As we said yesterday, there used to be a time you simply opened a newspaper or clicked an internet link, and simply read. The information was straightforward and any possible biases or agendas were usually transparent and didn't take much effort to understand what the writer's motives were.
Things noticeably changed over the last few years as the word 'recovery' crept into more and more economy and financial news stories until it became 'Fact'.
But see, the problem was that there has not been one single piece of definitively good news since the crash of 2008. Think about that. None. No dramatic decrease in unemployment.. No surge up in home prices.. Banks haven't started lending in force.. And if you say "what about the (artificially pumped) stock market?" then you are naive.
Simple example: you have the flu and along with it, a fever of 102.7-- you are feeling terrible. Now, you do not begin 'recovering' from the flu when your fever drops to 102.5. The beginnings of 'recovery' occur when your temperature dramatically drops to say 100.5. And when fever does break, that's stage 2 of your recovery, and so on.
Recovery from anything requires noticeable signs; stages of improvement...
Now we look at today's spin article and how it tries to bullshit a 'recovery'...
Pending Home Sales Plunge, Reaching Seven-Month Low (Reuters)- "Pending sales of existing U.S. homes dropped far more than expected in April to touch a seven-month low... dealing a blow to hopes of a recovery in the housing market. National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index dropped 11.6 percent to 81.9 in April, the lowest since September... Economists, who had expected pending home sales to fall 1.0 percent last month, said bad weather in some parts of the country might have affected home shopping."
~ Ok.. let's analyze this-- pending sales dropped double digits in One month and economists are rationalizing this as the result of bad weather? Has it never rained in April before? And as horrific and destructive as tornadoes are, does a prospective home buyer honestly say to him/herself "Hmm.. looks like tornadoes this week so I better hold off home shopping..." ???
continuing...
" "Higher gasoline may be making potential home buyers a bit cautious. It is signaling further weakness in housing, but we do expect housing to turn around later this year. It just hasn't happened yet.(according to NAR)"... The weak housing market is one the headwinds facing the economy as it makes a slow recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s. The economy grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter after expanding at a 3.1 pace in the last three months of 2010."
1) Who gave the quote? Reuters simply puts a quote and never attributes a source. I will assume its one of the many 'economists' the writer took the time to personally interview, but still.. who?? Maybe it was the world-renowned economist Abe Solut Lyar or the equally venerable Rich Lee N' Dow'd.
2) The sentence about housing, headwinds is being declarative; that this nation is fully in recovery and continues to be even with this or any other bad data. In other words, recovery is SO Strong, that it doesn't need good housing numbers or even good job data.. Hell.. it doesn't need anything tangible or real... just trust in us that we're recovering.
3) The difference between a 3.1% expansion and a 1.8% expansion is a decrease by 42%. The US economy DECREASED in its growth by 42% in One quarter. That doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy about our supposed 'recovery'.
It is kinda ironic just yesterday we analyzed another Reuters article spinning an increase in first-time unemployed as undeterring the 'recovery'.
~ We've said it often and say it again-- A&G wants recovery. We honestly do. We want the economy to improve and people back working, home prices stabilizing, etc.. We want nothing but good things...
But... We're not children either and don't want to be told of tooth fairies either.
We want a Sincere recovery based on real improvement and real progress. And not one based on collusion between politicians desperate to paint a picture of 'things are better' for re-election purposes, and a media that wants to make its readers and viewers feel good so they'll keep reading and watching.
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