Friday, June 10, 2011

The Great disconnect in one sentence

If you really, truly want to understand why there is such a great disconnect between politicians, investors, academics and the financial elites vs. the bottom 98% of the nation who are always the most adversely affected by misguided and destructive fiscal policies, the following sentence in a recent Financial Times article sheds light.

Regarding findings made by the McKinsey Global Institute that high US employment is forecast to persist for years, even beyond 2020 and that the US needs to create 21 million new jobs to keep up with population growth, Susan Lund, director of research for McKinsey said the following...

"A strong economic recovery is a precondition for full employment."

This is 100% Wrong.  Here is the truth:

Full employment is a precondition for a strong economic recovery.

Not vice versa.

This may seem like semantic wordplay but it is not.  There is an enormous difference in the two theories of thought.  Lund's sentence states the need of an economy to strengthen on its own First, and Then once this happens, you get employment.  Thus whatever it takes, no matter how many trillions is needed to give to banks, other financials and the global markets, that is what is necessary to get eventual job growth, and in time, full employment.

And as stated before, this is 100% Wrong.

You can not have a strong economic recovery without strong gains in employment, especially jobs that require education and pay a good wage.  It is these jobs which allow people to get off welfare and food stamps to start putting money back into the system via taxes.  It is These jobs that allow people the means to make their mortgage payments to avoid foreclosures and increase the housing glut, or purchase new homes which over time stabilizes the housing market.

And by extension by having occupied homes, property taxes can be collected on the local and state level to pay for teachers, police & fire, trash disposal and every other basic service we all take for granted.  When additional revenue comes in, states and municipalities don't have to have furloughs and mass layoffs in order to balance budgets. And when people are working and home values stabilized, they begin naturally rising which increases home equity and allows people greater personal freedoms and choices which come with increased wealth.

 Do you see the chain effect?   Prosperity and True recovery doesn't occur in a vacuum and it CAN NOT occur with any sustainability without employment.   Full employment comes Before any declaration of a 'strong economic recovery'

And until our political leaders truly understand the difference, we as a nation, the bottom 98% have no chance at a real, sustainable recovery.

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