What a Housing Double-dip looks like statistically

The US housing market is in a double-dip.  Even the media admits it, which tells you something since it takes quite a bit of bad news for them to get off the 'recovery' spin.

On June 16th, it was announced that housing starts (homes to be built) rose 3.5% in May vs April. This was meant to convey things were getting better in the housing market I suppose.  Also to gloss over the fact that housing starts had dropped 10% in April vs March.

So to get beyond all the month to month comparisons where the statistics are easily manipulated to suit whatever purposes the writer wishes from them, the real key to see where the housing market is currently is to compare it to 2008 right before the market meltdown occurred.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the US median home price was $196,600.  In the first quarter of 2011, the median home price was $158,700.  US homes lost on average $40,900 or approximately 21% of their value in 3 years.

NAR also does a study called "Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas".     It lists over 100 cities and metropolitan areas but here are some geographically diverse examples of 1st Quarter, 2011 vs 2008:

           City                                 2008              2011 1Q             $ Diff.
Albuquerque, MN                     $192,600           $167,700       -$24,900 (-13%)

Boston-Cambridge, MA            $361,100           $322,100       -$39,000 (-11%)

Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, FL         $152,600           $  91,800        -$60,800 (-40%)

Chicago--Naperille-Joliet, IL      $245,600           $155,000        -$90,600 (-37%)

Jacksonville, FL                        $174,600           $127,400        -$47,200 (-27%)

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV            $220,500           $128,300        -$92,200 (-42%)

Los Angeles-Santa Anna, CA    $402,100            $292,700        -$109,400 (-27%)

NY- Long Island                       $437,900            $375,900        -$62,000 (-14%

Orlando, FL                              $208,900            $119,700        -$89,200 (-43%)

Philadelphia-Wilmington, DE      $231,400            $199,100       -$32,300 (-14%)

Tucson, AZ                               $204,300            $123,100       -$81,200 (-40%)

Washington DC-Alexandria VA   $343,400           $294,800       -$48,600 (-14%)

The full list can be found at the following link:

http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/c290fd8046cb377a9c15bd93b050a879/REL11Q1T_rev.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=c290fd8046cb377a9c15bd93b050a879

So whenever you see news articles get excited because of a 2% gain in home starts or existing sales, just remember the following chart and understand there's very little if anything to be excited about after 3 years of recession.