal is to create the first "green automobilcompany in Europe".......

Either the prospects for solar in general must be disastrous, hackers have entered the site or the CEO is heavily on drugs...... Wonder why the stock is only down 15 percent.... If you want to know more about the "Mad Company" visit Solarworld

Entweder die Seite ist von Hackern geentert worden, die Aussichten für die Solarbranche sind unterirdisch oder der CEO ist übelst auf DROGE......... Es grenzt an ein Wunder das die Aktie nur 15% nachgibt...... Schon erstaunlich wie man mit einer einzigen Meldung die bisher doch recht ansehliche Reputation die über Jahre hinweg erarbeitet worden ist zerschmettern kann.....

Solarworld Reconstruction to Green Automotive Group

SolarWorld AG is planning to submit an offer to the US car maker GeneralMotors (GM) to take over the four German factories and the Rüsselsheimdevelopment center of Adam Opel GmbH. To this end SolarWorld AG can makeavailable cash funds amounting to 250 million EUR and bank credit linesworth 750 million EUR under the proviso that the federal governmentprovides a guarantee.

The SolarWorld Group which has so far beenexclusively involved in solar power technology would subsequently develop Opel into the first 'green' European automotive group. A core prerequisitefor the submission of the offer is the complete separation of Opel from theGM Group and a compensation payment of 40,000 EUR per German job (totaling1 billion EUR).

At the four German Opel locations it is the idea of SolarWorld AG tocontinue the sustainable further development of the current successfulmodel ranges and, additionally, to produce a new generation of vehicleswith energy-efficient, low-emission drives in the future.


Solarworld Umbau zum grünen Automobilkonzern

Die SolarWorld AG plant dem US-amerikanischen Automobilkonzern General
Motors (GM) das Angebot zu unterbreiten, die vier deutschen Werke und das
Entwicklungszentrum in Rüsselsheim der Adam Opel GmbH zu übernehmen.

Dafür kann die SolarWorld AG Opel Barmittel in Höhe von 250 Mio. Euro und Banklinien von 750 Mio. Euro vorbehaltlich einer Bundesbürgschaft bereitstellen. Der bisher ausschließlich in der Solartechnologie aktive Konzern würde damit Opel zum ersten 'grünen' europäischen Autokonzern weiterentwickeln. Kernvoraussetzung für die Abgabe des Angebotes zur Übernahme ist die komplette Trennung aus dem GM-Konzern und eine Kompensationszahlung von 40.000 Euro pro deutschem Arbeitsplatz (insgesamt 1 Mrd. Euro).

An den vier deutschen Opel-Standorten soll nach Vorstellung der SolarWorld AG künftig neben der nachhaltigen Weiterentwicklung der erfolgreichen Baureihen eine neue Fahrzeuggeneration mit energieeffizienten und emissionsarmen Antrieben produziert werden. Das europäische Entwicklungszentrum in Rüsselsheim arbeitet bereits an Lösungen für
zukunftsfähige Elektrofahrzeuge wie dem 'Volt'. Mit dem Umbau der Produktpalette würde der traditionsreiche deutsche Autobauer künftig insbesondere Elektro- und Hybridfahrzeuge und Typen neuester Technologie wie extended-range Elektrofahrzeuge anbieten, die Elektro- und Verbrennungsmotor hocheffizient kombinieren.

> I´m still not sure which photo is showing the CEO....... :-)

> Bin mir immer noch nicht sicher auf welchem Bild der CEO abgebildet ist... :-)

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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Bird & Fortune : Silly Money

Thanks from Germany to Hedge Fund Post for digging out this piece of brilliance. Enjoy! Make sure you don´t miss the end of part 2......

Herzlichen Dank an Hedge Fund Post! Einfach nur genial! Verpasst bitte nicht das Ende von Part 2......

Part 1


Part 2


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Sunday, November 16, 2008

Gaming The TARP "Pay $10m, get $3.4bn of funding?"

That is what is happening when you have opened Pandorras Box...... You really cannot blame Hartford for using all the loopholes......

Das passiert folgerichtig wenn man einmal damit angefangen hat Pandorras Box in Form von Markteingriffen auf Wochenbasis zu öffnen..... Ich zumindest mache Hartford nicht den geringsten Vorwurf all die Schlupflöcher zu Lasten der Steuerzahler zu nutzen..... Aus deutscher Sicht besonders erfreulich da sich hier abzeichnet das die Beteiligung der Allianz jetzt doch nicht ganz so schnell gegen Null tendiert ( siehe Postingende )......

Corporate Welfare by R.J. Matson Barry Ritholtz

FT Alphaville

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) — Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. said it’s buying a Florida bank [Federal Trust Bank] for $10 million so the insurer can be eligible for the Treasury rescue program.

Hartford, based in the Connecticut city of the same name, expects to qualify for $1.1 billion to $3.4 billion under Treasury guidelines, the company said in a statement distributed today by Business Wire.
What blatant abuse. From the the statement:

“We are taking these actions as a strong and well-capitalized financial institution looking for maximum flexibility and stability,” said Ramani Ayer, The Hartford’s chairman and chief executive officer. “Securing capital at the terms available through the Capital Purchase Program could be a prudent course in this market environment and would allow us to further supplement our existing capital resources.”
(Translation: Pay $10m, get $3.4bn of funding? Where do we sign?)

> Here are the terms of the Allianz capital investment just 4 weeks ago......

> Nachfolgend die Bedingungen zu denen die Allianz noch vor 4 Wochen Kapital zur Verfügung gestellt hat.....

The Hartford Closes On $2.5 Billion Investment From Allianz SE

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: HIG) today announced the closing of a $2.5 billion capital investment by Allianz SE.

Under the agreement, Allianz has purchased, at $31 per share ( Stock Friday $ 12,65 ), $750 million of preferred shares convertible to common stock after receipt of applicable approvals, and $1.75 billion of 10% junior subordinated debentures.

The debentures are callable by The Hartford at par beginning ten years after issuance. Allianz SE also received warrants which entitle it to purchase $1.75 billion of common stock at an exercise price of $25.32 per share, subject to shareholder approvals. The warrants expire in seven years. The Hartford had announced the deal on October 6.

I want to close this post with a quote from the WSJ that isn´t quite "promising".....

Am besten beendet man dieses Posting mit einem Zitat aus dem WSJ das einen nicht gerade hoffnungsvoll in die ZUkunft schauen lässt......

Congress: Treasury Messed Up the Bailout. Let’s Give it More Power.

So says Congress: Treasury has done a terrible job of managing the bailout. That’s why Treasury should get expanded authority — for instance, to approve bank mergers.

Such paradoxical statements make perfect sense to some Congressional leaders, including New York Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Debt Pile Looming Over European Firms

I´ll bet that some will damm their debt financed aquisitions & stock buybacks ( for some "amusing" examples see "I Want My Buyback Back" ) ........ I assume that during the coming at least 2 years it won´t be the earnings that will dominate the stockprice .... It will be all about the balance sheet....... The management will be forced from a shareholder value oriented mood to "serve" their new masters aka the bondholders.......



Kann mir gut vostellen das einige inzwischen Ihre schuldenfinanzierten Übernahmewahn & die Aktienrückkäufe bereuen ( einige "amüsante" Beispiele gibt es hier zu bewundern "I Want My Buyback Back" ) ...... Bin mir ziemlich sicher das zumindest auf Sicht von 2 Jahren weniger die Gewinnsituation als die Bilanzqualität das beherrschende Thema der Aktienmärkte sein werden..... Das Management wird zukünftig nicht mehr die Aktionäre sondern die Bondholder in den Mittelpunkt Ihrer "Bemühungen" stellen......



[eu debt]

> The trouble is getting even greater when you combine the graph with the
spread charts via Mish



> Wie prekär die momentane Lage ist zeigt mehr als eindrucksvoll wenn man die o.g. Grafik mit den nachvolgenden Charts kombiniert Unternehmensanleihen auf Tauchstation via Zeitenwende/Mish



WSJ European companies, already in the middle of an economic downturn, face another uphill struggle as they seek to refinance $242.6 billion of maturing debt over the coming year, according to credit-ratings firm Standard & Poor's.



"Funding pressures in Europe have escalated sharply since September as stress in the global financial system accelerated," the report said.



According to the report, European companies will be forced to pay back or refinance $586.3 billion through 2011, with more than 40% of that debt coming due over the next year.

French nonfinancial corporate issuers account for the largest portion of debt to be refinanced, with 26%, followed closely by the U.K., Germany, Netherlands and Italy, which have a combined share of 79%.



No company rated below single-A has managed to access the bond market in recent months, offering little hope for companies further down the ratings scale

The report examined all debts rated by S&P including bank loans, notes and bonds.

>The banks will have to pray that the companies manage the refinancing of the debt... Otherwise they are forced to tapp corporate bank lines .....

> Die Banken dürften bereits jetzt anfangen zu beten das es möglich sein wird diese fälligen Anleihen zu refinanzieren...... Ansonsten bleibt den Firmen nichts anderes übrig als die bestehenden Kreditlinien der Banken anzuzapfen...... Sicher nicht der glücklichste Umstand wenn nahezu alle Banken dringend auf Ihre Kapitalstärke achten müssen......

Credit terms increasingly tied to risk FT Alphaville - US and European companies renewing short-term credit facilities are being forced to accept terms that link interest payments to their creditworthiness. In recent months, AT&T, Wal-Mart, Caterpillar, Halliburton, Nokia and Novartis have all renewed their short-term financing arrangements, including revolving credit facilities, and found that “relationship pricing” is no longer available. Instead,

companies are finding that banks - which had offered cheap loans to top corporate clients - now price these facilities based on measures of credit risk. In most cases, credit default swaps are being used.

The first deal for this new type of pricing for revolving loans, totalling an estimated $6,000bn worldwide, was done in April

Since then, such terms have become widely used. Banks hope this will discourage companies from tapping these credit lines unless they absolutely need to. Already, at least 20 such deals for 364-day revolving credit facilities – a type of overdraft for companies to ensure access to funds in case markets shut down – have been completed and at least as many are in the pipeline.

Update via Bloomberg Borse Dubai May Refinance $4.2 Billion of Loans at Higher Costs

Borse Dubai Ltd., the Gulf emirate's state-owned operator of exchanges, is in talks to refinance $4.2 billion of loans at interest rates tied to the price of credit- default swaps, raising the cost of the debt, said three bankers with knowledge of the transaction.

The new debt may pay interest of as much as 6 percentage points over the London interbank offered rate on loans for three years, said the bankers, who declined to be named because the negotiations are private. That compares with a margin of 1.1 percentage points on the existing loans, which were used to buy Sweden's OMX AB last year



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Sunday, November 9, 2008

Who Will Be Left To Buy US Treasuries......

I think this will be one of the most important questions especially after one "natural" buyer after another buyer like China is obviously has to spend lots of their "war chest" at home ( see this excellent piece via naked Capitalism China Announced $586 Billion Stimulus Plan, No Kidding.... Dubai May Need Help To Repay Debt.... & You can’t even depend on the SWFs).....

Ich denke eine der entscheidenden Fragen in naher Zukunft wird sein ob es den USA weiterhin gelingt genügend ausländisches Kapital zu animieren wöchentlich wachsenden Baliouts (AIG, GM, ..... ) und die gefühlten quartalsweisen "Konjunkturpakete" zu finanzieren ( ganz zu schweigen von dem üblichen Defizit.....). Es sieht immer mehr so aus als wenn etliche der bisherigen "natürlichen" Käufer immer mehr Mittel aufwenden müssen um Ihre eigenen Wirtschaft vor einer ( nennen wir es vorsichtig ) Verlangsamung zu retten ( siehe via Naked Capitalism China Announced $586 Billion Stimulus Plan, No Kidding.... Dubai May Need Help To Repay Debt.... & You can’t even depend on the SWFs).....


In the meantime the US is anouncing one baliout a week ( AIG, GM, ..... ) and is discussing another stimulus package almost on a quarterly basis...... On top of this the Fed is close to a zero interest policy and the recent strength in the $ is likely mainly atrributet to the global delevereging..... Probably not the best circumstamces to attract trillions of foreign capital.... Especially when your futue liabilities are close to $ 50 trillion ( see If we are Rome, Wall Street's our Coliseum make sure you don´t miss the Colbert video with the former comptroller Walker )

Es bedarf schon einer gewissen US Arroganz darauf zu wetten das die Ausländer trotz einer Nullzinspolitik, einer Währung die wohl einen nicht geringen Teil Ihrer letzten Stärke allein dem Umstand des weltweiten Deleverering zu verdanken hat, neuen Haushaltslöchern beinahe im Stundentakt sowie der über allem stehenden tickenden Zeitbombe von Social Security & Pensionszusagen etc ( mit nahezu 50 Billion $ , siehe If we are Rome, Wall Street's our Coliseum , besonders empfehlensert ist das Interview mit dem früheren Oberaufseher der US Finanzen.....) weiterhin gewillt und in der Lage sein werden dieses zu finanzieren.....

I don´t want to speculate what could happen if the foreigners have to sell some of their US assets...... Got gold......?

In allen Überlegungen möchte ich leiber nicht damit anfangen zu spekulieren was passieren könnte sollten die Ausländer anfagen aktiv Ihre Positionen zu veräußern...... Got Gold.... ?


Thanks to Contrary Investor

Needless to say that US debt is still rated AAA.......

Überflüssig zu erwähnen das die US Staatsschulden noch immer mit AAA bewertet werden......

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