Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Understanding the Dow- a cheat sheet

Boy: "Listen broker.. oil's taking a hit- get my $$ out NOW!"
Girl:  "Mmm, my Hero!"

The stock market has dropped 155pts so far to 12,604 as of 1:50p

And usually when the Dow drops, it is a very good thing

How is it 'good'?  The financial media tells us things are only good when the markets go Up, and they never lie or distort or have agendas, so what am I talking about?

Let's use today as a good example--  The Dow is down 155pts as of 1:50p.

Ok- why?

Its down because commodity prices have dropped..  as in oil..   as in today oil is at $99 as of 1:50p, dropping 4.2% since yesterday.  That means if gas stations adjusted prices down as quickly as they tend to adjust upwards, you would be paying a little bit less for gasoline tomorrow than today.

Also, the US dollar rose 0.5% vs other currencies;  in other words the dollar strengthened, albeit slightly.  The market i.e. investors and corporations want the US dollar as weak as humanly possible so businesses can make greater profits exporting even if American citizens suffer by paying more for everything.

Because this can get really complex, I designed a simple 'cheat sheet' so you can understand the markets better--

US Dollar:

Stronger dollar-- people pay less; smaller profit exporting-- market drops
Weaker dollar-- people pay more; businesses profit grows-- market goes Up

Oil:

Higher commodity price= more it costs to get fuel-- market goes Up
Lower commodity price= less it costs; less speculator profit-- market drops

Jobs:

Higher jobless= "bad" economy; more Fed assistance-- markets UP
Fewer jobless= "better" economy; less assistance-- market indifferent.

I could go on and on but those three areas are an accurate enough gauge of the stock market that it would be redundant to write more.

To some this may be obvious but I will state/restate nonetheless:  The stock market is not about the overall health of the economy or the economic strength of its citizenry- its about locking in profit.   There's no emotional ties or loyalties- you buy low and sell high and in the process you artificially pump up whatever it is you're invested it even if it hurts your neighbors, your nation or the global economy altogether.  Profits must be made Every day-  Simple.

You judge an improved economy in at least 1 of the following ways:

1)  Increased employment of fair-to-good paying jobs; educated workers
2)  Stabilization and increase of home values without Govt. propping
3)  Savings rates rise nationally- means people have more $$; less debt
4)  Stabilized currency allowing for stabilized prices

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