Thursday, June 16, 2011

Fearing Dominoes; fearing Unknowns


Been thinking a lot about Greece lately, as some of you perhaps have.  

Been thinking about the supposed Need for Greece to accept a second bailout from the IMF and the ECB and the arguments made by European policymakers, banks and financial media elite that if Greece defaults, it will essentially set up a domino effect- banks will fall, other economies will collapse, the Euro itself- gone.  The argument meant to be so frighteningly scary a possible scenario to a rationale person, that all thoughtful, calm analysis of the situation is to be pushed aside.

Currently the US is doing the same thing-  supposedly if we do not raise the debt ceiling and end up defaulting, the argument goes, it will unleash a domino effect of chaos and calamity.  We're told social security and medicare payments won't go out; told that the military won't get paid.  Told one terrible tale after another.. Every doomsday scenario to scare people into urging Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

A common thread: in both Greece and US's situation, the entities that would get hurt the most and deservedly so, would be holders of the debt- investors.

We were also told back in 2008, that if the US government did not bailout the banks, financials, stock markets, auto industry, housing, on & on, that it would cause a domino effect of the entire global economy eventually collapsing on itself.  And Congresspeople..grown men and women, were given the Riot Act, and scared to death by then Treasury Sec Hank Paulson to pass that initial $700 billion.  They did this without a Clue where that money was to go, or setting up conditions for the money to be used for any trail to find out what happened to the funds at a later point.

Congress cowered like cowardly children.  (say that real quick 10x)
The US is also currently fighting 4 wars including Libya and a secret bombing war in Yemen under the guise that if Al Qaeda is allowed a foothold in one nation, it will take it over, then start a domino effect where the rest of the Middle East and North Africa fall into line with the enemy's political and religious extremism.

It always comes back to dominoes.

Reminds me of the original 'domino theory' played out during the Cold War between the US and Soviets, particularly in the 1950s and 60's.   The argument was that the US had to stop Communism dead in its tracks because if it expanded into a neutral nation, it would expand like a cancer into a region, then eventually engulf the world.   Its why the US engaged in the Korean War (1950-53) costing 36,500 American lives and the Vietnam War (1955-75) costing over 58,000 US soldiers' lives.  

And that isn't even factoring the billions of dollars wasted to fight these wars thousands of miles away and prop up the military industrial complex.

And all the fear of Communism sweeping the world; all the lies taught those of that generation.. did it come to fruition?   No.    Vietnam did unite and become Communist but the entirety of the region did not.  And Communism did not spread throughout Asia and into other parts of the world as those 'experts' predicted.

And would the entire global financial system collapsed had entities like Goldman Sachs and AIG had been allowed to capitulate as they deserved?  No.   There would have been hardships for certain..  Probably a small-d depression, but globally we would have reset the economic system by now and begin coming out of that depression via a sincere recovery.  

Instead, we kicked the can down the road, increased global debt levels considerably, haven't fixed any of the systemic problems which caused the 2008 meltdown, and made the affects of the eventual crash 100x worse when it does occur.

And if Greece defaulted today, would that trigger another meltdown like the so-called financial experts say?   No.   Many banks in Europe would get hurt, but they'd either be recapitalized or the weaker ones would be allowed to fail.  Meanwhile the EU could preserve its capital instead of throwing it down the drain and the other nations wouldn't have the financial burden of bailing out its weakest link for the second time in two years.

Europe is quite resilient- it survived 2 World Wars.  It would survive a Grecian default and from the experience, become strengthened as a European Union, while weening out the weaker nations which hold the most systemic risks to its currency.

But that's just not how its done- the politicians and financial power elite prop the system with imaginary wires. And to get its way and cause fear amongst the masses, it always plays the same card--  the 'domino' card.

~ "Don't fear the Noid- I come in Peace-aaa..  Pun Pun Boing Boing!

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