How Not To Restore Credibility..... "BOE´s Adam Posen Edition"

The fact that he is also an American economist & has co-written a book on inflation targeting with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke might explain at least in part his quote...... ;-)

Man muss zu seiner "Verteidigung" erwähnen das er laut Wikipedia ebenfalls ein amerikanischer Ökonom ist. Da verwundert es wenig das er zusammen mit Bernanke Co-Autor eines Werkes zum Thema Inflation ist.... Dies relativiert zumindest ein wenig den fast satirisch anmutenden Charakter seines Zitates....;-)

"CPI, excluding currency, commodities and VAT impact, is low"

The quote came in response after CPI once more "slightly" missed the 2 percent target....... Sometimes it´s better to stay just silent.....

Diese Aussage kam nachdem im Dezember die Konumentenpreisinflation in UK mal wieder "knapp" das angestrebte Ziel von 2% verfehlt hat........ Ähnlich wie bei etlichen "Offiziellen" scheint das Sprichwort "Reden ist Silber, Schweigen ist Gold" nicht sonderlich viele Anhänger zu haben....

Record-breaking, forecast-busting UK inflation FT Alphaville

Highest yy rate for CPI food and non-alcoholic beverages since May 2009
Highest yy rate for CPI housing, utilities component since Aug 2009
Highest yy rate for CPI goods component since April 2010
Highest yy rate for CPI services component since Aug 2010 -
Highest yy rate for CPI fuels and lubricants component since July 2010

Posen is almost as funny as ECB´s Smaghi with his "joke" "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark" ..... But in comparison with Bernanke & Greenspan even they seem "reasonable".... ;-)

Finde trotzdem das im Fach "Realsatire" die EZB dank Bini Smaghi mit der Behauptung das der "€ stabiler als die DM ist" noch immer knapp den zweiten Platz hinter den unangefochtenen Spitzenreitern Bernanke & Greenspan einnimmt.....

Now take a look at real rates ( base rates minus CPI ) in the UK......

Der nachfolgende Chart zeigt den "realen Zinssatz" in UK verglichen mit dem Letzins und ich empfehle jedem drigend den treffenden Kommentar (!) der FT Deutschland zu diesem Thema zu lesen.....

UPDATE: The Real 10-Year Rates Chart confirms the "vigilance" of the the BOE ....

UPDATE: Der Chart der realen 10 Jahresrenditen bestätigt welch "Sonderstellung" die BOE einnimmt....

This in combination with the next chart showing the printing that the BOE has done so far & the remarks from the end of September doesn´t make Posen´s quote less "cynical".......

Das im Zusammenhang mit dem nächsten Chart, der zeigt das selbst die Fed in Relation zur BOE "zurückhaltend" agiert, sowie den Aussagen Ende September lassen das Zitat nicht gerade weniger "zynisch" erscheinen.....

H/ T RBS via FT Alphaville

Posen Makes BOE ‘Prosecution’ Case for More Stimulus September 29, Bloomberg

Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen made the strongest call yet for the bank to restart its asset-purchase program.

“Additional monetary stimulus at this point should begin in the form of additional QE as the Bank of England pursued by purchasing gilts in 2009-2010,” he said. “In case such QE were to prove insufficiently effective,” Posen said he would “still want preparation ahead of a Plan B of large-scale non-gilt asset purchases” in close coordination with the Treasury.

Posen, 43, an American citizen, joined the central bank from the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. A co-writer of a book on inflation targeting with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, he also published a study of the Japanese financial crisis and was a researcher at the Bundesbank and European Central Bank.

Wouldn´t surprise me if down the road even politicians will be more popular than members of the BOE & when the term "central banksters" will gain more and more traction....

Ich persönlich wäre nicht überrascht wenn zumindest in UK die Notenbänker in absehbarer Zeit noch unbeliebter als Politiker unterwegs sind.....

UPDATE:

Searching for BoE credibility on inflation FT Alphaville

From Deutsche Bank, the number of news stories that match three topical words:

SCHADENFREUDE........ ;-)

A Crisis of Faith in Britain’s Central Banker NYT

A central banker need not be loved, but at the least he should command respect — and in Britain these days Mervyn King cannot count on either.

The pre-emptive UK rate hike FT Akphaville

…over the last 6 years (ie 2005Q1 to 2010 Q4), real GDP growth has undershot the MPC’s forecast made a year earlier in 22 quarters and overshot in just 2 quarters. Conversely, inflation has overshot the MPC’s forecast in 20 quarters and undershot in just 4 quarters.

Quotes Albert Edwards, Bill Buckler, Alan Greenspan,William Buiter, Mr Mantega ( Brazil’s Finance Minister ), Ben Davies & Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Cannot believe that i´m quoting Greenspan without making the usual jokes about his "wisdom"......... ;-)

Fast unheimlich das man mal ohne Häme Greenspan zitieren kann...... ;-)

Albert Edwards via ZH

Central bankers, by pursuing policies that allowed the middle classes to borrow against rising asset prices, kept them consuming despite the stagnation of their incomes and hence disguised the effect of government policies that allowed the rich to acquire virtually all of the gains in GDP growth.

And in the process of “robbing” the middle classes and now still attempting to keep asset prices artificially high, they are also robbing our children of the ability to buy a house at an affordable price. Yet central bankers still see QE as key to maintaining the illusion of prosperity and stoking consumer spending

Bill Buckler via ZH

"Ninety-seven percent of all existing Treasury debt has been created since August 15, 1971! Ninety-three percent of it has been created since Mr Volcker “saved” the paper Dollar in late 1979! Please note that the gain in Treasuries and the loss in the US Dollar almost exactly cancel out.

Please note also that even the biggest gain in these paper markets fades into insignificance against Gold’s rise."And here is the answer all the "gold bugs" have been waiting for: "The paper money “price” of Gold will last as long as the attempt to make paper money “work” lasts. In the end, Gold will no longer have a “price” because it has reverted to its role as MONEY. Whenever and wherever that happens, that nation can return to the production of wealth - rather than “money”."

Alan Greenspan via The Reformed Broker

Mr. Greenspan replied that he’d thought a lot about gold prices over the years and decided the supply and demand explanations treating gold like other commodities “simply don’t pan out,” as Mr. Malpass characterized Mr. Greenspan. “He’d concluded that gold is simply different,” Mr. Malpass wrote. At one point Mr. Greenspan spoke of how, during World War II, the Allies going into North Africa found gold was insisted on in the payment of bribes. Said the former Fed chairman: “If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine. It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.”

William Buiter via FT Alphaville

…even the fiscally best-positioned G7 countries, Germany and Canada, face major fiscal challenges. Germany would not be able to join the Euro Area today if it were not a member already, because it fails to meet the deficit criterion (no more than 3% of GDP) and the debt criterion (no more than 60% of GDP) – in the case of the public debt to GDP ratio, by a significant and growing margin. Indeed, the aggregate Euro Area fails both criteria by wide margins, and of the 16 individual member states, only Luxembourg and Finland qualify on both criteria…

With QE 2.0 now finally on the table & spreading "competitive devaluations" ( timing wasn´t bad... see Update)around the globe i think you should give the Ludwig von Mises reference via John Hussman a second look....

Da ja nun auch endlich offiziell QE 2.0 angekündigt worden ist und weltweit ein finaler Abwertungswettlauf ( Timing hätte schlechter sein können...siehe Update )in Sachen Währungen um sich greift ( und dabei rasant an Fahrt gewinnt ) kann es nicht schaden noch einmal einen Blick auf das Ludwig von Mises Zitat via John Hussman zu werfen....

UPDATE:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph

States accounting for two-thirds of the global economy are either holding down their exchange rates by direct intervention or steering currencies lower in an attempt to shift problems on to somebody else, each with their own plausible justification. Nothing like this has been seen since the 1930s.

Brazil’s finance minister Mr Mantega via FT Alphaville

Mr Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, declared earlier this month that the Brazilian real was caught up in ‘a silent war’ in currency markets, as nations compete to speed up their economic recoveries by putting their exporters at an advantage…

Ben Davies Ft Alphaville

Within a single week 25 nations have deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history of the world. This world monetary earthquake will carry many lessons.

Got GOLD ? ;-)

Quotes Edward Hugh, John Hussman & Andy Xie

I´m taking a quick break from my "Time-Out".... With "QE 2.0 & 3.0" just around the corner & the € crises off the front pages i think the links are not "unimportant".......

Verabscheide mich nach diesen Posting wieder in die angekündigte "Auszeit".... Im Zusammenhang mit der bevorstehenden "QE Version 2.0, 3.0 usw...." sowie der "fast vergessenen" € Krise erscheinen mir die kompletten Links besonders lesenwert....

Edward Hugh

Spain’s debt for 2010 according to the EDP is expected to reach around 77% of GDP (EU Commission spring forecast), and while we feel it is still possible to agree with the IMF when they say that that “Spain’s (public) debt ratio is low compared with many other countries in Europe”, it is only possible to do so if we do not forget that if we add in the 6% that is held by the Social Security Fund, the 7% that has built up in Accounts Payable and the 5% owed by Spains Public Corporations, we end up with a total of something like 95% debt to GDP, which is, of course, above the average. And this is not to even begin to count all those impending pension liabilities.

John Hussman

My impression is that Ben Bernanke has little sense of the damage he is about to provoke. A central banker who talks about throwing money from helicopters is not only arrogant but foolish.

Nearly a century ago, the great economist Ludwig von Mises observed that massive central bank easing is invariably a form of cowardice that attempts to avoid the need to restructure debt or correct fiscal deficits, avoiding wiser but more difficult choices by instead destroying the value of the currency.

Andy Xie

When the Fed or the European Central Bank tries to stimulate, they are actually stimulating the global economy as a whole. Water, no matter where it comes from, flows downwards. Stimulus, similarly, flows to where costs are low and banking systems are healthy.

If you believe this logic, the actions of the Fed and the ECB fuel inflation and asset bubbles in emerging economies rather than stimulate growth at home.

Lots of damage has already been done...... Regarding "healthy" banking systems China has nothing to worry about... ;-)

Denke das wir bereits heute mehr als genügend Auswirkungen dieser Erkenntnis sehen können.....Immerhin hat China in Sachen "gesunden" Bankensystem nichts zu befürchten.... ;-)

Joke Of The Day From ECB´s Smaghi "€ More Stable Than Deutsche Mark"

Quotes like this totally "neglecting" the almost € 1 trillion fund to "rescue" the €, IMF involvement, first "QE aka Montizing Of Debt" ever & including the once in a lifetime "elevated" ( at least by Bundesbank standarts... ) CPI close to 4% after the reunification are not suitable to regain at least a few percentage points of the already "diminished" credibility... At least in Germany... ;-)

Wenn man Zitate wie diese lesen muß, die zum einen den fast 1 Billion € schweren Rettungsfonds, der zur Stabilisierung des € notwending gewesen ist, und den Sündefall schlechthin ( Aufkauf von Staatsanleihen ) "ausblenden" sowie gleichzeitig die im Zuge der Wiedervereinigung entstandene Sondersituation von extrem erhöhten CPI Daten von knapp 4% komplett unberücksichtigt läßt, muß sich nicht wundern wenn auch noch der kümmerliche Rest in Sachen Glaubwürdigkeit langsam aber sicher "flöten" geht..Zumindest in Deutschland....;-)

Bloomberg

The euro has proven to be a more stable currency than the Deutsche Mark in the 11 years since its introduction, the board member said in the FAZ commentary.

The average inflation rate in those 11 years is lower than in all countries in the monetary union in the 10 years before, even in Germany, Bini Smaghi said, according to the newspaper.

Sometimes it´s better to stay silent.....

"Reden ist Silber, Schweigen ist GOLD".......

Quote Of The Day..... "The Defaults Are Worth It "

Looks like i was spot on ....."the Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac pain wasn´t enough......."

Sieht ganz so aus als wenn ich nicht ganz verkehrt gelegen habe......."der Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac Schaden doch noch nicht hoch genug war....... "

U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say NYT

Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

With an insured mortgage exposure already running well over $ 600 billion & spiking higher on a daily basis one has to admit that this clown has CHUZPAH! I suggest to read the entire NYT link.... Lots of stuff that makes a GOLDBUG happy......

Wenn man sich jetzt vor Augen führt das sich die o.g. Institution bereits jetzt für über 600 Mrd $ an wackeligen Hypotheken geradesteht und tagtäglich massivst neue Garantien schreibt muß man diesem Clown zumindest zugestehen das er CHUZPAH hat.....Ich empfehle sich den folgenden Link der NYT komplett durchzulesen.....Läßt das Herz eines GOLDBUGS höher hupfen......

The HYPOCRITE himself in 2005.......



Rolfe Winkler has nailed it a few weeks ago!

Rolfe Winkler hat es bereits vor einigen Wochen treffend formuliert...

"It’s equally likely the agency will continue to be a conduit through which the Obama administration funnels cash to the housing market"

Over $600 billion of loans backed by the end of this year — many very risky due to very low downpayments — but no chief risk officer….

Especially worrysome when the Fed is the only buyer of agency debt right now......

Das ganze wird noch amüsanter wenn man bedenkt das die Fed momentan der einzige Käufer in diesem Marktsegment ist.....

More on this topic

House Hearing on FHA Capital Reserves Home Economics
Bailout watch, US Federal Housing Administration edition FT Alphaville
FHA Bailout Seen Calculated Risk
FHA: Next Bailout? NC
The Sound Of One Hand Clapping Chris Martenson

Joke Of The Day "Well Capitalized......”

Stories like this explain my "GOLD addiction"........This Cartoon from Jesse ( see "The Emporer Has No Clothes, But Who Dares To Say It" ) nails it.....

U.a. dank solcher Geschichten bin ich ein großer Anhänger von GOLD...... Dieser Cartoon von Jesse ( siehe "The Emporer Has No Clothes, But Who Dares To Say It" ) ist spot on......


Next Bubble to Burst Is Banks’ Big Loan Values: Jonathan Weil
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- It’s amazing what a little sunshine can accomplish.

Check out the footnotes to Regions Financial Corp.’s latest quarterly report, and you’ll see a remarkable disclosure. There, in an easy-to-read chart, the company divulged that the loans on its books as of June 30 were worth $22.8 billion less than what its balance sheet said. ( see Regions Form 10-K via Zero Hedge)

The Birmingham, Alabama-based bank’s shareholder equity, by comparison, was just $18.7 billion.

So, if it weren’t for the inflated loan values, Regions’ equity would be less than zero. Meanwhile, the government continues to classify Regions as “well capitalized.”

> I must admit that i´m somewhat surprised to see that John Paulson purchased 35 million shares of Regions Financial Corp. He is one of the best Hedge Fund mangers out there...

> Ich muß gestehen das ich doch sehr "überrascht" bin das ausgerechnet einer der besten Hedgefondmanger überhaupt sich ausgerechnet in diese Aktie eingekauft hat ( siehe John Paulson purchased 35 million shares of Regions Financial Corp )

While disclosures of this sort aren’t new, their frequency is. This summer’s round of interim financial reports marked the first time U.S. companies had to publish the fair market values of all their financial instruments on a quarterly basis. Before, such disclosures had been required only annually under the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rules.

The timing of the revelations is uncanny. Last month, in a move that has the banking lobby fuming, the FASB said it would proceed with a plan to expand the use of fair-value accounting for financial instruments. In short, all financial assets and most financial liabilities would have to be recorded at market values on the balance sheet each quarter, although not all fluctuations in their values would count in net income. A formal proposal could be released by year’s end.

Recognizing Loan Losses

The biggest change would be to the treatment of loans. The FASB’s current rules let lenders carry most of the loans on their books at historical cost, by labeling them as held-to- maturity or held-for-investment. Generally, this means loan losses get recognized only when management deems them probable, which may be long after they are foreseeable. Using fair-value accounting would speed up the recognition of loan losses, resulting in lower earnings and reduced book values.

While Regions may be an extreme example of inflated loan values, it’s not unique. Bank of America Corp. said its loans as of June 30 were worth $64.4 billion less than its balance sheet said. The difference represented 58 percent of the company’s Tier 1 common equity, a measure of capital used by regulators that excludes preferred stock and many intangible assets, such as goodwill accumulated through acquisitions of other companies.

Wells Fargo & Co. said the fair value of its loans was $34.3 billion less than their book value as of June 30. The bank’s Tier 1 common equity, by comparison, was $47.1 billion.

Widening Gaps

The disparities in those banks’ loan values grew as the year progressed. Bank of America said the fair-value gap in its loans was $44.6 billion as of Dec. 31. Wells Fargo’s was just $14.2 billion at the end of 2008, less than half what it was six months later. At Regions, it had been $13.2 billion.

Other lenders with large divergences in their loan values included SunTrust Banks Inc. It showed a $13.6 billion gap as of June 30, which exceeded its $11.1 billion of Tier 1 common equity. KeyCorp said its loans were worth $8.6 billion less than their book value; its Tier 1 common was just $7.1 billion.

When a loan’s market value falls, it might be that the lender would charge higher borrowing costs for the same loan today. It also could be that outsiders perceive a greater chance of default than management is assuming. Perhaps the underlying collateral has collapsed in value, even if the borrower hasn’t missed a payment.

The trend in banks’ loan values is not uniform. Twelve of the 24 companies in the KBW Bank Index, including Citigroup Inc., said their loans’ fair values were within 1 percent of their carrying amounts, more or less. Citigroup said the fair value of its loans was $601.3 billion, just $1.3 billion less than their book value. The gap had been $18.2 billion at the end of 2008.

> Unfortunately the same cannot be said about Citi’s dirty pool of assets .....

> Dummerweise gilt das bei City nicht wenn man sich die anderen Papiere ansieht ( siehe Citi’s dirty pool of assets .....

Arbitrary Accounting

If nothing else, today’s fair-value gaps highlight the arbitrariness of book values and regulatory capital. Banks already have the option to carry loans at fair value under the accounting rules. For the vast majority of loans, most banks elect not to, on the grounds that they intend to keep them until maturity and hope the cash rolls in.

Consequently, the difference between being well capitalized and woefully undercapitalized may come down to nothing more than some highly paid chief executive’s state of mind.

Fair-value estimates in the short-term can be a poor indicator of an asset’s eventual worth, especially when markets aren’t functioning smoothly.

The problem with relying on management’s intentions is that they may be even less reliable.

At least now we’re getting some real numbers, even if you have to dig through the footnotes to get them.

> REGIONS FINANCIAL CORPORATION / Shareholder Information

UPDATE:

Elizabeth Warren "We Have A Real Problem Coming" via Zero Hedge

William Black goes in depth on the biggest theft in world history

Fun commercial real estate figures and charts Agnes Crane/Reuters

Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return Bloomberg

Bad, Bad Assets Floyd Norris / NYT

America’s Japanese banks Rolfe Winkler

Number Of The Day " Goodwill On Top 133 Listed German Companies Balance Sheets...."

I have written about this in the past ( see Thank God There is No Stress Test On Goodwill Assets Propping Up Bank Balance Sheets......... ) and i think this topic is indeed a ticking time bomb that will "wreck" numerous balance sheets. I´m pretty sure that this issue is similar around the globe and will pop up on a weekly basis.... Except there will be an accounting change not to mark these assets "mark-to market"..... Wouldn´t be the first time ....... :-)

Ich habe über diese Thematik bereits vorher ( siehe Thank God There is No Stress Test On Goodwill Assets Propping Up Bank Balance Sheets.........) geschrieben und ich bleibe dabei, das es sich hier um eine tickende Zeitbombe handelt die schon bald etliche Firmenbilanzen "ruinieren" wird. Da diese Problematik weltweit dieselbe ist dürften hier demnächst Meldungen im Wochenrhythmus Schlagzeilen machen.... Es sei denn es wird eine neue Bilanzierungsvorschrift aus dem Hut gezaubert die diese "Mark to Market" Bewertung aussetzt..... Wäre ja nicht das erste Mal........ :-)

Was waren das noch für Zeiten als es bis vor kurzem noch Vorschrift war die Übernahmen über mehrere Jahre konsequent abzuschreiben....... Da dies aber die kurzfristigen Gewinne belastet hat wurde nur allzu gern die erstbeste Möglichkeit ( Umstellung auf US GAAP/IFRS ) genutzt um diese "Belastung" zu vermeiden.... Wie sich jetzt zeigt hat dies die Bilanzen nicht gerade "wetterfester" gemacht und die Ergebnisse der letzten Jahre künstlich aufgebläht ( siehe aus dem Jahr 2004 WiWo Neuregelung der Goodwill-Abschreibung bewirkt Kurssprünge bei Dax-Werten )... .Argument war seinerzeit die bessere Vergleichbarkeit mit den internationalen Wettbewerbern...... Großes Kompliment an das Handelsblatt !

The 133 leading German listed companies have ( thanks to the M&A madenss during the past few years ) accumulated $ 265 Billion in Goodwill. This equals 44 percent of their capital.

In the worst case scenario this would half the equity ratio from 40 to just over 20 percent.

For all the details on the 133 companies involved in the study see Handelsblatt Goodwill Checklist May 2009

Firmenbilanzen bergen immense Risiken Handelsblatt

Die führenden deutschen Konzerne ( 133 analysierte Firmen aus Dax, MDax, TecDax und SDAX durch eine Untersuchung des Handelsblatts in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Institut für Wirtschaftsprüfung (IWP) in Saarbrücken und der Unternehmensberatung Oliver Wyman ) haben nach der Übernahmewelle der vergangenen Jahren 189 Milliarden Euro an Firmenwert in den Büchern. Das entspricht fast der Hälfte ihres Eigenkapitals. Wegen der Rezession drohen nun massive Abschreibungen. Bei einem Dutzend Unternehmen ist die Situation brenzlig.

In den Bilanzen der führenden deutschen Konzerne standen Ende des vergangenen Geschäftsjahres noch 189 Mrd. Euro an Goodwill. Dieser Betrag entspricht knapp 44 Prozent des bilanzierten Eigenkapitals.

Das verdeutlicht, welch gefährliche Zeitbombe in den Zahlenwerken tickt: Nach Abzug des Firmenwerts würde sich die aktuelle Eigenkapitalquote von gut 40 Prozent annähernd halbieren.

> Wer mehr zu den Einzelfällen ( z.B. Telekom ) wissen möchte sollte sich den Link sowie Firmen können nicht mehr wegschauen & Firmen nutzen Frühwarnsystem nicht ( beide Handelsblatt ) zu Gemüte führen und zudem einen Blick in die Handelsblatt Goodwill Checklist Mai 2009 ( enthält alle 133 Unternehmen aus DAX,MDAX, TECDAX & SDAX) werfen.

I´m pretty sure "Frankfurt, London & Wall Street Finest" have already "considered" the bullet proof balance sheets into their as usual conservative forecasts ( see Abby Joseph Cohen 2009 vs Abby Joseph Cohen 2001.....Which Call Is Worse? & The Wall Street Clown Show via Michael Panzner & CNBC´s Dennis Kneale: "The Great Recession Is Over")....... ;-)

Bin mir sicher das die Experten aus Frankfurt, London & New Yorks all dies in Ihren wie gewohnt "konservativen" Prognosen berücksichtigt haben (siehe Abby Joseph Cohen 2009 vs Abby Joseph Cohen 2001.....Which Call Is Worse? & The Wall Street Clown Show via Michael Panzner & CNBC´s Dennis Kneale: "The Great Recession Is Over")......... ;-)

Number Of The Day "Credit Explosion In China"

This almost surreal number is signalling a real panic among the leaders...This time i hope that the sky high published number is as credible as other statistics ( see China´s National Bureau Of Statistics Is Funny..... ) .And if you read the update at the end of the post there is a good chance that at least some of the increase isn´t "real" .....If you want more excellent insight on China the blog China Financial Markets from Prof. Michael Pettis is a must read!

Diese unheimliche Zahl signalisiert ne echte Panik der chinesischen Führung....Muß zugeben das ich beim Ausmaß dieser Steigerungsraten diesesmal sogar hoffe das die Zahlen so wenig glaubwürdig sind wie ansonsten auch ( siehe China´s National Bureau Of Statistics Is Funny..... ). Und wenn man sich das Update am Ende des Postings durchliest sieht es in der Tat so aus als wenn zumindest ein Teil des aberwitzigen Zuwachses nicht "real" ist...... Wenn Ihr mehr Information aus erster Hand betreffend China haben wollt empfehle ich dringend China Financial Markets von Prof. Michael Pettis !

Will China have to choose between social stability and long-term growth?

Reuters has just announced that net new lending may have actually been and even more surprising RMB 1.6 trillion – twice the previous monthly record and an amazing one-third of credit growth in all of 2008. We will know by February 15 at the latest, when the PBoC publishes lending data, but if this is true (and the report was seen as highly credible by one of my friends at Reuters / SEE UPDATE) it will probably goose the stock market up further while making people like me more worried then ever. Since for me much of the Chinese growth explosion of the past several years was caused by a badly allocated credit boom, the idea that the solution to a slowdown is to jack up the credit boom even further is very worrying. It is a little like the idea that the best way for the US to adjust to the decline in its debt-fueled household consumption binge is to replace it with a debt-fueled government consumption binge

I wonder what percentage of the loans will default........ This credit explosion also might shed some light on the recent events we have seen in the Baltic Dry Index ( see Baltic Dry, Winning Streaks, and China via Bespoke )

Möchte nicht wissen welcher Prozentsatz dieser Ausleihungen in 24 Monaten als notleidend deklariert werden muß......Diese Kreditexplosion läßt zudem die letzte erfreuliche Entwicklung im Baltic Dry Index ( siehe Baltic Dry, Winning Streaks, and China via Bespoke ) zumindest in einem etwas anderem Licht erscheinen.....

UPDATE:

Looks like his Reuters source was spot on....

Sieht so aus als wenn seine Reutersquelle zeimlich zuverlässig ist .....

China money and credit growth rises sharply / Reuters

BEIJING, Feb 12 (Reuters) - New lending surged at a record pace in January and money growth also perked up as Chinese banks heeded the government's call to extend more credit to support the economy.

Banks extended a whopping 1.62 trillion yuan ($237 billion) in new loans in January, almost a third as much as they lent in all of 2008, the People's Bank of China said.

The surge provided evidence that state-owned banks are doing Beijing's bidding and providing financing for the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package announced on Nov. 9. The central government will fund only 30 percent of the plan itself.

Nearly 40 percent of January's new loans were in the form of discounted bill financing, which firms use for short-term cash needs. Some also reinvest the money, which can be borrowed for just 1.5 percent, in higher-yielding certificates of deposit.

..... economists said January's lending was probably inflated by banks bringing some off-balance sheet loans onto their books since the central bank scrapped quotas late last year in a bid to help the economy.

Here are more details from Prof. Pettis

....there is clearly an increase in lending games aimed at making policymakers happy by showing fat loan books. One of my students just visited me today with an example that involved his father. I don’t want to get into too much detail, for obvious reasons, but the net effect of the transaction involving his father was that an entity was created to borrow money from a bank, the proceeds of which were deposited in a CD, which was then assigned in ownership to the real borrowing entity, which then used the CD as collateral for the “real” loan. Aside from the complications used probably to get around credit restrictions, one single loan was recorded as two loans plus a CD deposit. Apparently the lending bank knew about all the intermediate steps. Surprise, surprise! It turns out that if your career prospects depend on increasing the total amount of loans outstanding, with less focus on the quality or structure of the loans, in fact it isn’t hard to show very nice, fat loan book.

As for the sudden surge in lending, this looks to me to be an accounting exercise, clearing or otherwise funding non-bank debts piled up by SOEs. Many large SOEs (not central ones, regional/local ones, though the central ones win no prize themselves) are behind on paying wages, suppliers etc, and the stimulus provided by this lending surge is really just to ease the log-jam of triangular debts. This implies that there will not be much “bang” for all of this lending

Would be great if only a small fraction of the loans would make sense like financing the Chinalco / Rio Tinto & Russia, China sign $25 billion energy deal deals..... ( well, read the 2nd update and it seems clear that this isn´t the case..... )

Wäre wünschenswert wenn zumindest ein Bruchteil der vergebenen Kredite soviel Sinn machen würden wie die Finanzierung des Chinalco / Rio Tinto & Russia, China sign $25 billion energy deal Deals..... ( verweise auf das 2. Update und es ich nicht wirklich überraschend festzustellen das die sinnvolle Verwendung wie nicht anders zu erwarten mit der Lupe gesucht werden muß .....)

2nd Update :

So Much For Stimulus: Chinese Loans Diverted to Stocks, Feeding Rally Naked Capitalism

Chinese companies may be using record bank lending to invest in stocks, fueling a rally that’s made the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index the world’s best performer this year, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.

As much as 660 billion yuan ($97 billion) may have been converted by companies into term deposits or used to buy equities, Li Huiyong, Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said in a phone interview today, citing money supply figures.

China’s banks lent a record 1.62 trillion yuan in January as part of a government drive to stimulate the world’s third- largest economy, while M2, the broadest measure of money supply, climbed 18.8 percent from a year earlier.

The Shanghai Composite has surged 29 percent since the start of 2009, compared with a 10 percent decline in the MSCI World Index.

Number Of The Day "Japan´s Export Plunge Record 27 Percent"

WOW! The strong Yen didn´t help......... I expect that the entire currency complex has the potential to become the next "battleground" ( hopefully not combined with "trade wars" see Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. from Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)........ The race to the bottom is already underway..... Let´s hope that we won´t see a crash of a major currency ( british Pound )...... At least there will be always a bull market ( one weak vs another less weak currency)..... Got Gold......?

Donnerwetter! Bleibt zu hoffen das wir als vergleichbare Exportnation etwas besser abschneiden...... Denke den Japanern wird gerade jetzt der erstarkte Yen nicht sonderlich gefallen..... Ich befürchte das uns das Thema Wechselkurse in den kommenden Jahren desöfteren heimsuchen wird ( hoffnetlich nicht auch in Form von "Handelskriegen" siehe auch Has Beggar Thy Neighbor Started? via Naked Capitalism & The Major Risks for 2009: Tariffs, Wars, Currency, etc. von Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg via Infectious Greed)...... Der Versuch die Währung möglichst schwach zu halten ist weltweit bereits im vollen Gange. Ich würde mir nur wünschen das wir das ohne Kollaps eine der größeren Währungen überstehen. Denke da besonders an das britische Pfund...... Immerhin ermöglichen diese Märkte immer einen garantierten Bullenmarkt ( schwache vs einer wenigen schwachen Währung ) ...... Got GOLD?

Thanks to Bespoke

Japan Exports Plunge Record 27% as Recession Deepens Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports plunged the most on record in November as global demand for cars and electronics collapsed, signaling more factory shutdowns and job cuts are likely as the recession deepens.

Exports fell 26.7 percent from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. That was more than the 22.3 percent decline estimated by economists and the sharpest since comparable data were made available in 1980.

Shipments to the U.S. slid an unprecedented 34 percent and sales to China slumped the most in 13 years

The government today lowered its assessment of the world’s second-largest economy, saying it’s “worsening” for the first time since 2002. Gross domestic product shrank in the past two quarters, sending Japan into its first recession since 2001.

Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and Sony Corp. are among the companies that are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits dwindle. Car exports slid 32 percent last month, the most ever, and semiconductors slumped 29 percent, the ministry said.

UPDATE : Toyota Forecasts First Operating Loss in 71 Years on Yen, Sales

Compounding the drop in demand is the stronger yen, which erodes overseas profits. Every 1 yen gain against the dollar and euro trims Toyota’s annual operating profit by 40 billion yen and 6 billion yen, according to the company. The carmaker in November based its second-half earnings outlook on 100 yen to the dollar and 130 yen to the euro.

Today’s report showed the global recession is spreading to the emerging markets that propped up exports as demand from the U.S. and Europe evaporated. Exports to Asia fell 27 percent, the most in 22 years. Shipments to China, Japan’s largest trading partner, tumbled 25 percent, the steepest decline since 1995.

Exports to Europe slid 31 percent, the second-most ever.

Number Of The Day " Percentage Of US Companies With A Junk Rating"

This at the start of a deep and long recession...... After the events of the last 3 month it is valid to wonder how much of this debt will get bailed out ( GM....) or will end up without much disclosure on the Fed´s balance sheet......I wonder how many companies are now on the brink of bankruptcy just because they decided to make big debt financed stock buybacks or megalomaniac takeovers & buyouts......

Diese Zahl bereits am Anfang einer schweren und langwierigen Rezession bedeutet nichts Gutes..... Nach den Ereignissen der letzten 3 Monate darf man wohl berechtigt fragen wieviel von diesem Junk entweder ein Bailout ( GM.... ) bekommen wird oder gar ohne großartige Transparenz in der immer weiter explosionsartig wachsenden Fed Bilanz verschwinden wird..... Tragischerweise befinden sich etliche dieser Unternehmen nur dank massiver schuldenfinanzierter Aktienrückkaufprogramme und größenwahnsinniger schuldenfinanzierter Übernahmen ( denke vor allem an Private Equity aber leider auch an den Fall Siemens VDO, Conti, Schaeffler ) in dieser wohl letzlich "tödlichen" Situation.......


WSJ Junk-Bond Market Has Closed the Door
Yields Upward of 20% Make It Too Pricey for Borrowers; Zero Deals Made It in November

About 50% of U.S. companies have below-investment-grade credit ratings, making the $750 billion junk-bond market a vital source of financing for car makers, airlines, retailers, utilities, restaurant chains and media companies

>The next chart is making things even scarier........ Within the "junk" label the remaining "quality" has deterioting fast and furious especially over the past few years..........

> Der nächste Chart macht alles nur noch erschreckender...... Innerhalb des "Junkuniversums" hat sich zudem die Qulität besonders im Laufe der letzten jahre massiv verschlechtert......

Number / Shocker Of The Day "Volvo New Truck Orders".....

Despite the market terror a nice weekend......

Trotz allem ein schönes Wochenende.....


Bloomberg

Volvo said it received 115 order bookings for heavy trucks in Europe in the quarter, down from 41,970 trucks a year earlier. Customers in Europe are taking a ``wait and see'' attitude amid turmoil in global financial markets, Volvo said.

The following table is from the Volvo website. Some readers questioned the data but unfortunately the ordernumber for Europe was no typo. UPDATE :It´s safe to say that cancellations are playing a big part..... There were obvioulsy no cancellations in 2007.....

Die nachfolgende Tablle ist direkt von der Volvo Präsentation Hatte wie einige Leser ebenfalls leichte Bedenken das sich hier evtl. der Fehlerteufel eingeschlichen hat. Ist leider nicht der Fall. Die Orderzahl ist wirklich so schaurig....... UPDATE: Der Löwenanteil des Rückganges liegt in den Stornierungen begründet. Da diese Zahl auf gleicher Basis wie im Jahr 2007 ( mit offensichtlich keinen oder nur wenigen Stornierungen ) berechnet worden ist bleibt sie leider repräsentativ

	Third quarter		Change	First nine months		Change
Number of trucks	2008	2007	in %	2008	2007	in %
Europe	115	41,970	(100)	48,333	133,584	(64)
North America	7,578	7,486	1	19,611	16,187	21
South America	5,096	3,578	42	13,639	12,752	7
Asia	14,607	12,863	13	43,067	37,574	15
Other markets	4,676	5,675	(18)	19,823	17,647	12
Total	32,072	71,572	(55)	144,488	217,744	(34

UPDATE:

The downturn in demand in Europe has been more severe than previously expected. The financial turmoil and credit tightening has led to a very cautious approach among customers when it comes to deciding on investing in new trucks. During the quarter, gross order intake in Europe amounted to approximately 20,000 trucks, consisting of both new customer orders and some changed orders. The explanation to why the net order intake only amounted to 115 trucks is that a review of the order book was carried out in close cooperation with customers. The review resulted in that approximately the same number of orders that were received during the quarter was taken out of the order book

Don´t know what to make of this...... Either they inflated orders in the past or they are trying to say in a very complicated way that they had huge cancellations.....

Keine Ahnung wie genau Volvo das meint..... Entweder die haben in der Vergangenheit die Orderzahl künstlich gen Norden gepusht oder Volvo probiert hier sehr verklausoliert zu berichten das die Stornierungen gigantisch waren......

Number Of The Day "Stock Buybacks From Financials In 2007"

They really deserve the bailout........Sarcasm off....... At least Lehman has gone gone bust. There is no way i can hide my SCHADENFREUDE when reviewing their buyback orgy ( see I Want My Buyback Back....Lehman Edition )

Wer so sorgsam mit seinen Geldern hausgehalten hat verdient jeden noch so großen Bailout...... Immerhin hat es Lehman erwischt. Die haben sich in den vergangenen Jahren eine Aktienrückkauforgie der ganz besonderenArt geleistet ( siehe I Want My Buyback Back....Lehman Edition ). Ich probiere erst gar nicht meine Schadenfreude und Genugtuung darüber zu verbergen...... Ein aus deutscher Sicht besonders tragisches Beispiel an den Irrglauben des Aktienrückkaufes spielt sich gerade in Real Time bei Daimler ab ( I Want My Buyback Back.....Daimler Is Doubling Down Again ). Es bereitet fast körperliche Schmerzen mitanzusehen wie die einst gesunde Kapitalstruktur im Angesicht einer auf Jahre hinaus furchtbaren Automobilkonjunktur ohne Not durch den Schredder gedreht wird......


Marketbeat WSJ

Stock buybacks peaked in the third quarter of 2007, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s. Nearly $172 billion in shares were repurchased in the third quarter of 2007, right around when the market peaked, contributing to the one-year record of $589 billion in shares repurchased in 2007. The biggest contributor? Financials, which accounted for 20% of the buybacks in 2007.

Quote / Joke Of The Day .....

Funny....... Almost a running gag......

Wirklich der beste Witz den ich in diesem Jahr gehört habe........ Denke den werden wir in nächster Zeit noch öfter zu hören bekommen.....

Paulson : Banking system is 'safe and sound'
1:48 PM ET, Sep 15, 2008

via Marketwatch

Quote Of The Day On Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation

The follwing quote from Kevin Depew ( taken from Five Things You Need to Know: Not Your Father's Stagflation ) sums it up. Mish has another good take on this topic M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now

Die nachfolgende Aussage von Kevin Depew aus Five Things You Need to Know: Not Your Father's Stagflation trifft den Nagel auf den Kopf. Wie üblich hat auch Mish etwas zu diesem Thema beizutragen M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now . Wie bereits mehrmals betont stimme ich mit Mish überein das bei richtiger Definitionsauslegung ( siehe Inflation: What the heck is it? ) zukünftig zumindest in einigen westlichen Ländern wohl eher eine Deflationsdebatte zu führen ist.

"Stagflation is simply the transition from credit expansion to credit contraction, leading inevitably to deflation."

Needless to say that the Fed & Co have always the agenda to reverse this trend William Poole : "The Fed Wants To Create Inflation" . All the latest efforts ( lending facilities, low interest rates in the face of sky high consumer prices, rebate checks, etc ) & baliouts we have seen recently are clearly a sign of desperation and fear that they will lose the battle this time ...... Next step probably over the weekend the nationalisation of Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac

Überfllüssig zu erwähnen das die Fed & Co grundsätzlich die Agenda haben ( schließe da ausdrücklich die EZB mit ein ) Inflation extrem zu begünstigen William Poole : "The Fed Wants To Create Inflation" . Die letzten Aktionen ( diverse neue Programme zur Kreditversorgung von Banken und Investmentbanken, niedrige Leitzinsen im Angesicht explodierender Konsumentenpreise, usw. ) sowie diverse Baliouts zeigen immer verzweifelter werdende Versuche den deflationären Trend umzukehren..... Nächste Aktion dürfte die Verstaatlichung von Phony Mae & Fraudie Mac. Würde mich nicht wundern wenn es hier bereits am Montag Neuigkeiten gibt......

Chart Of The Day " CDS On 10yr US Treasuries

There is no free lunch..... Looks like some are questioning the AAA rating of the US..... :-) And with future liabilities from roughly $ 40 to 50 trillion ( growing $ 3-4 trillion p.a. - see If we are Rome, Wall Street's our Coliseum ) only the rating agencies and their bullet proof models are able to justify/create this rating ..... Got GOLD?

Ist das nicht herrlich.... Die Kreditabsicherung gegen einen möglichen Zahlungsausfall von US Staatspapieren ist im Zuge der ganzen täglichen Balioutaktionen geradezu explodiert. Sieht so aus als wenn einige Marktteilnehmer das AAA Rating der USA ernsthaft in Frage stellen... :-) Bei knapp 40 - 50 Billionen $ an zukünftigen Zahlungsverpflichtungen die zudem jährlich momentan ohne all die Bailouts mit ca. 3-4 Billion $ anwachsen ( siehe If we are Rome, Wall Street's our Coliseum ) ist die Sorge eigentlich kaum verständlich. Immerhin haben die Ratingagentuen in einem Ihrer unfehlbaren Modelle die AAA Einschätzung trotz dieser Daten etliche Male bestätigt . Hoffe man hat meinen Sarkasmus heraushören können..... Got GOLD?

Actual numbers: cost of protecting US government debt up 2 basis points to 22bp at close Tuesday, exceeding March all-time-high of 20bp. “In normal times, the spread [full stop] is less than 2bp.”

Hat tip HT Alea: & FT Alphaville

UPDATE: Here is more on this topic from Michael Panzner

The Beginning of the End for America's AAA Rating?

There is no doubt that talk of a bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has spurred what could be a short-lived spike. Still, it makes you wonder if the market is starting to price in what many say is inevitable after years of profligacy and failed policies: a credit downgrade for the United States.

Joke Of The Day...."Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Are Adequately Capitalized"

Kevin Depew has a good edition on Fraudie Mac & Phony Mae in his Five Things You Need to Know that is worth reading in total. Keep his following comment in mind when you hear the following quote"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are adequately capitalized."...... Unfortunatley almost everybody has used this phrase and it is a clear sign that Bernanke, Paulson & Co don´t care about their credibility and their institutions. Nothing really new. On the other hand they have probably no other choice than consistanly lying almost every time they open their mouth... One of my all time favourites is their "strong $ policy" It is working just fine for a long time goldbug :-) Others ( Wall Street Finest, Politicians ) that use this nonsense maybe really believe what they say. I don´t know what is worse....

Kevin Depew hat erneut eine gute Fraudie Mac und Phony Mae Edition in seinen Five Things You Need to Know zusammengestellt ( kompletter Link empfehlenswert ). Sein Kommentar zum folgenden Zitat "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are adequately capitalized." trifft den Nagel auf den Kopf. Dieser Satz ist in den letzten Tagen befehlsartig von jedem wiederholt worden der sich zu diesem Thema von offizieller Seite geäußert hat. Wenig verwunderlich auch das Bernanke und Paulson mehrmals diesen Schwachsinn wie in Trance heruntergebetet haben. Dies zeigt einmal mehr das denen die Glaubwürdigkeit Ihrer Personen und vor allem deren Institutionen nicht das schwarze unter dem Fingernagel wert zu sein scheint. Keine wirklich neue Erkenntnis.... Zu deren Verteidigung sei angefügt das die Welt und besonders die US Bürger die ungeschminkte Wahrheit wohl kaum ertragen könnten. Aber das jetzt fast jedes Mal wenn einer der Beiden den Mund aufmacht nur noch Peinlichkieten herauskommen ist schon krass..... Ich als Goldbug amüsiere und bedanke mich beinahe täglich zudem über die inwzischen legändere"strong $ policy" der Beiden...... Politiker die diesen Satz ebenfall in den Mund nehmen glauben evtl. tatsächlich daran. Ich weiß nicht was schlimmer ist......

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are adequately capitalized."

This is another misleading statement. Technically, based on the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) requirements, both companies have adequate capital cushions. But that's like jumping out of an airplane without a parachute and arguing on the way down over whether your shoes have the right government mandated soles. Yes, according to OFHEO guidelines, Fannie and Freddie have the right soles. But put in context, those shoes aren't going to be of much use when their feet hit the ground without a parachute

Quote Of The Day : Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Make Them `Insolvent,' Poole

Poole does ist again. After "The Fed Wants To Create Inflation" he is speaking out what everybody with common sense is knowing for years...... There is a reason why they have been labaled not only from this blogger Fraudie Mac & Phony Mae ..... As Yves from Naked Capitalism is pointing out Poole has been a long time critic of the GSEs.

Der ehemalige Fed Mitglied Poole fängt an mir zu gefallen. Nachdem er in "The Fed Wants To Create Inflation" bereits Klartext gesprochen hat legt er nun erneut nach und spricht aus was jeder mit eine gesunden Menschenverstand seit Jahren wissen muß. Das schließt natürlich alle an der Wall Street arbeitenden "Experten" aus......Habe mir bei der Bezeichnung in meinen früheren Postings nicht zu Unrecht die Bezeichnung Fraudie Mac & Phony Mae benutzt...... Traurig das man anscheinend erst die Fed verlassen muß um die ungeschminkte Wahrheit sagen zu können. Yves von Naked Capitalism weist darauf hin das Poole schon seit geraumer Zeit einer der ärgsten Kritiker der sog. GSEs gewesen ist.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Losses Make Them `Insolvent,' Poole Says

``Congress ought to recognize that these firms are insolvent, that it is allowing these firms to continue to exist as bastions of privilege, financed by the taxpayer,'' Poole, 71, who left the Fed in March, said in an interview.

Can´t wait what he has to say next week.......

Bleibt zu hoffen das er seinen Rhythmus aufrecht erhält und sich nächste Woche erneut zu Wort meldet.....

Hat tip to Calculated Risk for this bubblevision clip on the ongoing slump in Fraudie & Phony....

Dank an Calculated Risk für diesen Clip des wohl schlechtestens Wirtschaftssenders weltweit der die ungläubigen Reaktionen auf den fortlaufenden Abverkauf von Fraudie & Phony zeigt.....

Number / Farce Of The Day..... GDP Price Index / GDP Deflator

I think this time they have gone too far .... Reminds me somehow of "Fool´s Day".....

Ich denke diesemal sind Sie wirklich zu weit gegangen.... Das ganze erinnert mich irgendwie an den 1. April.......

U.S. economy grows at 3.9% pace in third quarter

Despite rising worries about commodity prices, the GDP price index, the broadest measure of price changes in the economy, rose just 0.8% annualized, matching a nine-year low. Inflation hasn't been lower since John F. Kennedy's administration."

Here is the nice rant (including a chart) from Barry Ritholtz on this topic I Call "Shenanigans" on GDP! & Hellasious from Sudden Debt is also "upset" in Hooray, Inflation Lowest Since 1963!! . Barry Ritholtz has also found this headline Inflation was low because oil prices surged. In GDP math, sometimes one plus one equals zero explaining how the "math" is working....

Und hier die ebenfalls deftige Meinung inklusive Chart von Barry Ritholtz zu diesem Thema I Call "Shenanigans" on GDP!. Hellasious von Sudden Debt feiert ebenfalls in Hooray, Inflation Lowest Since 1963!! kräftig mit. Diese Schlagzeile Inflation was low because oil prices surged. In GDP math, sometimes one plus one equals zero spricht für sich......

Number Of The Day....."Investor Sentiment"

WOW! Just waking up in Germany and looking at my screen. Asia and especially Honk Kong is up sharply, Gold at $ 793, the Greenback is tanking again, commodities are soaring, yields (of course) almost unchanged, US Futures are roaring higher.....

Was für Wochenstart! Gucke mir wie üblich gerade nach dem Aufstehen mal die Märkte an. Asien und besonders Hong Kong massiv gen Norden, etliche Indizes auf Rekordhöhen, Gold bei knappen 800$, Der US$ weiter im freien Fall, alle Rohstoffe auf dem Weg nach oben, Die Renditen (logischerweise) kaum verändert, US Futures massiv grün......

Fleckenstein

If you think of the return to sanity as a positive development, there's reason to be encouraged by Investors Intelligence's report, which recorded the most lopsided sentiment reading in many years. Last week, bulls stood at 62% and bears at about 19%. For anyone who's been around the stock market for any length of time, that is a clear warning sign.

On top of this i´ve found this chart from Ticker Sense October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll

Passend hierzu der October 22nd Blogger Sentiment Poll von Ticker Sense.

I hope you have seen this clip on investor sentiment. One of the best and funniest clips on this topic! One of the most prominent examples how quick the sentiment can change is the meltdown from Jim Cramer. A few days after this he raised his target for the Dow to 14500.....No kidding.....

Ich kann nur hoffen das Ihr diesen Clip zum "Investor Sentiment" schon gesehen habt. Mit Sicherheit einer des treffensten und zugleich lustigsten Beschreibungen zu diesem Thema. Eines der wohl bekanntesten Beispiele wie schnell die Stimmung umschlagen kann ist Jim Cramer der bereits einige Tage nachdem er das Ende der Welt prophezeit sein Kursziel für den DOW auf 14500 erhöht hat. Ein heisser Anwärter auf den Titel "Wendehals des Jahres" :-)

I would like to see a seperate poll for the sentiment in Hong Kong .......

Ich würde zu gerne eine seperate Investorenbefragung für Hong Kong sehen .........

The Hang Seng has now put on more than 11 per cent in the past week, and almost 55 per cent since its August low amid the credit squeeze.